Good evening folks, And God Bless you all tonight.

A few stories that I think are well worth reading tonight regarding the current madness in bitcoin.

Firstly a short essay on what is actually happening in this latest rally.

https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/publications/articles/820-bitcoin-magic-internet-money.html

Secondly a story revealing the size of the holdings of the bitcoin whales, this might explain why the price gave of 25% so easily recently. One big holder obviously tried to cash out a little and ended up crashing the market!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-18/bitcoin-whales-ownership-concentration-is-rising-during-rally

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

We have another interesting pattern developing in EURUSD circled in red tonight.
The low of the session might be wave [i] down now complete.
In this case wave [ii] is now underway off the low.

Three waves up is expected in both wave counts now, in either wave [ii] or wave (iv).
So,
as far as both scenarios go,
we may be looking at a nice downswing developing next week into a third wave.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iv) to track higher in three waves.
Wave ‘a’ is pushing higher this evening,
and wave (iv) should break above the previous wave ‘iv’ high at 1.2222.

Wave (iv) must not break the wave (i) low at 1.2264.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable broke that wave ‘iii’ high at 1.3704 by a whisper this evening.
This is the minimum target for wave ‘v’, but I do not think wave ‘v’ is over yet.

The run higher in wave ‘v’ is more like a five wave pattern at the moment.
And I would like to see another pop up to 1.3770 at the upper trend line,
to trace out a better three wave form off the wave ‘iv’ low.
That will keep the ending diagonal idea in play at this late stage.

There is room even now for a drop into the lower trend line followed by another rally to compelte a larger three wave form also.
I will keep a close eye on that one too.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ to pop up to that upper trend line to open up the possibility for a reversal to develop into a first wave down.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY is close to completing three waves down off the recent high today.
A sharp drop in wave (c) of [ii] has traced out a reasonable zigzag pattern now.
I would expect to see a break of the wave (a) low at 103.51 to complete the correction.
That level marks the 50% retracement level also.
The 62% retracement level comes in at 103.27,
so I am watching that area for a reversal to occur.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [ii] to complete below 103.51.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

It is interesting how the Dow has settled at 31144 this evening.
This level is where waves [i] and [v] of ‘5’ reach equality.
And this is also a common target level within a five wave structure.

I do think that wave ‘c’ should break to a new high to complete the pattern in wave [v] properly.
But a failed fifth wave is always a possibility!

The alternate count for wave (iv) will allow for a drop back into 30700 in wave ‘c’ of (iv).
And then wave (v) will work off that level again.

Tomorrow;
A new high from this point will favor the main wave count.
Wave ‘c’ of (v) will end with a break of the wave (iii) high.
Then I can begin to look lower again.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

While it is still possible that we are now moving into the first phase of the next leg up in gold,
the action at the beginning of wave (i) is not encouraging right now.

Todays trade is still stuck in a vortex at about 1850.
And as the days go on,
the action gets more choppy and corrective looking.

In terms of the alternate count,
this action is perfectly explained by a developing correction in wave (iv) of [i].
And I have shown a possible triangle underway within the red trend lines.

If this price contraction continues tomorrow,
then the action will definitely favor the bearish alternate count.
And what could follow from this is a large downdraft into wave [iii] before the end of this month.
So watch out here,
we are in dangerous territory.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

I have been viewing this wave ‘C’ as an ending diagonal pattern for weeks now,
but there is also a possibility that the the rally in wave ‘C’ is a standard five wave impulse pattern.
That can be see on the 4hr chart.

This does not change the overall outcome here,
but it can go a long way to explaining the extension higher into wave [v].
This is more common in a typical five wave impulse pattern.

There is no doubt however where we are going in the longer term,
that is down in wave (5) or an alternate wave (C).
Both of those waves will crush the recent rally.

Tomorrow;
The rally in wave [v] is faltering this week at the upper trend line.
The price has not reversed in a meaningful way just yet,
It looks like we will have to wait until next week at this point.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P has stalled after a three wave rise into this weeks highs.
We are still holding a small owner high also at this peak.
So I think this top is wave ‘b’ of (iv) right here.
And next week should see a decline in wave ‘c’ of (iv).

This count will align nicely with a rally into the inauguration on the 19th.
So wave (v) will take us higher in three waves up towards 3900 when complete.

Even so,
this pattern in wave [v] of ‘5’ is very well filled out with very little room left to maneuver higher from here.
So the rally in wave (v) will be a short affair.
And then the trap door will be open again below this market to allow the bear market another chance to get underway.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (iv) to drop back into 3750 to complete three waves down.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver is running higher this evening to complete a three wave pattern off last weeks lows.
The action this week is more likely in wave ‘2’ red as shown.
Waves [a] and [b] both traced out three waves,
and now the price is moving in a five wave pattern in wave [c].
So wave ‘2’ now qualifies as a flat correction.
The target for wave [c] of ‘2’ is between 26.12 and 26.53, the 50% to 62% retracement levels.

Tomorrow;
Wave [c] has broken above the wave [a] high this evening,
but I expect the pattern will complete above 26.00 as shown.

Watch for wav e[c] to turn higher again tomorrow and complete three waves up in wave ‘2’.
Wave ‘3’ down should begin next week.