Good evening to all you lads and lassies,

may the Lord shower His blessings on you all tonight.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD is still hanging near the lows this evening and there is no sight of an impulse more higher eyt.
I note however that the declines have halted at least.
And this is interesting as the decline in wave ‘C’ has now reached the 162% extension of wave ‘A’.
That level comes in at 1.1206.
This level should offer support to wave ‘C’ as this decline is already well extended.

Tomorrow;
I am now looking for a rally in five waves back above the wave (iv) high at 1.1375 to signal a reversal has begun.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Wave [ii] is now taking the form of an expanded flat correction.
After wave (b) of [ii] fell below the wave [i] low at 1.3353 for a brief moment today.
The rally in wave (c) must now rally back above 1.3515 again to complete wave [ii].
And this should complete before Friday at the latest.
I dont expect a sharp decline off these levels before wave (C) completes,
but if that does happen I will be viewing that as wave [iii] underway.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to push higher and hit that target by tomorrow evening.
I suspect this week will be enough to begin wave [iii] down.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

The strength in USDJPY is an interesting case against all the talk of inflation everywhere.
In fact USDJPY has been rising since last April,
so the USD is not deat yet at least when we look at this market.

I do very much expect this rally in USDJPY to be paid back soon enough though,
and I do have my eye on that 107 area to complete the larger pattern.
At that point the world will be screaming about a dying dollar!

I have shown an alternate count on the daily chart that is worth keeping an eye on over the next few weeks.
This involves an extended triangle in wave [B].
This count still involves a three wave decline into that 107.00 area again.

Tomorrow;
Wave (v) of [c] is going to top out this week in my view.
Any impulsive move off the top will signal the decline is about to begin.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

I have to admit that it is getting harder to build the case for a rally into wave (v) as this week goes on.
The market has not created another lower high this evening.
And the action to the upside is looking corrective in general.
I am still allowing for the possibility of wave (iv) closing out and wave (v) taking over.
But if we do not get an impulsive move higher this week to break above 36000 again this week,
then I will have to consider the alternate count more seriously.
If this market continues to step lower and we see a break of the wave (i) high at 34500 again,
then I will have no problem switching to a full bearish outlook again.
For now,
I am just waiting to see if the market will shown its hand!

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ to continue higher and develop into a bullish impulsive pattern with a break of 36000.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold is slowing the decline at least today which does save this bullish count at least.
I freely admit that this bullish pattern is now on the edge of invalidation after the declines over the last few sessions.
Even though I was looking for a decline,
the severity has caught me off guard.
And that is the reason I introduced the alternate on the daily chart last night.
I think that if we see a break of 1758 again at the wave (ii) low,
then I will have to switch to that count.
And then we could easily be in for a turbulent few months ahead.

Do bite my head off for contemplating the worst here!
I will soften the blow by saying also that the alternate count is still incredibly bullish long term.
That is after the correction has completed near the 1500 level!

Tomorrow;
Ok,
it is critical that wave ‘ii’ holds above 1758 now.
This decline has gone far enough for a correction at this degree.
I wnat to see wave ‘iii’ begin this week and rally strongly back above 1850 by next week in order to rule out the alternate count.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

The action in crude has now swung back in favor of the bullish count again today.
The price spiked higher off the lows today,
and although the internal pattern in wave (i) is not perfect,
this rally was enough to signal that wave [i] of ‘5’ is now back on in play again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) to break above 79.26 again to signal that a low is in for wave ‘4’.
A higher low in wave (ii) above 74.64 should also complete this week.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

Well if this S&P is now building a top here, the pattern that has emerged this week is definitely in line with that idea.
It is obviously too early to say anything definite,
but if we see more follow through to the downside for the rest of the week,
then we may be onto something here.

Tomorrow;
the pattern today looks like a small correction in a second wave.
If so,
the price should continue lower tomorrow to begin wave ‘iii’.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

I have switched to an alternate count today for silver.
The declines this week sinply pushed the other count too far.
I am now working on a larger wave [ii] as an expended flat correction.
And wave (c) of [ii] should trace out a five wave decline to a new low to break 23.00 again.
this will complete the correction and open the door for wave [iii] to begin later this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to complete five waves down tomorrow.