Good evening to you all folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

If this chart is correct, and I think it is, then the U.S housing market is in for a HUGE price shock.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

Nothing to report this evening on EURUSD!
I have to admit,
I have been consistently surprised by the strength displayed by the USD over the last month.
And That strength has brought EURUSD to within a 120 pips of breaking below this long term pattern invalidation line at 1.0635.
And today the price remains within a shout of breaking that level again.
So realistically I am just waiting to confirm or deny this wave count right now.
It is very likely that wave (D) will break below 1.0757 again tomorrow and if that happens again I will be forced to review all counts up to the daily and weekly level again.
That is how critical 1.0635 is at the moment.

Tomorrow;
It seems like too much to ask at the moment,
but a rally in EURUSD needs to happen to save the long term triangle count.
1.0923 is key in the short term.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

It happens again in cable.
The promising move off the lows last week is now only pips from breaking here.
the rally last week is impulsive and in five waves internally,
so it qualifies as wave ‘i’.
but the decline off that wave ‘i’ high at 1.3147 is very close to invalidation that wave (i) idea off the low.
As with EURUSD,
cable will just have to prove the wave (i) concept here f I need to rework the higher degree count in wave ‘4’ red again.

Tomorrow;
If we see a break above wave ‘i’ at 1.3147 then the bullish count holds.
Anything short of that will mean invalidation for wave (i).

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

If we take a look at the 4hr count in USDJPY tonight the triangle wave ‘4’ is pretty clear and a solid interpretation I think.
Then out of that we expected a rally into wave ‘5’ and that is exactly what has happened.
Now this rally has gone on and extended beyond what I thought was possible for sure,
but here is the crux of the matter.

A triangle is either wave ‘B’ or wave ‘4’,
and a rally out of a triangle is one of 2 choices.
A rally in a ‘C’ wave,
or a rally in a fifth wave.
That is the nature of an elliot wave structure!

so this rally will end sooner rather than later I think.
And the decline to come should prove to retrace most of this fifth wave in the end.

Tomorrow;
As with the other USD pairs,
I am just waiting for a signal off the top here.

Wave (v) has a good internal structure so we are very close to a top again.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The dow is holding onto this second wave structure again today.
The price broke out of the lower high at last nights close.
and now we have a larger second wave structure in place.
A possible triangle wave ‘b’ does account well for the internal overlap over the last few days,
but today we have a simple impulsive spike out of that triangle signaling a ‘c’ wave rally.
That completes three waves up in wave ‘ii’,
and another break of the 62% retracement level of wave ‘i’ again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a reversal off this lower high to begin wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
The high of wave (ii) at 35284 must hold now.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

The decline this evening in gold is looking promising as an impulsive move.
This action is in line with the idea of a three wave rally into the wave (b) high,
so while this is not a confirmation of the larger count yet,
it is definitely a big vote in favor of the wave (c) idea now.

Tomorrow;
I want to see a break of wave ‘b’ at 1915 to complete wave ‘i’,
so there is a bit to go in this d3ecline if that is likely to happen.

So,
watch for five waves down to break 1915 and complete wave ‘i’.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

I am eating some humble pie this evening after todays action!

I have not given up on the idea of a [c] wave rally into the 117 area to complete wave ‘2’.
But this selloff has raised some questions at least.

IF the main wave count for wave ‘2’ is wrong,
and the wave ‘2’ top is already in at that 116.25 high.
Then the lower high created today is wave [ii] of ‘3’.
and if that is the case,
then wave [iii] of ‘3’ is staring right at us now.

I am keeping this idea as a distant alternate now.
Only a break of the 92 handle again will triggers this count.

This evening I have reworked wave [c] again with a possible wave [i] and [ii] higher low now completing.
Wave (iii) of [c] will rally again later this week in this scenario.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to complete a higher low as shown.
Wave (iii) will be confirmed with a break of 109.20 again.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

Another day, another count for the S&P!

I have moved the wave count up by one degree on the hourly chart.
This does not change the dynamics for the count at all.

The action today is again corrective to the upside so far.
And with that pattern,
it opens up another possibility for wave (i) down.

The main pattern now shows a five wave decline into wave (i) still underway.
Todays three wave move higher is shown as wave ‘iv’ of (i),
and this suggests a further decline into wave ‘v’ is yet to complete.

Once wave (i) completes this week,
I will be looking for a larger correction higher into wave (ii) as shown.
So there is more corrective action ahead for the S&P at least over the next week I suspect.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) to complete with a break of 4360 again.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Todays decline in silver has taken the pressure off the main wave count now.
The decline is sharp enough and deep enough to consider wave (i) of [iii] now underway.
I would like to see a little more downside in wave (i),
possibly a drop into the 24.60 area again would be ideal.
But there is enough sub waves already in place to call wave (i) technically complete.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (i) to complete tomorrow.
We might even see the initial move higher into wave (ii) tomorrow evening.

Wave (ii) will be brief if the overall pattern is about to accelerate into a large wave [iii] down as I suspect,
we will see soon enough.