Good evening all you fine people.

God Bless you all tonight.

A few stories that I think are worth looking at here to illustrate the stretched extreme we are sitting at!

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EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

I find it very worrying when the bulk of the market is trading one way, that is up.
It is now getting very scary when you weight the possibilities here.
And EURUSD will be a severe victim in the next turn.

EURUSD seems to be drawn to that upper trend line as wave (v) extended today.
The price is tracing out a three wave structure in wave (v),
with a running flat wave ‘b’ complicating the structure even further.

Tomorrow;
the upper trend line is drawing close.
Lets see if that line can offer resistance to stop the wave (v) rally.

1.2056 is the key level to indicate a turn now.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

I have taken a hammer to the wave count in cable tonight.
The count in wave ‘C’ red is now viewed as a five wave structure as seen on the 4hr chart.
And the rally into this weeks high is marking the end of wave (v) of [v].
The pattern in wave (v) grey has traced out a five wave structure also.
So as far as pattern goes,
this one is pretty full now.

Tomorrow;
1.3155 is the level to watch to indicate a major turn is in play,
but I suspect we will see a smaller lower high before that with a break of 1.34 to signal the rally is over.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

No silver lining yet in USDJPY I’m afraid.
But we have now officially broken below the the 103.17 low at wave [iii].
The price has filled another trend channel in three waves in wave [v] to fulfill the requirements of an ending diagonal.

The 4hr chart shows the price has reached the lower line of the diagonal,
and we have a higher low in Momentum off the wave [iii] low signaling a divergence is in place now.

Tomorrow;
I expect we will see a sharp reversal develop here soon to put an end to the misery of this diagonal pattern.
104.56 marks the signal level for a reversal off these lows.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

Wave ‘c’ of (v) has taken charge again today,
ruling out the larger three wave flat pattern that was in play in wave ‘b’ yesterday.
Wave ‘c’ is moving higher with a possible wedge pattern now,
and we are approaching that upper trend line marking the target area for wave (v).

The march higher in wave (v) has been anything but impulsive,
the price has basically gone sideways for over a month now!
The only viable pattern for wave [v] green is an ending diagonal.
and the price action has filled out that pattern now.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (v) to hit the upper line at 30400 and then reverse lower into wave (i).

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

You may have noticed that while I am a bull on gold in the long term,
I am not quite convinced by the short term action here.

I have adopted the wave (i) label for this weeks rally this evening.
But I am also looking pretty favorably at the main alternate count.

The main complaint I have with the recent wave [ii] decline is that wave (c) of [ii] looks way too short.

Both counts expect a drop back into the 1850 level in the short term in at least wave (ii).
With the alternate count suggesting a drop back below 1819 to close out wave [ii] as an expanded flat.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a corrective decline in wave (ii) to begin.
A three wave drop into 1844 will create a bullish opportunity.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude has reached the upper trend line today to close out wave ‘v’ of (v).
On top of that there is momentum divergence visible on all three timeframes now,
so I think it is high time we see a drop in five waves develop here to indicate a reversal is underway.
we have a completed pattern,
momentum divergence,
and an extreme bullish sentiment environment now.
There are all pointing to at least a medium term top in place here.

Tomorrow;
A drop below 46.00 again will indicate the top is in place for wave (v).

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P has hit the initial target for wave [v] at 3722 this evening.
This is the level where wave [i] and [v] reach equality.
The pattern of wave [v] is now complete as an ending diagonal.
And wave (v) of [v] has traced out the required there wave structure.

The 4hr chart shows a clear five wave pattern in place now,
and a major bearish divergence in momentum off the early November highs.
The table is set here,
we just need to get on with the party!

Tomorrow;
Wave ‘c’ has every chance of pushing up to the upper trend line to complete.
but the minimum requirements are already in place.

I dont know if the market will reverse before Christmas now,
but I would not be surprised by that outcome.

Lets see if we can get over wave ‘c’ this week.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

You may be surprised to see that I am now bearish on silver in the short term.
The sharp rally this week has opened up a new possibility for the pattern in wave [2].
On the 4hr chart you will see what I mean.

I was always suspicious of that November low because it did not make a new low below 21.65 to complete three waves down.

After this weeks rally though,
you can see that we have a three wave pattern complete up off that November low.
The price has filled a trend channel.
And now we have a possible complex flat pattern in place for wave (B) in blue.

This pattern suggests wave (B) will complete soon,
and wave (C) down will get underway and carry the price back below 20.00.

Tomorrow;
It is early days on this new wave count,
but I But if we see a break of 23.50 again,
that will really favor the new count.

Watch for wave ‘C’ to complete soon off that upper trend channel line.
Wave ‘1’ down will fall in five waves off the high at wave (B).