Good evening and God’s Blessings to one and all tonight!

I will record the weekend video tomorrow just so you know!

Heres a little chart on my radar tonight and I cant shake the idea that the USD is coming to an important inflection point.

Watch the PINCH of net positions in the USD index!

And What about that ALL time net LONG position in the EURO??

Back to tonight, here it goes.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

That was quite the reversal higher today,
it is possible that tonights high is only wave ‘a’ of (ii) but I have gone with wave (ii) now completing,
simply because wave (ii) should not reach any higher even if a larger structure builds out next monday.

We have a clear three wave pattern in place for wave ‘B’,
and now a lower high almost complete.
So the risk next week is for wave (iii) to come in and accelerate lower to retrace much of the rally in wave ‘B’.

Monday;
Watch for wave (ii) to complete below 1.1880.
And then wave (iii) of [i] to drop back below 1.1786 again to confirm the top in wave ‘B’.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable is looking a little more promising this evening as wave (ii) formed a lower high below 1.3176.
And now we have a spike lower off that corrective lower high.
It is possible that wave (iii) of [c] is already underway after todays action.
But we will need to see an acceleration lower on Monday also to confirm that the top is in for wave [b].

Monday;
watch for a drop below 1.2908 at the wave (b) low to confirm wave [c] is underway.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

Maybe I am a fool to continue looking for a sustained rally into wave [iii],
but the sheer overweight sentiment against the USD alone these days,
is enough to indicate at least a corrective move higher.

But I have my eyes on a much bigger secular move higher which will take years to play out!
So I am willing to bide my time.

If the price does manage to build a further higher low in waves (i) and (ii) next week that will signal we are on the verge of something bigger.

Monday;
Watch for wave [ii] to hold at 104.33.
Wave (i) and (ii) should push to a higher low at about 105.00 again by the end of next week.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

It is again another interesting pattern developing in the stock market.
This market has stagnated over the last few weeks with a slight downside bias overall.
It looks like a series of 1,2 waves as I have mentioned before!
And this evening we got another spike lower at a smaller degree off a possible wave ‘ii’ lower high.

If this is what I think it is,
then next week should be fun!

The next time the market breaks 28000 that will signal an acceleration into wave ‘iii’ is beginning.
The larger wave (iii) can easily bring us down into the previous wave [b] low at about 27150,
at that point we should find support.

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to break below 28000 and continue lower in five waves.

The price must hold below wave ‘ii’ at 28487.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold rallied in three waves up to the early high today,
that is now labelled wave ‘ii’ pink of a larger wave (iii) blue underway.

This afternoon saw another spike lower again into that 1894 low at wave ‘i’,
and if wave ‘iii’ is now getting started,
then next monday should bring fresh selling again.
The initial target for that decline in wave ‘iii’ should be in the area of the previous wave (i) low at 1848.

Monday;
Watch for the wave ‘ii’ high at 1913 to hold and wave ‘iii’ down to begin with a drop below 1894 again.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Todays trade was in the right direction,
but the action has not ruled out the alternate count yet.
The form of the decline is in three waves so far and that can reasonably be viewed as wave ‘b’ of (ii),
so the early action next week will be key to the short term market direction.

Monday;
If the price continues lower and and breaks the 39 handle again,
that will confirm wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is in force.

Any move back above 40.36 again as shown, this will favor the alternate count.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

Another day and another rally into that falling trend channel resistance.
This rally today is viewed in a similar light to the dow,
and the outcome should lead to a follow through on the downside into wave ‘iii’ pink.
A break out of the trend channel to the down side will be a big sign that the top is in at the larger degree wave ‘2’.
And then below that we really only have the September lows at wave ‘1’ holding the market up.

As I mentioned earlier in the week,
the alternate count in the S&P is plausible but not ideal by any stretch!
And a continued decline below 3400 again should dispense of that bullish interpretation.

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold at todays highs and wave ‘iii’ down to carry us below 3340 at a minimum.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

We have so many markets now sitting ‘on the verge’ of a third wave these days that I am beginning to ask myself some serious questions!
Could it really be that the whole complex is about to blow?

I know one thing for sure,
the markets in general are much too peaceful for the times we are in,
and there is a real sense of the calm before the storm now.

Or maybe its just me!

Silver is falling this evening off a three wave correction higher in wave (ii) blue.
The price has not broken below that 24.18 wave (b) low yet,
and I am looking at that point as the signal level for wave [iii] down.
At that point wave [iii] becomes more likely than not!

Monday;
Watch for wave (iii) down to take charge and push below 23.55 to confirm the larger pattern.
25.27 at wave [ii] must hold.

A sincere thank you to all of you at the end of this week.

Grinding along like this in the markets is frustrating I know that much.

And then listening to me every evening cry ‘wolf’ the whole time,
probably gets on your nerves – I can imagine!

But at least you know where I stand eh!

May the Lord of hosts Bless you all,
in the matchless name of the Lion of the tribe of Judah,
Yeshua Hamashiach.
Amen!

Shalom,
see you Monday evening!