Good evening folks.

I pray you are all well this evening.

A couple of headlines today that I think are picture perfect examples of the type of talk which abounds when we sit and extreme in a market.

First the USD;

Goldman, Citi See Dollar Sliding In 2021, Plunging As Much As 20%

Of course the USD is going to hell in a handbasket after we have had almost 4 years of sideways to net declines!

And then there is bitcoin;

Bank Analyst Puts Bitcoin Price Prediction “As High As $318,000”

Yeah that seems reasonable?????

I mean it’s only 18X this evenings close so why not eh!

Something tells me people are extrapolating the past into the future while we already sit at extremes!

Down to business.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD is hanging in the balance tonight between both short term counts.
The main count can still go ahead and complete wave ‘C’ with a break of 1.1920.
IF that happens tomorrow,
then I will look for a new decline to begin below 1.2010,
and that will kick off wave [C].

The alternate scenario for wave (D) is also valid tonight.
The sharp spike lower off the session high at 1.1868 could easily be the beginning of wave [c] down.

If we see a drop below 1.1745,
then we switch to the alternate count.

Tomorrow;
Watch for price to hold above 1.1745.
A break above 1.1868 will signal wave ‘C’ is underway.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

The short term count in cable depends on the low at 1.3105 labelled wave ‘i’ down.
If this level breaks again tomorrow,
that will signal wave (i) of [c] is now underway,
and we can expect wave [c] of ‘D’ to continue lower into the 1.2300 area over the next week or so.

The high at 1.3312 must hold for this count to remain valid.

Tomorrow;
watch for the high at wave [b] to hold,
and wave (i) of [c] to continue lower and break 1.31 again.
Wave ‘iii’ of (i) should fall into support at 1.2937.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY did spike higher today after hitting the 50% retracement level for wave (i) at the overnight lows.
The price has retreated this evening,
but we are holding above the wave (ii) low at 104.35 this evening.

I have labelled the session high at 105.12 as wave ‘i’ of (iii).
I know the price is very close to invalidating this count now,
but if we do see a rally back above 105.12 again,
that will be a pretty bullish sign for wave (iii).

Tomorrow;
Watch for 104.35 to hold at wave (ii).
and a return higher overnight to begin wave (iii).

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

It is possible that wave (iii) completed at todays highs above 30000 again.
After a triangle wave ‘iv’ and then a rally into a new high today,
that completes five waves up in wave (iii),
and now one step closer to an overall five wave pattern in wave [iii] of ‘5’.

If wave (iii) of [iii] is now down,
then we should see a selloff in wave (iv) over the coming days.
With the wave ‘iv’ low at 28940 now offering a soft target for the next correction.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iv) to begin and fall back into the 29000 level in three waves.

The alternate count for wave [ii] will be triggered if we get a five wave decline from here,
the 50% retracement level of wave [i] is the main target for the alternate count.
And this level lies at the 28000 handle again.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

We had a good start to the session with a sharp selloff out of a three wave correction.
Then came the bounce which has not quite retraced the full decline yet,
but it is enough to open the possibility that wave [ii] was a complex flat correction as now shown.
This involves a running flat wave (b) and that final spike higher to wave (c) today.

Gold is still finding it hard to progress above 1900 again,
and the rally has hit a wall at the 38% retracement level also today,
so I am adding this to the circumstantial evidence that wave [ii] is complete.
All we need is a drop back below 1850 again to kick off wave [iii].

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) of [iii] to drop back below 1850 to confirm that wave [iii] has begun.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

The struggle below 43.00 continues in crude today.
The pattern today shifts the possibility towards an ongoing wave (ii) flat as shown.
The top at wave ‘2’ must continue to hold at 43.27,
and wave [i] of ‘3’ down must turn lower again over the next few sessions.

I realize that I am flirting with invalidation now in this wave count,
but I am willing to give it a chance to develop into an impulsive decline again before throwing in the towell here.

Tomorrow;
43.27 must hold.
Watch for wave (ii) to trace out a three wave correction and then turn down below 39.50 again to signal wave (iii) of [i] is underway.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P did not make a new high today along with the Dow,
but instead has traced out a three wave rally higher in wave (b) of [ii] as shown.

This action fits with the idea for a second wave correction in wave [ii] still underway.
And Wave (c) of [ii] should fall below 3510 again to complete wave [ii] by the middle of the week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the high at wave [i] to hold for now.
The trend channel in wave [ii] seems to be targeting the 50% retracement level at 3453.
That gives us a target range between 3510 and 3450 to complete wave (c) of [ii].

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver spiked into the 25.00 level in the overnight session.
That brought wave [c] of ‘2’ up to touch the upper trend channel line,
and then we saw a sharp spike lower off that line.
Todays decline should be the long awaited first step lower into wave ‘3’ down.
The price is holding at a lower high below wave ‘2’ right now,
So wave [ii] of ‘3’ should complete below that level tomorrow.
And then wave [iii] of ‘3’ is expected to fall sharply to break 23.55 by Thursdays session at the latest.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [ii[ of ‘3’ to hold below 25.00 and turn lower again to begin wave [iii].