Good evening folks, may the Lord Bless you all tonight.

My little 2yr old, Naoise, is now spending his second night in hospital tonight as he is trying to overcome a breathing difficulty, and lung infection.

I did not expect a hospital visit to be honest, but he seems to be improving today so thanks be to God for that.

I want to thank you for your patience and your prayers.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD pushed back up above this weeks high today and that creates a possible extension within wave ‘iii’ of (c).
If the price turns down now and falls in three waves,
that will suggest wave [a] has topped and wave [b] is underway.

I am also looking at the idea that wave ‘A’ of (E) is already underway.
If so,
then we should begin a decline in three waves in wave ‘B’.
Either way,
I suspect a three wave corrective decline will begin this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a drop below 1.1793 to begin wave [b].

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable has pushed slightly higher today off the wave ‘ii’ low.
This action does suggest wave ‘iii’ is now underway,
but we do not have confirmation of that yet until we see an acceleration higher above 1.38 again.

Tomorrow;
The low of wave ‘ii’ at 1.3730 should hold.
Watch for a rise into wave ‘iii’ of (iii) over the coming days.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY fell back below the wave ‘i’ high today and the decline was pretty sharp.
I want to see that low of wave ‘ii’ hold at 109.58.
And if we rally again back above 110.41 then we can call wave ‘iii’ underway with some confidence.

Tomorrow;
Wve ‘ii’ must hold.
So 109.58 is key in this pattern.

If this wave count is correct,
then we should expect a hard rally over the coming few sessions in wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [iii].
We are pretty close to that acceleration point now,
And if this fails,
I will have to rethink the entire pattern off the wave ‘2’ low at 108.71.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

It looks like wave ‘2’ of ‘c’ has actually developed into a larger three wave pattern this week.
The market is still holding above the wave ‘b’ low at 35165,
and wave ‘2’ has traced out a flat correction into todays session lows.

This count does suggest a rally in wave ‘3’ of ‘c’ is immanent,
but that will require wave ‘b’ to hold.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to be confirmed with a rally above 35512.
Wave ‘c’ should trace out a five wave pattern higher towards 35800.

The three wave pattern in wave (v) will remain valid until we see a break of 34560 at the wave (iv) low.
If that happens,
it will be a clear signal that the market has topped and rolling over again.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

The action today does not really favor either of the wave counts suggested on the short term chart.
More importantly it neither confirms or denies the operating count.
And as long as the market remains vague like this,
I will hold with the main count.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) of [ii] to continue lower in a five wave pattern.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

The decline and spike rally pattern that is in play today has opened up another possibility for wave [b].
Wave [a] has completed three wave down with the drop into the 67 handle today.
and the rally off the lows is labelled as the beginning of wave [b] this evening.
Wave [b] should trace out three waves up to a lower high.
And then wave [c] down should carry the price down again to complete a larger 3,3,5 flat correction pattern.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [b] of ‘2’ to trace out a three wave pattern to a lower high.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The action today is not must to go on really!
The market is essentially flat below the highs.
I cant say that the turn is underway until we get a large five wave down move to break initial support.
So far that initial support lies at 4352 at wave ‘iv’.
So that will require a pretty large impulsive move lower to reach from here.
And that is going to need time to develop.

At this point it looks like I am in limbo until we get at least a small degree impulse pattern off the high.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a more substantial decline pattern to begin.

I will just have to be patient until that happens.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

It is a similar situation in silver here today.
The price has not moved into that final fifth wave leg down yet.
So I am waiting for some confirming price action here too.
An impulsive lower high should form in wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ before the end of this week to signal wave (v) is underway.

At least there is a viable alternate count here to work with also.

Wave (ii) should decline into about 23.33 again in a three wave correction.
And if that happens,
then I will switch to that alternate count and look for a larger rally phase to begin in wave (iii) of [iii].

Tomorrow;
A five wave decline must begin soon to kick off wave (v).
If that does not happen before the end of this week,
then I will be looking at the alternate count more seriously.