Good evening to one and all and may the Lord Bless you all again this fine evening.

I must confess I am feeling a little under the weather today,
with a dull headache and my two eyes just want to head straight up to bed and shut down.
Its a dull and dreary time of year in this part of the world.
It doesn’t get bright until after 8.30,
and its dark again by 4.30.
I think the lack of vitamin ‘D’ takes its toll after a while.

Anyway,
I will keep it short and to the point before I fall asleep on the keyboard!

By the way;

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/citi-warns-100-probability-loss-most-euphoric-market-dot-com-bubble

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

Today brought the inevitable and dreaded break of 1.2010 that has invalidated the drop into wave (D) of the triangle.
I am not going to abandon the idea just yet though,
As this market looks as tired as I do.

I am testing the idea that wave (C) is topping out again in an ending diagonal.
And if we do see a drop back below 1.1900 again that will turn my focus to the downside again.

Tomorrow;
Sometimes you just have to be patient for a pattern to play out.
And this is one of those times.
Lets see if the ending diagonal wave [v] shows signs of turning about face tomorrow.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable has not quite broken the pattern,
but we are quite close to invalidating the wave [b] top this evening.
The market spiked higher out of that corrective action yesterday reaching 1.3438 at the high.
I will give wave [c] one more chance to start tomorrow,
and if the market does not turn,
then I will consider the short term count again.

Tomorrow;
I am now looking at 1.3260 as a signal point for the turn into wave [c].
Watch for 1.3483 to hold.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

The USD has not lost any ground against the JPY today,
and that is the one glimmer of hope at the moment for the bullish USD stance in the short term.

I am still hunting for that run above 104.76 initially to signal that wave ‘i’ of (iii) is in force.
At the moment USDJPY is building a series of higher lows in the pattern.
As as long as this scenario continues,
then I will keep an eye on the upside in wave (iii).

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold at 103.82 overnight as wave ‘i’ develops higher.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

It looks like wave (iii) is underway today with a nice spike higher to challenge the wave (i) high.
I have labelled this wave ‘i’ of (iii),and I expect we will see wave ‘ii’ hold above that rising trend line again tomorrow.
A drop into 29750 will likely be enough to complete wave ‘ii’.
And then wave ‘iii’ of (iii) should push above 30500 again at a minimum.
This level is where wave ‘iii’ and wave ‘i’ will reach equality.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete in the area of 29700 and then turn higher again.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

If the current short term count is correct,
then we will see a ranging trade this week in wave [iv] green.

The rally in gold today is labelled as wave (a) of [iv] so far,
this count suggests another drop into wave (b) of [iv] tomorrow.
And this should complete above 1770 again.

I know we are close to a significant low here now,
but my gut tells me there is another test of that low 1730 area ahead of us again
before we finally do head up again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (b) to fall correctively below 1800 again.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude is still falling in a channel today and this is pretty indicative of a correction so far.
Unless we get a serious acceleration lower over the next day or so,
then I expect this fifth wave extension to run higher again above 46.26 to complete.

I have shown a different pattern for wave [v] today because of this prolonged correction today.
This simply involves an extension within wave [v] to complete the pattern.

tomorrow;
This correction should hold above 43.31at the wave [iii] high.
Wave (v) of [v] is likely to begin tomorrow.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

I am looking at todays rally as a rapidly developing wave (iii) of [v].
The size of the rally has reached 78% of wave (i) so far.
So we might close out the full wave (iii) rally soon if this acceleration continues.

Wave (iii) should push close to 3722 at the projected high before correcting in wave (iv).

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) to continue towards the upper trend channel line.
If we see a decline back below 3630 again
that will suggest a ‘i’ ‘ii’ pattern is underway in a wave (iii) extension.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver rallied impressively in an impulsive manner today.
the price has retraced a large percentage of the previous decline,
so this begs the question,
is this the beginning of something bigger?

I am still on the fence this evening though.
The recent lows in wave ‘C’ did not break the wave ‘A’ low as seen on the 4hr chart,
so there is still an element of suspicion here!

That said,
I am looking at the bullish possibilities this evening for the beginning of wave [3] up.

If this rally is wave [i],
then we should see a corrective higher low develop before the end of the week.
If that happens,
then this market will be looking very interesting indeed.