Good evening to you all, and may the Lord bless you all tonight.

Good evening folks,
and welcome back.

Its Christmas week.
So I think I will be wrapping it up on Thursday and take a few days off from the markets.
I will be popping back in next week for a few chart reviews and short comments,
probably a video too I suspect.
but all in all this will be a quiet period coming up next week.

This is the time of year where we Christians celebrate the birth of the ‘promised King of Kings’, Yeshua the Messiah.
Its a little complicated,
but He was born into humanity to be the ‘perfect sacrifice’
to deal with the problem of sin once and for all.
To pay for it all,
and then open up the opportunity for relationship with God again to humanity through Him.

He came once for sin,
He is coming back again soon to judge the world.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dollar-illiquidity-ironic-yet-ignored-spark-next-crisis

I read this little ditty over the weekend,
and I was just grinning from ear to ear and nodding my head.
This is pretty much the same thesis I have regarding the USD and precious metals.
But he comes at it from a different direction in the form of the Eurodollar market.
I would suggest that you give it five minutes,
because I think he has nailed how the Fed the US treasury and all the financial institutions are basically screwed without even knowing it.
The monster they created will eat them for lunch,
and soon.

down to business!

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD came very close to hitting that wave (b) low at 1.1221 today in wave ‘ii’ of (c).
So far it seem safe,
but the price must rally from here and push out above 1.1361 again to signal wave ‘iii’ of (c) is underway.

Tomorrow;
Wave (b) is the key level from here,
1.1221 must hold and then wave ‘iii’ simply must rally tomorrow.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable is acting just as strange and erratic as EURUSD this last week.
And todays trade was no different!
The price came within a whisker of breaking 1.3161 today which would rule out the short term pattern.
But so far we have a spike higher off that low.
This may be the expected rally in wave (c) which I have been waiting for.
But wave ‘iii’ of (c) must continue higher tomorrow to confirm that idea.

Tomorrow;
1.3161 must hold.
Wave (c) of [ii] should break 1.3365 at a minimum.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

The pattern off wave [ii] is still tracing out a lower degree impulse wave labelled wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’.
I suspect wave ‘ii’ is not yet complete its three wave rise off the low of wave ‘i’ yet.
But this pattern is setting up for another drop into wave ‘iii’ of (i) by tomorrow evening.
Wave ‘iii’ down will be confirmed with a break of 113.13.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [ii] to hold at 114.27.
Wave (i) down should fall back below 112.50 again this week.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

Todays decline has given the bearish count a boost back into focus again.
It is critical in general that wave (i) down continue lower this week,
and todays action does fit a third wave decline,
so we are on for a possible five wave pattern off the wave [ii] high by tomorrow evening.
And that should lead to another bearish lower high to develop this week at wave (ii) as shown.

Here is the key point.
If this count is correct,
and we do see wave (ii) compete this week.
That will open the market up to a possible third of a third decline over the following weeks.
Wave (iii) of [iii] to begin the new year?

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ and ‘v’ to complete five waves down by tomorrow evening.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold has only just drifted off the wave [b] high today so there is no evidence that wave [c] has begun yet.
I am open to the possibility that wave (ii) is complete at todays very small lower high,
but we will see on that front.
Only a decline below the wave (b) low at 1752 will confirm wave (iii) of [c] now,

Tomorrow;
watch for wave [c] to continue lower and trace out five waves down also this week.
If this count is correct,
then we are very close to a pretty solid long term opportunity now at the low of wave ‘C’.
This week might bring us to that low pretty quickly.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude oil dropped back into the previous suggested pattern for wave ‘B’ today
Price fell into the price territory of wave [b] of ‘A’ at the low.
And now we have a sharp spike higher off the low at wave ‘B’.
The larger wave (2) pattern now calls for a rally in five waves to complete wave ‘C’ of (2).
Wave ‘C’ must break above 73.14 at the wave ‘A’ high.
Once we have a three wave correction higher in place at wave (2),
then I will be looking for fireworks to begin in wave (3) down in the new year.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [i] and [ii] to complete a higher low above the wave ‘B’ low at 66.10 over the coming days.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P is close to breaking that wave ‘iv’ low at 4494 after todays declines.
If the market manages to do that,
then we have another opportunity for a bearish pattern to develop this week.
This pattern will not stand up to any sharp upside spikes this week,
so I do want to see more downside tomorrow.

Tomorrow;
I have labelled this as wave ‘iii’ of (i) now underway.
So lets see if we manage to break that support at wave ‘iv’ tomorrow to complete wave ‘iii’.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Wave ‘ii’ of (i) fell today and at the moment the price is holding a higher low well above 21.40.
This pattern is interesting for sure,
as it suggests a continued rally over the coming months into wave [iii].
The problem here is simple,
This bullish count will not survive if we see a return lower in wave ‘C’ in gold as shown earlier.
So I am a little cautious to be fully onboard here,
until we see confirmation in the form of wave (i) up.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold above 21.40.
wave ‘iii’ of (i) must continue higher and break 22.68 again.