Good evening to one and all,

God’s Blessings to you all tonight.

If you do nothing else this week I recommend you read the latest comment from John Hussman.

When Bubble Meets Trouble

And here is two charts that should keep all governments awake at night! – but it wont!

I am going to ask a simple question to kick off tonight’s update,
if inflation is so entrenched
and out of control
and getting worse every day,
and with a risk of hyperinflation growing also,
then why is the USD rallying today on the back of a big cpi number??
surely the USD should be falling, no??

Maybe the consensus is not exactly as on point as they would like to think.
just a question,
thats all!

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

Well EURUSD has fallen today and now the five wave pattern in wave (v) has hit the lower trend line and broken the minimum target at 1.1512.
The question now is how far can wave (v) go before we call this decline done.
There are two lower trend channel lines which surround the larger wave [v],
and the larger wave ‘C’ in blue.
Wave (v) could fall into the first trend channel at 1.1400 and I suspect there will be support in that area.
So if the decline continues in wave (v) tomorrow,
that 1.14 level is where I will look to for a low to form.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (v) to complete this ending diagonal pattern now and then reverse higher early tomorrow to begin wave ‘A’ of (E).

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable dropped impulsively again today and broke below the previous low at 1.3423.
This action suggests wave [i] is still underway,
and wave (iii) of [i] is labelled as an extension shown in pink labels.
This pattern for wave [i] suggests we will see a low very soon,
and I do expect a correction higher to begin after that.
Right now It is a matter of waiting to see if wave (v) of [i] will complete before the end of this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [i] to fill the trend channel and hit a low in the area of 1.3340.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

Wave (iv) held at the lower trend line of that channel today and then we saw a nice spike higher to begin wave (v).
This count is now pretty safe as we did not see a break of the wave (i) high at 112.07.
So I expect wave (v) to continue higher tomorrow and trace out a five wave pattern to complete wave [c].
the minimum target remains at 114.68.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold above 112.72 and then wave ‘iii’ should push into that 114.68 area again by the end of the week.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The Dow is on the way to completing a three wave correction in wave (iv) this week.
The market is now falling in wave ‘c’ of (iv).
And in this scenario the we could easily see wave ‘c’ fall into the price area of the previous fourth wave at 35500 or so.

This pattern in wave [v] is chugging along now
and I suspect we will see wave (v) of [v] drag into next week at a minimum.
So at this point I done expect any big shock here until at least we see this trend channel close out and a clear five wave pattern in place.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (iv) to fall into the range of the previous wave ‘iv’.
between 35900 and 35500.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Todays spike higher has pretty much ruled out the major alternate count in gold now.
There is always a risk to every bullish count,
but I am less worried now that the big slide into 1500 again in wave ‘C’ of (4) is on the cards!
So I will concentrate on the main count for the rest of this week anyway!

The spike higher today can be viewed as the finish pop to a five wave pattern in wave ‘i’ of (iii),
this idea has merit given the size of the retracement off the session high.
If wave ‘ii’ is now underway,
then we should see a drop back into the 1813 area again in three waves.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to trace out a three wave decline and fall back into that previous high at 1813 by the end of the week,
This pattern will setup for a rally again next week in wave ‘iii’ of (iii).

There is a small chance that wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is already underway today,
but if we see a break of 1832 that will rule out that more bullish count.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude topped out a five wave pattern in wave [i] of ‘5’ today,
and immediately the price dropped like a stone into wave [ii].
The pattern calls for wave [ii] to form a higher low above 77.70,
It looks like that will happen tomorrow.
And then a rally in wave [iii] of ‘5’ should break the recent high at 85.00 again next week.

Tomorrow;
Wave [ii] must hold above the wave ‘4’ low at 77.70,
we should see a reversal higher again into wave [iii] begin early next week.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

At this moment the pattern in wave ‘v’ is still holding,
although it is a close call now after the continued declines this evening.
The pattern in wave ‘v’ is a bit lopsided now with a relatively large wave ‘4’
and a smaller wave ‘2’.
But this pattern is still valid if the high of wave ‘1’ holds at 4626.

Tomorrow;
Even though wave ‘v’ is not an ideal wave pattern right now,
I am willing to allow for a rally in wave ‘5’ of ‘v’ to complete this scenario.

If this count is invalidated tomorrow by further declines,
then I will rethink the possibility of a top in place again.
We will see soon enough!

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

I mentioned before how I am not a big fan of ‘news event’ rallies or declines.
Especially if they are really heavy in the confirmation bias as todays cpi numbers are!
So I am wary of a big break out here as some are calling for,
but rather I am looking at todays spike as a completing of the five wave rally in wave (i).
And now I will look for a three wave decline to form a bullish higher low in wave (ii) over the coming days.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to fall in three waves into the previous wave ‘iv’ lows at 23.90 again.