Good evening to one and all, and may Lord of hosts Bless you tonight.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

The rally across risk assets today is reflects in a bid in EURUSD also.
The pattern off the overnight lows is now particularly impulsive nor inspiring either!
I suspect this move higher is part of a larger correction within wave (iv).
It is impossible to know yet what form that rally will take,
but we should be able to confirm at least that this is a correction higher rather than another rally phase at least.

Tomorrow;
Wave (iv) must hold below 1.2100 at the wave (i) low.
this is the upper limit of this correction.
Although I would like to see wave (iv) complete below the 1.1985 level at the wave [b] low again.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable has rallied in a more vigorous manner off the lows put in last Friday.
WAve (iii) lies at 1.3782 now,
so I expect wave (iv) to complete above this level over the next few sessions
and then we should see another decline below that level again into wave (v) of [i].
I would like to see wave [i] break the previous left shoulder support at 1.36 before completing the first leg down.
This can be best viewed on the 4hr chart.

Tomorrow;
If wave (iv) is now in play here,
then we should see a three wave correction to complete below 1.4080 at the wave (i) low.

Wave (iv) should trace out a corrective three waves up at least.
wave ‘b’ of (iv) should fall again towards the 1.3780 level starting tomorrow.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

So far the bullish picture in USDJPY is still intact even with last weeks declines.
The price is still holding above that rising trend line on the 4hr chart,
and so long as we have a series of higher lows building along that trend line,
the I will stick with the idea that wave ‘5’ is now underway.

Tomorrow;
The price has rallied off the trend line again today,
so if wave ‘ii’ has completed at the lows.
Then wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is expected to push higher for the rest of the week again.

Wave ‘iii’ has the potential to push above 112.00 with ease.
watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold at 109.71.
A break of 110.80 again will signal wave ‘iii’ is in force.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The dow has rallied powerfully today and the pattern off the low does not look corrective at all.
I am working on the idea that this rally is part of wave (ii) grey underway now.
If this is the case,
then wave (ii) will trace out a three wave correction to another bearish lower high this week.
And then next week I will be expect the decline to resume into wave (iii) of [iii].
This wave has some serious potential to bring a mini crash with it as the price accelerates lower.

Back to the wave at hand.
Todays rally is labelled wave ‘a’ of (ii).
With wave ‘b’ and ‘c’ left to complete over the coming days.
The market has already retraced close to 50% of last weeks declines.
This is retracement is big enough to suggest wave (ii) is already done here,
but I will allow for a larger corrective pattern to play out over the coming days.

Tomorrow;
The price should fall again into wave ‘b’ of (ii) beginning tomorrow.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold has risen off last weeks lows today also,
it really is a case of all boats rising with the tide today!

The sudden declines last week were surely enough to suggest we were due some sort of bounce today,
and I am viewing this action as part of a correction higher in wave (iv) of [iii].

This correction should give way to wave (v) of [iii] later this week.
Wave (v) could extend lower again give the weak correction in wave (iv) so far.
Wave [iii] should complete this week though,
and then wave [iv] of the larger wave ‘C’ should correct higher again.

This is the idealized path of the pattern,
we will see how reality fares though!

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iv) of [iii] to close out tomorrow.
We should see the first turn lower into wave (v) of [iii] by Wednesday.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude has pushed to a new cycle high today and this has forced another interpretation of th short term pattern.
Wave (iii) and (iv) completed at last weeks high and low,
and now wave (v) of [c] is underway and pushing back into the rising trend line which surrounds this expanding diagonal.

Of course the headlines are now all shouting for $100 oil again,
and as it did in previous years,
I think this clarion call is a harbinger of the next decline again
rather than the next big leap in crude.
It is not a sure thing,
but it is a recognizable pattern in behavior that usually ends with collapse again!

Tomorrow;
for the coming few days I am just going to monitor the development of wave ‘5’ to see of we can spot another candidate for a turn again.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

As with the dow we have see a sizeable rally in the s&p today.
The form of the action today is far from corrective.
In fact I could be persuaded that this is in fact the beginning of a much bigger rally.
but for the moment last weeks decline is dominating the short term pattern.
And this decline is undeniably best described as a five wave pattern lower.
So with that in mind I am going to continue working on a possible topping pattern here again.

Todays rally has already retraced above 62% of the wave ‘i’ decline.
This alone should yield at least a corrective decline tomorrow,
but I am going to look for a more substantial decline into wave ‘iii’ down this week.
So tomorrow watch for weakness off 4230 at that small shoulder within wave ‘i’ down.
A break of 4137 again later in the week will signal wave ‘iii’ down is underway.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver has hit a new low today to break last Thursdays low.
I am viewing this low as wave (v) of [iii] now,
and I suspect wave [iv] should now begin and continue for the newt few sessions at least.
The correction in wave [ii] green above was a long and complicated affair,
so it is not likely that wave [iv] will be as large as that.
The guideline of alteration between corrective waves suggests the same.
So it looks like we will be dealing with a three wave correction to complete below 27.00 again before the end of the week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (a) of [iv] to rise in three waves to 26.50 again.