Good evening folks.

Again, I pray God’s Blessing on you all tonight.

Here is how the DXY stands in COT futures as of last week.

We have a pretty convincing setup here where the market has solidified on the narrative that the USD is dead.

And this has usually led to a significant rally in the USD in the past.

It seems the market is trying to tell us something here!

Down to business.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD is making an attempt today to reverse course into that alternate count.
The price spiked lower and broke 1.1814 in a nice impulsive move.
The price has recovered slightly this evening,
so at the moment we may be looking at waves (i) and (ii) of [c] now underway.
This count calls for a hard down week ahead in wave [c] of ‘C’ of (D).
And we should see at least a break of the 1.16 handle in this case.

Tomorrow;
watch for 1.1900 to hold and wave (ii) to complete below that level.
Wave (iii) will begin with a break of 1.1800 again.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Despite breaking above 1.3310 today to invalidate Fridays count,
the market has spiked lower again in another possible wave ‘i’ down.
the top tick of the day in wave (c) of [b] reached just above the 162% extension of wave (a).
This is another hint in favor of the count.

Tomorrow;
If wave ‘ii’ pink is now underway and should complete a lower high pretty soon.
Wave ‘iii’ of (i) will carry price below 1.31 with ease,
and that will confirm the turn into wave [c].

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY turned about face today along with the others and pushed higher into wave ‘i’ of (iii).
the cat that we have a double bottom with a very small higher low leads me to believe that wave ‘c’ of (ii) complete with a failed fifth wave after a triangle.
Its a strange occurrence,
but the spike higher this afternoon is definitely impulsive looking.
So I am willing to risk in favor of the bullish count.

Tomorrow;
Ideally wave ‘i’ of (iii) will push above 105.12 and break the cycle of lower highs.
If wave (iii) is in force now then this should be a pretty strong week for the USD.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The Market is pretty quiet today and so far we are still rolling along in a holding pattern today.

I have switched the short term count today to show a possible three wave correction in wave [iv] green.
And now a rally should begin in wave [v] green off the session low.

There is an alternate count showing a triangle in wave [iv] also.
If this triangle proves correct in wave [iv],
then we will another day of consolidation to complete the pattern.
And then wave [v] of ‘5’ should begin.

Either way I think this moment will prove to be a pretty important point in the overall pattern.
with only one last push above 31000 to finish five waves up in wave ‘5’.

Tomorrow;
We have a tight range to hold in now for the triangle to prove correct.
A break of 30090 again will signal wave [v] of ‘5’ is underway.
While a break below 28930 again will prolong wave [iv] as a flat correction.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold took another big step in the right direction today with that spike lower off Fridays lower high.
This action favors the idea that wave (iii) down is now underway.
(iii) of [iii] should do most of the heavy lifting on the way to completing wave ‘C’ and wave (4).
the target for that larger wave (4) still lies down around the 1750 area,
so there is a way to go yet.

In terms of the previous alternate count for wave [ii],
todays action has really reduced the probability for that to happen.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) to continue lower for the next few days.
The price must now hold below 1879 as wave ‘C’ completes.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude has recovered impressively over the last few weeks,
and that rally is now threatening to break the pattern I have been working with for so long!
you can see that pattern on the weekly chart above.
And right now I am tracking a fifth wave down in wave ‘c’ black.

There is a viable alternate pattern for the weekly count that I have shown above also.
but that count allows for a rally back into the 90 handle to complete wave ‘b’ black as you can see.
That is quite a rally,
and quite a turn around from where we were a few weeks ago.

Tomorrow;
This next few days action are pretty crucial in terms of this weekly count and all the way down.
The price must hold below the 43.80 level and return lower pretty quickly into wave [i].
A break of that level will force me to rethink the pattern completely.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P may have completed a triangle in wave [iv] today at the lows of the session.
The margin for error in this pattern is pretty small now,
and a drop below 3544 will rule this out.
On the upside,
a break above 3592 will signal wave wave [v] of ‘5’ has begun.

Wave [v] will reach equality with wave [i] at 3732 so that level is now my minimum target for this pattern.
In the larger pattern off the March lows,
wave ‘5’ blue will reach equality with wave ‘1’ blue at 3690.
So that gives us a nice target range for wave ‘5’.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [iv] to hold above 3544 to complete.
Wave [v] should come soon with a break of 3592.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Wave ‘3’ down got a vote of confidence today with that decline below 23.55.
The price is holding at that level right now as wav ‘i’ of (iii) closes out.
Wave (iii) should continue lower and push right down below 22.00 again to complete.
The price must hold below 24.50 at wave (ii) for this pattern to remain valid.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ of (iii) to hold below 24.50 and then wave ‘iii’ of (iii) should accelerate lower into that 22 handle again.