Good evening folks, the Lords Blessings to you all tonight.

Please forgive me I have managed to get way behind in my emails the last few days. I know some of you are waiting patiently for a reply and I will make it my business to get back to you tomorrow!

My sincere apologies.

Ok here we go.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

Todays spike towards the upper trend line has traced out five waves up in wave [c] green.
The trend channel is filled,
and the 50% retracement level has been met.
As it stands,
this three wave correction higher in wave ‘B’ is now complete and we should see a decline into wave ‘C’ begin soon.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [i] of ‘C’ to fall back below 1.1870 to confirm that wave ‘C’ has begun.
Wave [i] should begin tomorrow and break of 1.1941 will signal wave [i] is in force.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Todays sharp rally in cable has invalidated the previous short term count.
The action now fits the alternate count which is best viewed on the 4hr chart.

Waves [a] and [b] should be complete soon,
and wave [c] is still expected to fall back into the 1.3300 area to complete the larger wave ‘D’.

Todays rally is now viewed as wave (c) of [b] and the action has retraced into the previous wave (b) high.
The price has broken above the 50% retracement of wave [a] down also,
so we are ready for a decline to begin in this pattern in wave [c] of ‘D’.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to top out followed by a spike lower to begin wave (i) of [c].
A break below 1.3900 again should be enough to signal wave (i) of [c] is underway.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

Well USDJPY has triggered the alternate count also today.
The sharp move lower early today ruled out the larger wave [b] pattern that I was working with.
And now we have a complete five wave decline in wave [c] in place.

This correction in wave ‘4’ has now brought the price back down below the previous wave [iv] target at 108.40.
Again the trend channel has been filled in a three wave pattern in wave ‘4’.
and now we need to see a reversal pattern build off these lows to begin wave ‘5’ up.
This will involve a rally back above 109.00 in five waves,
and then a higher low in a second wave correction as shown.

Tomorrow;
Watch for this correction in wave ‘4’ to complete with a final low soon.
Then a rally back to 109.00 in wave (i) of [i].

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The Dow is taking a break from the all time highs today with a three wave decline off the high so far.
This decline can still develop into a larger five wave pattern lower,
but for the moment all I can do is allow this pattern to develop.
And let the market do the talking to let us know where it is going in the short term.

The larger wave ‘5’ blue ending diagonal is still the main pattern that I am working with to determine where we stand overall.
this pattern has not got much room above to develop higher now.
The internal structure of the rally in wave ‘5’ is quite far removed from a five wave pattern.
made up of a series of three wave moves and a whole lot of overlap added into the mix!

That alone is enough to cause me to look for a top sooner rather than later.
But when I couple that with excessive leverage,
excessive optimism and record valuation extremes.
I come to the conclusion that these current highs are utterly unsustainable and the pattern suggests as much.

Tomorrow;
In the short term there is little to do except wait for the appearance of a five wave decline to signal the possibility of a turn happening.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold has dropped off that upper trend channel line today and the move is quite impulsive looking.
If todays decline is wave ‘i’ down as I have shown.
then we should see a larger decline in wave [v] begin this week.
The initial wave (i) of [v] should drop into the 1722 area first and then create a lower high in wave (ii) by the end of this week.
A break of that wave ‘b’ low at 1722 will signal that wave [v] has begun.
And the longer term target for wave [v] of ‘C’ lies in the area of 1650.

Tomorrow;
If wave [iv] is done at 1789,
then we should not see a break of that high again for the next few weeks as wave [v] completes.
So,
lets see if that level holds tomorrow and if we get a five wave decline into wave (i) this week.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

We do have a very small lower high in place this evening off Fridays high.
I cant call the top for wave [ii] in place until we see a clear five wave decline off that high.
So that is the aim this week for the pattern.
The initial support for this pattern lies at the wave (b) triangle low of 58.75.
Only a break of this level will confirm that wave [iii] down is underway.
But id we do see a more significant lower high develop by midweek,
then we can begin to favor the idea that wave [iii] is underway.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [ii] to close out with a five wave decline back into the 60 handle again.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

There is a small three wave decline in place off the top so far.
This does not tell me anything in particular as it can easily develop further to the downside and trace out five waves down.

In general I want to see a much sharper decline to come in this week
to signal a possible top in the larger pattern.
With the main support for this market at the left shoulder high of wave (a) at 3988.
I want to see that level broken with the first drop,
that level should be taken out easily in wave [i] down.
We will see soon enough!

Tomorrow;
The MACD readings across 4 time frames are showing a severe divergence developing again.
This is to be expected at a top of this magnitude,
but it is always frustrating to wait for the initial decline to take place to call an end to the madness.

Lets see if that comes our way this week.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

I am not overly confident in the main short term count his evening.
The price has dropped off the top in a clear three wave pattern so far.
So if this decline proves corrective in the short term.
then we should see a pop above up to 26.60 and a trigger of the alternate count as shown circled in red.
Both counts favor another drop to a new low for the correction in wave [2].
And the minimum target for wave ‘C’ lies at 21.60 at the wave ‘A’ low formed last September.

Tomorrow;
At the moment we have a three wave rally into a slight lower high in place.
So the main pattern still stands for now.
Watch for a decline in wave (iii) to begin tomorrow.
A break of 24.66 will signal wave (iii) is underway.