Good evening to you all folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

It’s a shorter week than normal this week with the market closed for good Friday.

Despite that fact, I do think we have some very interesting patterns in the works this week, with the possibility of a ‘shock move’ coming our way in a few markets.

so without further adieu, here we go.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

Another days trade and the support at 1.0806 continues to hold.
There is very little to add today generally,
the move off Fridays low has potential to the upside,
but we do not have any confirmation yet of a turn higher into wave (i) of [iii].
so I am waiting for that initial move to begin a five wave rally into wave (i) this week.

Tomorrow;
1.0806 must continue to hold.
Watch for wave (i) to take the price higher in five waves this week.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable continues to drift around the 1.30 handle again today.
There is a small three wave move higher off Fridays low in place.
I view this as wave ‘iv’ of (v).
with one more step lower left in wave ‘v’ to complete the larger wave (v) blue.

I will be looking for a rally to begin in wave (i) this week as shown,
but I am just goin to have to be patient until that turn higher happens.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (v) to complete this very long and arduous correction in wave ‘4’ over the next few sessions.
Wave (i) up is expected before the end of this week.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

After todays rally it is now possible to count the recent rise as an impulsive structure.
That does not change my view in terms of the count.
I still believe we will see a significant selloff into wave (2) over the coming months,
but how we get there in the short term is now up for debate.

The easiest way to view this new high today is as a ‘B’ wave top of an expanded flat correction wave (2).
I am not against that view and I have labelled this as the most likely.
And wave ‘C’ down can still be expected to begin this week.

There is also the possibility that this new high is only now completing wave (1) blue,
so in that case I will be expecting a top to form in wave ‘5’ of (1) over the coming days.
And then wave (2) should begin in earnest.

As you can see,
right now I am on the fence here!
We will see where we stand in a few days when this rally reverses.
At the moment I am just waiting for the market on this one.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

Well I can tell you one thing for sure,
that is,
I am really learning to exercise my patience these days!

We can see that todays trade does not really offer us much to bite our teeth into.
The market is off a little from Fridays highs again,
but there has not been any telling support break yet,
and the action is not giving much away either.

It is pretty simple this week in terms of the pattern.
If this is an impulsive move lower,
then we must have a support break at 34100 as wave ‘iii’ down takes over.
And if the next wave down is wave ‘iii’ of (iii),
then the potential for an acceleration to the downside is real.
And that acceleration is the next thing on the menu here.
So again, patience is the key.

Tomorrow;
The price must hold below 35100 at the wave ‘ii’ high.
And wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ is expected to begin this week.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold broke above 1966 today and that has invalidated the previous triangle count for wave (b).
I don’t think this action rules out the corrective nature of the recent action to be honest.
But the pattern in wave (b) has changed this evening.

After reaching a slight new high in wave (b) today,
the price immediately reversed in another impulsive looking spike lower.
I now view this as wave ‘i’ of (c).
and that wave (c) down should continue lower in five waves for the rest of this week at least.

Tomorrow;
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (c) to fall back below the wave ‘b’ low at 1915.
A lower high from here in wave ‘ii’ will confirm wave (c) is underway.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

It is funny how the rouble is back to pre war levels,
and now crude is back to pre war levels also.
That fact just strikes me as interesting at the very minimum.
Or downright confounding the more you think about it!

Crude is hovering over the support at 92.31 again today.
I am still waiting for a move higher to begin in wave [c] of ‘”‘,
but so far all signs of that rally are missing.

The alternate count will allow for wave ‘3’ down to begin now and in that scenario we will see continued declines over the coming month,
but right now,
I do not favor this interpretation.

Tomorrow;
If wave [c] of ‘2’ is going to begin this week,
then I would prefer to see wave (i) of [c] break to the upside tomorrow.
I expect wave (i) will break the 100.00 handle at a minimum when complete,
and wave (ii) should form a higher low by midweek.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P is getting close to that 4420 level at the wave ‘a’ high this evening.
That level has been selected as a signal line for the beginning of wave (i) of [iii] over the last few weeks.
If we see that level does break,
then it will immediately rule out an impulsive pattern for wave (c) of [ii].
Rather than the three wave pattern I have been working with.
And then we can look lower with confidence into wave wave (i) of [iii].

Tomorrow;
Watch for the market to break below that support level and continue lower to trace out a five wave pattern in wave ‘iii’ of (i) for the rest of this week.
4525 should hold as wave ‘iii’ down develops.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver has also thrown out the previous pattern after todays action.
The alternate count for wave (ii) was triggered today,
and wave (ii) now shows a clear three wave pattern within that trend channel.
The price also spike lower off the top of the session,
and this decline is large enough to consider wave ‘i’ of (iii).

Tomorrow;
The wave (ii) high must hold now,
and wave (iii) down is expected to make a large move lower over the next few days.

Wave ‘i’ of (iii) should push back into the 24.00 level ideally.