Good evening to you all,

the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

Lower and lower goes the euro, and higher goes the USD!

Another spike lower seems to be happening in wave (v) of [v].
And because of that drop I have re-labelled the internal count also.
Wave [v] now shows an extension in wave (iii),
a small fourth wave expanded flat and now a sharp drop in wave (v) this evening.

Monday;
This pair has now reached a really stretched oversold level in the short term.
There should be a reaction higher to begin wave (E).
1.0635 marks the invalidation level for the larger triangle wave [B] on the daily chart.
So this decline in wave (D) of [B] must hold above that level.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable came very close to invalidating the main count today
with wave ‘v’ of (c) dropping to within 40pips of the low of wave ‘4’ at 1.3163.
We still have a three wave decline in a possible wave [ii] in play this evening,
but the price simply must rally on Monday for this pattern to remain valid.

Monday;
Watch for wave (c) of [ii] to hold above 1.3163.
Wave ‘i’ of (i) should break above 1.3417.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

I think a triangle is still the best interpretation for the sideways action over the last few months.
And that triangle is best viewed as a wave ‘4’ correction within a larger wave (1) up.

There is a few different ways of viewing the internal structure of this triangle,
but all off them point to a low in wave [e] of ‘4’ in place now,
or coming next week.

The 4hr chart shows another two alternate counts for wave [e] of ‘4’.
As long as the price holds above the wave [c] low at 113.50,
then the triangle pattern is safe.

Monday;
back to the main count.
Watch for wave [e] to hold above 114.39.
Wave (i) should push above 115.50 again to signal wave ‘4’ is complete and weave ‘5’ is beginning.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

Todays trade is pretty inconclusive to be honest.
The price has ended the day flat so far and I cannot decide between the two counts on the hourly chart this evening.
Wave (ii) has the potential to drag on for another few sessions if the main count is correct.
But if the market does make further progress lower on Monday and we see an acceleration to break 32230 again,
that action will clearly favor the idea that wave (ii) is done at this weeks high.

Monday;
The wave count for wave (ii) really hinges on the immediate action on Monday,
a spike higher will favor the main count,
and break of 33000 again will favor the alternate count.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold is again threatening last weeks highs even after a very corrective looking retracement this week.
I keep coming back to one fact in my mind.
The pattern for wave [ii] is not done no matter what way I look at it.
Even if the current rally does break above the high at wave [i],
that will only classify wave [ii] as an expanded flat correction rather than a zigzag as I have currently labelled it.
And in that case wave (c) will fall below 1877 to complete anyway.
I do think we are storing up a mini crash in wave (c) now to complete the larger wave [ii] correction.
When that is done,
I will be more than happy to jump on the bull train!

Monday;
I want to see wave (c) come in early on Monday so a solid spike lower to break 1930 again will do just that.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

I have one thought before I go to the wave count.
This pattern in wave ‘5’ of (5) is a strong suggestion that the war in Ukraine will come to an end reasonably soon.

I think there will be a settlement,
Ukraine will lose Crimea and the Donbass regions officially,
they will not join nato,
they will most likely join the e.u,
Russia will pay for reconstruction.
and a few more concessions along with that.

The sanctions will be lifted and the oil price will collapse.

I say this not because I know anything in particular,
only that both parties are hurting quite bad now,
and both will come to a point soon enough when they will grab at a way out of this mess,
all the while trying to save face in the process.

Monday;
Now we have a possible triangle complete in wave [iv] today after a rally back to the highs this evening.
Wave [v] of ‘5’ is coming our way next week.
That should be followed by a sharp reversal in five waves next week.
I will just have to be patient here while this fifth wave blow off top concludes.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The action in the s&p today is inconclusive.
I am allowing for a possible impulse wave down in wave ‘i’ of (iii) to begin on Monday,
but the initial drop off the wave (ii) high is not developing in that way yet.
I suspect that a break of the 4200 level again will favor the bearish count,
but I cannot rule out a complex wave ‘b’ followed by another rally into wave ‘c’ as shown in the alternate wave (ii) count.

Monday;
It is decision time for wave (ii).
A sharp drop on Monday will signal wave (ii) is complete.

I will be keeping an eye on that alternate wave ‘b’ low as a possibility though.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

A triangle in wave (iv) is now followed by a five wave rally into wave (v) at this evenings highs.
Wave ‘v’ of (v) is quite likely close to done now,
and I will be looking for a reversal pattern to begin soon next week.

Monday;
24.20 is the key level to signal a major reversal is in play here.
A break of that level will signal wave [i] of ‘1’ of (C) is underway.

Watch for wave [c] to complete,
and the price to fall back below 24.80 as an initial sign the top is in.