Good evening to you all,

the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

Todays action is to the upside but so far the pattern off the recent low is pretty corrective looking.
It seems the price has trace out a three wave rise into the session high,
and now the price is backing off slightly.
It is possible that we have wave ‘iv’ of (V) in place after todays trade,
and a slight new low tomorrow to break 1.0806 again will complete the pattern.

Tomorrow;
1.0635 must hold.
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (v) to pip below 1.0806 to complete a five wave pattern in wave (v).

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

There is very little to go on today after the price has basically done nothing but hang at the lows all day.
If we do not get a reasonable spike higher tomorrow off this 1.3080 low,
then I will have to concede that wave (c) down might have another leg lower left to complete.

Tomorrow;
Watch for an impulsive move off the lows to signal wave (i) up has begun.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY is only just holding below the wave [d] high this evening.
A break of that high at 115.80 will be he first signal that the triangle in wave ‘4’ is complete at 114.64 as shown.
Then I will look for a higher low in wave (ii) to complete a bullish impulse wave off wave ‘4’.
That should lead to a further rally in wave (iii) to confirm that the larger wave ‘5’ red is in play.
For the moment,
we are approaching a possible bullish signal in USDJPY that should be in place by the end of the week.

Tomorrow;
114.65 must hold.
Watch for wave (i) of [i] to break above the wave [d] high at 115.80.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

There is an interesting alternate count in play at the moment calling for a second wave retracement today.
The pattern off the low today has traced out three waves up
and retraced just above 50% of the decline.
The market has dropped off the high again this evening.
As it stands,
I can’t confirm the alternate count is the correct interpretation here,
but I am watching this pattern closely.

Tomorrow;
As for the main count.
The wave (ii) idea is still the most likely outcome here.
So I suspect we will see a further rally tomorrow to hit the 34200 area and complete three waves up in wave (ii).

Watch for wave ‘b’ to hold at 32332.
Wave ‘c’ of (ii) must turn higher early tomorrow for this count to remain valid.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Well the fear of world war is playing havoc with my commodity charts these days.

Another race to the all time highs has pretty much confirmed that we are now moving into wave (5) up as per the 4hr and daily chart.
The rally into wave [i] has gone much higher than I did expect it to for sure.
But I still think we will see a large corrective decline off the wave [i] high in wave [ii].
and that wave [ii] higher low should form the best opportunity setup up for the longer term rally in wave (5).

When will wave [ii] start,
that is the question.

If we view the consolidation in the last week of February as a fourth wave triangle,
then we already have an extreme overbought top in place for wave [i] now.
We will know before the end of this week if wave [ii] is underway yet.
And I still expect a sizeable selloff into wave [ii].
I suspect the price will fall back below 1900 again in a deep wave [ii] retracement.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

The pattern that is developing this week is starting to form a possible flat correction.
We do have a lower high in place today.
And further declines tomorrow will close out a three wave correction near the 110.00 handle if the correction idea proves correct.

I am not in a position to label this action at the moment,
as the main wave count has not been invalidated yet,
so todays lower high can still be viewed as a second wave lower high also.
More price action is needed I’m afraid before I jump on any bandwagon again!

Once bitten twice shy I suppose.

Tomorrow;
Watch for that lower high to hold.
And if the price falls back below 105.00 again this week.
that will favor the idea of a top in place for wave [C] of ‘b’.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

It is a similar story for the S&P tonight.
The alternate idea on the hourly chart is for a ‘i’ ‘ii’ impulse wave down.
This wave is to begin a larger drop into wave (iii) of [iii].
And that wave down will be the one to confirm the bear market is underway.

There is a clear three wave pattern higher into todays high,
but that does not invalidate the main count yet.
Only a break of the wave (i) low at 4107 again will do that.

If the alternate count is correct here,
then we will see a big acceleration lower over the coming few days to confirm wave (iii) is underway.
So I will be watching that alternate count closely tomorrow.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ to hold and a rally to begin early to confirm wave ‘c’ is underway.
A break of 4107 again will trigger the alternate count.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Ok,
you might think I’m crazy, but hear me out.

Take a look at the daily chart for a minute.
The rally into this weeks highs has now retraced 62% of the previous decline off the all time high.
This three waves up rally may well be the long awaited wave (B) top.
The vertical move off the early February lows can be viewed as wave ‘C’ of (B).
In this scenario, wave (C) down is coming.

the 4hr chart.
Wave ‘C’ has topped out at the 162% extension of the wave ‘A’ rally,
which is a pretty common relationship between waves ‘a’ and ‘c’.

the hourly chart.
We have a triangle wave [iv],
followed by an extended wave [v] green.
Could this be a filled out pattern at todays highs.
Well I can only wait and see on that point.

Tomorrow;
Lets see if the top actually holds and we can begin to build a pattern lower off the highs again.
That count may be wishful thinking,
but I suppose I am hoping against hope that the waring factions will come to an agreement for a general ceasefire in Ukraine.
If that does happen,
you can bet that the relentless buying will turn into selling pretty quickly.