Good evening to you all folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD has all but reached the trigger line for this new wave count.
The pattern in wave [ii] will complete an expanded flat correction with a break of 1.0900.
Wave (c) will break the wave (a) low at that level.
And wave [ii] must then hold above the 1.0806 low at wave (D).
Things are now pretty simple from here,
the price must reverse higher into wave [iii] this week to confirm wave (E) is underway.

Tomorrow;
1.0806 must hold.
Watch for wave (c) of [ii] to complete and wave [iii] to begin.
A break above 1.1100 again will be enough to signal wave (i) of [iii] has begun.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

I am looking at a different interpretation for wave (iv) today,
as the price just pipped above the limit for last nights count for wave (v).
This new count is showing a larger wave (iv) triangle,
with todays high completing wave ‘e’ of (iv).

Tomorrow;
The price has fallen out of that wave (iv) triangle this evening.
And that now begins wave (v) down.
I am not expecting a big new leg lower into wave (v) from here,
but at a minimum we need to see a break of 1.2996.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

The plot thickens for USDJPY today!
The price pretty much rallied out out of the box today so that ruled out a larger wave [b] as expected last night.
we simply went straight into wave [c].
The rally in wave ‘B’ now has a clear three wave form in place.
And wave ‘B’ has reached into the 62% retracement level of wave ‘A’.
The next step for this pattern is to reverse lower again into wave ‘C’ over the coming week,
with the minimum target at 121.28 at the wave ‘A’ low.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [c] of ‘B’ to top out possibly overnight.
The wave [b] low lies at 122.42,
so a break of that level again will signal wave ‘B’ is complete and wave ‘C’ is underway.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

Another pretty flat trade today so we have not learned much to add to the wave count here.
The high of wave (ii) is still intact,
the drop off that high has formed a minor impulsive pattern to begin wave ‘i’ down.
But we do not have any follow through to the downside to confirm wave ‘i’ yet.

We see to be in a type of suspended animation at the moment.
The market is looking for its que to begin the next stage of this pattern.
God only knows what that will be,
but if this short term count is correct in wave (ii).
Then something will come soon enough,
to provide the reasoning for the next wave of selling.
It may be a small bankruptcy or even something insignificant lick an off the cuff remark from an official.

I did have a pretty instant and off topic thought just now!

When this developing recession actually is acknowledged in the west,
the war in Ukraine will disappear from the headlines.
We are a society that is just tripping forward from one ‘crises’ to the next now.
I think the economic crises that is coming will flatten us this time though!

Tomorrow;
I am not totally convinced by the initial move off the wave (ii) high yet.
I want to see a sharp drop below 34100 again at the wave ‘a’ high to signal this pattern has turned down into wave (iii).

Watch for the high at wave (ii) to hold and wave ‘i’ of (iii) to continue lower in five waves.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Its a similar take on gold tonight!
The action today has not given any clues that wave ‘iii’ down is underway yet.
1890 is still the key level here.
And wave ‘iii’ of (c) will be confirmed with a break of that level.

Tomorrow;
Watch for todays high at 1944.70 to hold.
Wave ‘iii’ down must continue to trace out five waves down tomorrow.
A break of 1890 is what I am looking for here.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude is building a small higher low above the wave [b] low at 97.20 today.
I have labelled this as a possible wave (i) and (ii) impulsive wave higher.
This pattern begins a five wave rally in wave [c] of ‘2’.
And that is still the base case scenario over the coming few weeks.
Wave ‘2’ should complete a pretty standard zigzag rally higher as shown.
And once that second wave high completes,
I will then look lower into wave ‘3’ down.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold above 97.20.
Wave (iii) must rally above 108.00 to be confirmed.

A break of 97.20 again will suggest that wave ‘3’ down is already beginning.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

I have shown a possible five wave alternate pattern for wave (c) of [ii] tonight.
This alternate count for wave (c) will be ruled out with a break of 4420 again.
But I think it is worth keeping in mind if the action remains corrective for the next few days.

The price has drifted lower this evening off a small lower high wave ‘2’ as shown.
The decline is not big enough yet to consider wave ‘i’ down underway.
But if we do get a break of 4420 again I think that will be enough to heavily favor the idea that wave (iii) has begun.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘3’ of ‘i’ to continue lower and break 4420 again to confirm wave ‘i’ down.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

The action in silver today is whipsawing around again.
And the price has moved sharply lower as we approach the close this evening.
The action has opened up another possibility for wave (ii) after all that spiking around.
We may have a complex correction wave (ii) in place at todays high.
That pattern means the sharp move lower this evening is wave ‘i’ of (iii).
If this is wave (iii) now underway here,
then the price should continue to the downside and break 23.96 again with ease this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold at 24.93.
Wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ should form another lower high below that wave (ii) high again.
And in this scenario,
wave ‘iii’ of (iii) should begin later this week.