Good evening to you all folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

No recession? Tell it to the Philly Fed biz expectations index which sank in April to the lowest level since Dec ‘08. You may want to buy those bonds back once the Treasury market begins to catch on that inflation has always declined, often significantly, in economic contractions.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

The action in EURUSD today is interesting but equally frustrating and confusing.
WE have a solid low at 1.0757 last week.
That level marks the end of wave (D) at the moment.

The price has risen off that level and even managed a break of the previous fourth wave high today.
But now we have a sharp drop back to flat on the day.
The pattern off the low so far is in three waves.
So the impulsive nature of this move is less than convincing.

Again I am forced to wait for a move that either confirms the bullish count,
or completely rules it out.

Tomorrow;
Wave (D) must hold at 1.0757.
There is a shrinking possibility that the rally off the low will continue higher and trace out five waves up over the next few sessions.
We will see.

Watch for a reversal higher to save the bullish count again.

GBPUSD

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GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable is holding above 1.2972 again this evening,
so the reversal pattern is still in play for now.

I have shown another count possibility for the move off the lows at wave ‘4’.
This involves a series of 1,2 patterns.
And todays higher low is wave ‘ii’ of (iii) as shown.

Tomorrow;
Watch for 1.2972 to hold again.
If wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is coming.
then we should see at least a push above 1.3147 again by tomorrow evening.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

The top of wave (1) is holding again today.
And now we have a solid candidate for a bearish impulse wave off the top.
Wave ‘ii’ did track higher in three waves to a lower high at the session high.
the price then reversed the spike and again we are pretty flat on the session.

If wave ‘iii’ is now underway,
then we should see a sharp decline take over tomorrow and break below 127.00 at a minimum.
Then we can look for a larger five wave pattern to complete next week in wave (i).

Tomorrow;
Watch for the high at 129.40 to hold.
Wave ‘iii’ down should now begin to accelerate lower again.

DOW JONES.

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The new pattern for wave (ii) is yielding some positive results today.

Wave ‘5’ of ‘c’ did break that 35384 minimum target,
and now this evening we have a reasonably sharp drop off the high.
it is too early to call this a confirmation move yet to begin wave (iii),
but at a minimum this is reasonable signal in favor of wave ‘i’ of (iii).
So that is where we must begin.

Tomorrow;
I want to see five waves down in wave ‘i’ to break below the previous shoulder support of wave ‘4’.
Wave ‘ii’ should use that shoulder as resistance then next week.

Watch for the market to continue lower in five waves tomorrow to build the case for wave ‘i’ of (iii).

GOLD

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Gold is catching a bid this evening as wave ‘i’ seems to be complete now.
I did want to see a break of the 1915 level in wave ‘i’.
But it looks like I will have to wait for wave ‘iii’ down for that to happen.

Wave ‘i’ does have a solid five wave internal pattern now.
and the move higher off the session low is viewed as wave ‘ii’.
The sooner wave ‘ii’ completes the better!
But this wave could hold onto the price for a few days in reality.

Tomorrow;
If we see a break of 1937 again that will signal wave ‘iii’ of (c) has begun.
Lets see how wave ‘ii’ corrects higher tomorrow.

CRUDE OIL.

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CRUDE OIL daily.

We have a possible three waves higher today in wave ‘b’ of (ii).
I cant be sure if wave ‘b’ is complete at the highs,
but the price gave up the gains again this afternoon,
so this could be an initial move lower into wave ‘c’ of (ii).
The minimum target for wave ‘c’ lies at the wave ‘a’ low of 99.98.
That is the level we should watch to find a low of this correction.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ to hold below 109.20.
If 105.00 holds tomorrow,
that will suggest wave ‘c’ is underway.

S&P 500.

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S&P 500 daily.

We have a decline off the wave ‘a’ high today.
and this action is now viewed as wave ‘b’ of (ii) underway.
If the main count is correct we will see a three wave rally in wave (ii) complete early next week.
and then we can look for wave (iii) down to begin.

I must admit that the drop today is very impulsive looking at the moment!
So the alternate count shows todays decline as wave ‘i’ of (iii) already underway.
We will see tomorrow if that count is now more likely than not.

Tomorrow;
WAtch for wave ‘b’ to hold above 4360, and wave ‘c’ to begin a rally back into 4514 at the wave ‘a’ high.

If we break 4360 and do not rally back by tomorrow evening then I will favor the alternate count here.

SILVER.

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SILVER daily.

Silver managed to drop sharply again this morning and hit 24.41 at the lows.
that completes a clean five wave decline in wave (i) of [iii].
And now its time to look for wave (ii) of [iii] to create a lower high as shown.

The price has bounced this evening again and I have labelled this as wave ‘a’ of (ii).
The previous wave ‘iv’ lies at 25.26 so that becomes the target for wave (ii) now.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘a’ and ‘b’ to create a higher low above 24.40 again.
Wave (ii) will take a few more days to complete at this point.