Good evening guy’s and gal’s!

may the Lord Bless you all tonight.

I’m into the COT charts this week and I want to share the with you another few.

Here is the general position in the DXY now.

Extreme short positioning at a long term higher low in price. mmmmmm.

And now on the other side, cable short positioning hitting multi year lows at another lower high in price!

On with the show.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

The EURO has been chased this week as part of the final run higher in wave [v] of ‘C’.
The internal pattern in wave [v] is not satisfactory as either an impulse wave,
or an ending diagonal.
Although the structure does lend itself to a series of three waves as you would expect in an ending diagonal.
I am holding out for an impulsive drop off the highs soon to call this rally complete.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) to top out and then drop into wave [i] of ‘A’ of (D).

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

No sign yet of a turn into wave (i) down after a full retracement of the decline today.
The price action is still working correctively higher in a wedge formation.
This pattern does fit with an ending diagonal overall.
And we are really scraping the bottom of the barrel in terms of momentum now so I am not changing my outlook for a very large decline dead ahead.

The labelling has changed this evening though.
This daily chart now shows this high as wave ‘C’.
And this final move higher is completing wave (v) of [c] of ‘C’.

In terms of sentiment,
the futures market is heavily skewed long anything but the USD at the moment.
Money managers now hold the third highest neutral / long position of the last 10 years.
Of course they have managed to be long cable at the tops and short at the bottoms like clockwork for a decade now,
I don’t expect this to change either!

Tomorrow;
I am watching for a serious impulsive move lower to begin any day to close out this rally in wave ‘C’.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

I cant get over how horribly beaten dow the USD is in every cross rate at the moment.
It is surprising that USDJPY is threatening to fall into the lows again and invalidate the impulsive move higher we saw in November.
But here we are.
The move lower today has opened up another possibility for wave [ii] green.
That is a larger three wave move down off the high as shown.
this may have completed at todays lows.

The rising trend line was broken today,
but the price is rallying back to that level again this evening.
So the impulsive rally is still in play even after a large and protracted selloff in wave [ii] green.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) of [iii] to push higher overnight.
The 104.75 level is still crucial in the short term.
If we can break that level in wave (i),
then we are on for a larger rally in wave (iii) of [iii] towards the end of this month.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The Dow is still on for another push into the 30800 area to complete wave (iii) in the coming days.
The market didn’t manage the acceleration today,
but the rising trend line is still holding under the recent higher lows.
It is possible that wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is going to trace out a smaller impulsive pattern before that burst higher into wave (iii) begins.

Tomorrow;
The kep level for wave (iii) lies at wave (ii) at 29464.
Watch for that level to hold and a further rally in wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to push out to a new all time high soon.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

I am seriously contemplating the alternate count for gold this evening.
The price has not broken the 1849 resistance / invalidation level yet,
but its so close that I cant ignore the bullish potential.

That alternate count views the rally off 1764 as wave (i) of [i] of ‘1’ of (5).
So there is a whole lot of potential for the next phase of the rally.
This bullish count calls for a corrective decline to a higher low in wave (ii) over the coming days,
so that is one to keep an eye on.

Tomorrow;
The main count is now reduced to one possibility for wave [iv].
That is a contracting triangle which will hold below 1849.
And then wave [v] will fall again towards the 1700 level to complete three waves down in wave ‘C’ of (4).

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude is forming a top here with the action in general showing a momentum burnout!
The 4hr chart shows a momentum divergence which can easily be associated with a top.
A double extreme reading followed by a decline into the centreline again.
This pattern could give way pretty soon with this backdrop.

As for the short term pattern.
Wave (v) of [v] does call for one last break of the recent highs at 46.26 again before turning down.
So I am allowing for that to happen before looking for the next sharp decline.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) to complete soon.
If the price falls below 44.00 again off a new high,
that will signal the next leg down is beginning.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P did pop to a very slight new high today,
before shying away from the breakout this evening.

The short term pattern in wave [v] calls for a continued rally in wave ‘iii’ of (iii) up towards the 3720 handle soon.
After that we will have most of the rally in place with just one last high left ahead of us in wave (v) of [v].

There is the potential for an ending diagonal pattern here also.
The red trendlines show this possibility.
In this case,
the 3722 target for wave [v] looks promising too.

Tomorrow;
Price should hold above 3642 at wave ‘ii’ pink.
Wave ‘iii’ should continue higher for the next few sessions.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver is holding up well so far as the action looks corrective overall
and there is a rising chance of a bullish higher low developing over the coming week.

Wave [ii] may now be tracing out a zigzag correction off the high.
Wave (c) of [ii] should fall below 23.60 at the wave (a) low.
But I would like to see a drop into 23.09 at the 50% retracement level to call wave [ii] complete.
At that point I will be looking for a significant rally into wave [iii].

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to drop once more into the 23.00 handle again to complete three waves down.