Good evening folks.

I pray God’s Blessing on you all tonight.

Here are some articles and charts that I just could not ignore tonight!

Profit expectations for the next year;

Euphoric Wall Street Goes “Full Bull” As Optimism Hits 20 Year High

Homebuilder Sentiment Soars To Yet Another Record High

Bitcoin Surges Above $17,000 – “Mainstream Adoption Is Rising”

The world is gone full tilt bullish and of course there is no risk what so ever in the market, just buy and go to sleep!

Pushing Extremes – John Hussman.

The one reality that you can never change is that a higher-priced asset will produce a lower return than a lower-priced asset. You can’t have your cake and eat it. You can enjoy it now, or you can enjoy it steadily in the distant future, but not both – and the price we pay for having this market go higher and higher is a lower 10-year return from the peak.

– Jeremy Grantham, CNBC, November 12, 2020

Down to business.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD is creeping up towards the wave ‘A’ high at 1.1920 in a pretty suspicious manner really.
The action seems very tense and lacks any real momentum behind it,
so I just cant rule out the alternate count at all.
And after another day of net zero progression,
it seems the alternate count is rising in probability.

Tomorrow;
A break of 1.1920 will obviously rule out the alternate count and then I will focus on wave ‘C’ completing below 1.2010.
But if we see a drop below 1.1800 again that will lean in favor of the alternate idea for wave ‘C’ of (D).

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

I have shown a variation on the theme for wave [b] tonight.
This involves an ending diagonal wave (c) of [b].
With wave (c) yet to complete.
Wave ‘v’ of (c) will complete with a break of 1.3312 at the wave ‘iii’ high.
Once wave (c) completes,
a break below 1.3106 again will then confirm wave [c] has begun.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave (c) of [b] to pop up above 1.3312.
A touch of the upper trend channel line will happen at about 1.3350.
Then I am looking for a sharp move lower to begin wave [c].

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

Its a day for variation!

The decline off the recent high at 105.65 has traced out three waves down.
I am now labelling this as a three wave correction in wave (ii) as shown on the short term chart.
The price hit the 62% retracement level this evening,
so we are in that critical area for a rally to begin after a correction.
If wave (iii) is coming,
then it needs to start soon.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a push back above the wave ‘b’ high at 105.12 to signal a turn into wave (iii) has begun.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

I read enough stories today that raised red flag after red flag regarding the hyper extended nature of this rally and the
bubbling bullishness towards the economy going into 2021,
and I just can’t help taking this onboard
and reflecting the extreme nature of these social mood signals in the wave count.

So tonight we start the hunt for the top again!

I have moved up the recent high and correction by one degree and now we have waves (iii) and (iv) of [iii] complete.
Wave (v) of [iii] is now underway.
And I am looking for a five wave pattern in wave (v) to trace out over the coming days.
In this interpretation wave [iii] will push up towards the 31000 level before correcting into wave [iv].

Now to the alternate.
If we are bold and regard the recent top as wave [iii] already complete,
then the triangle off that high is wave [iv] green,
and now we are on the final run up into wave [v] green.

This is a pretty interesting count also,
in that wave [ii] and [iv] green are more in proportion.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) of [iii] to march higher over the next few days and bring us close to that 31000 level.

The alternate count also calls for more upside,
but the 31000 level will be the final call for the bull market!

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

There is no escaping the risk of further downside in the metals over the next few weeks.
I am pretty convinced now that we will extend lower into wave ‘C’ by the end of this week.

The pattern in wave [ii] is still in flux at the moment though.
The action has flatlined today after that spike higher yesterday,
so we may yet see one more high at the upper trend channel line in wave (c) of [ii] before we move sharply lower into wave [iii] later this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) of [ii] to close out possibly at 1907 where the price would hit the upper trend line again.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

The margin for error in the crude count is razor thin at the moment.
We saw a three wave decline off the wave ‘a’ high today,
that completes wave ‘b’ of (ii).
And now wave ‘c’ of (ii) is rising again to complete a three wave correction below 43.20.
Wave ‘c’ has a minimum target at 42.34 at the wave ‘a’ high.

Tomorrow;
So we have a tight range where wave (ii) must complete and wave (iii) begin.
Watch for wave ‘c’ to hit 42.30 and then turn down again.
A break of 40.25 again will signal wave (iii) is underway.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The same possibility of a closer top exists in the S&P also tonight.
Given the extremes in sentiment I think I would be stupid to turn a blind eye to it.

So the alternate count allows for wave ‘5’ to close out much quicker than previous shown.

The main count is still tracking the developing wave [ii] of that fifth wave pattern.
Wave [ii] should complete a clear three wave correction and hit the 3450 area to complete.
In this scenario we can expect wave [iii] to carry us higher into Christmas.

the second alternate views the recent top as the final high for wave ‘5’ blue.
Only a sharp reversal to break below 3200 again will favor this count.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) of [ii] to fall into the the minimum target at 3510 again in five waves.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Still no turn into wave [iii] down after a corrective session today.
Todays sideways grind can be viewed as wave (b) of [ii].
In this case wave (c) of [ii] should complete a three wave correction below 25.00 again tomorrow.
And then wave [iii] down can turn lower towards 23.55.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave [ii] green to complete below 25.00.
A sharp move lower into wave [iii] down should then take over.
Wave [iii] down should break below the 23.55 level before the end of the week.