Good evening folks, And the LORD’s Shalom to you all tonight.

Just another day in the ‘not a bubble’ market.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD broke below the previous ‘b’ wave low at 1.1881 today.
This is the initial signal that the larger wave (iii) is now underway.
Wave ‘ii’ should create a corrective lower high below 1.1988 by Monday evening.
And that will set the stage for wave ‘iii’ down to begin by the middle of next week.

At the moment the main alternate count calls for a longer wave (ii) as shown by the red trend channel.

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete within the trend channel at about 1.1940.
A break of 1.1870 again will confirm wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is underway.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable has only created a three wave decline off the high at wave ‘ii’ pink so far.
The price did move lower with a more impulsive move today,
so while wave ‘iii’ has not been confirmed yet,
the action is certainly pointing that way now.

Monday;
Wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is now on the cards for next week.
The next break of 1.3800 will confirm wave ‘iii’ of (iii) has begun.
Ideally, wave ‘iii’ should carry the price down into the lower trend channel line again below 1.3500.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

Todays trade has followed the same path as we have seen all week.
Sideways, corrective and narrowing.
The main count still stands as a triangle in wave [iv].
While todays low has extended the decline in wave (c) of the triangle.
I suspect we will see a further contraction in wave (d) and (e) over the coming days.

This pattern should complete by Monday evening.
and then wave [iv] should give way to a rally in wave [v] of ‘3’ for the remainder of next week.

Monday;
The main target for wave ‘3’ stands at 110.80,
where wave ‘3’ reaches 162% of wave ‘1’.

The price must hold above 108.60 as wave (d) and (e) complete.

A break above 109.35 will signal wave [v] has begun.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The market fell today again and has recovered off the lows this evening.
The pattern off the high has only traced out three waves down into todays lows.
At the moment this action only suggests a correction off the high.
So I will be waiting eagerly for Mondays trade to see if we can extend the losses and trace out a larger five wave pattern lower.

As far as I am concerned,
the larger pattern at wave ‘5’ blue is complete.
All that is left now if for a confirmation in the form of an impulsive move lower to break initial support at 31740,
this is the previous fourth wave according to this count.

Monday;
If the price challenges the 33000 level again that will rule out the immediately bearish count.
But,
and early decline on Monday will complete five waves down in wave (i).
Lets see if that is what we get here.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

In general I am looking for another run down in gold over the next week.
This decline will complete a five wave pattern in wave ‘C’,
and in turn that will complete a very large correction in wave (4).
I am expecting wave (4) to hit a low in the region of 1600 before turning higher again.

While that may well happen next week,
I am getting very bullish on the prospects for that wave (5) rally.
That rally has the potential to push up towards the 3000 area when complete.
And this should take us well into the 3rd quarter of this year.

So I am short term bearish,
but the long term bullish scenario is getting very close now.

Monday;
We have a small impulsive wave lower now complete off the high at wave [iv] green.
The current lower high should give way to an further decline on Monday in wave (iii) of [v].
1755 must hold now.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

the decline in crude yesterday has been retraced by about 50% today.
the action off the low is a three wave pattern so far.
I have labelled this rally as wave ‘iv’ of (iii).
But we could easily call this wave (iv) of [i] also.

In both cases we should see a reversal lower again on Monday once this fourth wave correction completes.
And in both cases this correction higher must hold below 63.10 at the wave (i) low.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) to complete with a push below 58.00 again.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P has actually traced out a pretty clear five wave decline off the high into todays lows.
This completes wave ‘i’ of (i) down as shown.
Wave ‘ii’ is most likely still underway as I cannot make out a three wave correction to a lower high yet.
So there is room for a lower high to complete on Monday evening in wave ‘ii’.
And the door will then be open for wave ‘iii’ to drop below initial support at 3835.

Monday;
If the bearish pattern is correct,
then next week will mark a major turning point for this market.
Wave (i) down should dominate the trade next week,
Wave (i) down should threaten the previous 3722 low at wave (b).

watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete a lower high and then turn lower into wave ‘iii’ by Monday evening.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Unlike gold,
I do not think that silver is near that final low at all yet.
The market has traced out a series of corrective lower highs into this weeks high,
and if anything,
this should lead to a substantial decline over the next week in a third wave scenario.
Over the next month,
silver should work out this final decline into wave (C) of [2],
With the initial target in the area of 20.00 again.

Once that drop is done,
I will then be looking up for the long term.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave (iii) of [iii] of ‘3’ of (C) to come in next week.
A drop below 25.36 again will signal wave (iii) is in force.