Good evening folks.

I was reading John Hussmans latest update last night and I was just laughing to myself how wildly insane this market has become over the last few months.

A bubble it is without a shadow of a doubt.

Actually this is the BIGGEST bubble in history, one that puts the 1929 top in a firm 2nd place now!

According to Hussman, 12 yr expected returns now stand at negative 0.95%.

Now that is an achievement!

Todays decline is interesting for sure, but this is simply a birth-pang of what is going to happen over the coming years.

On with the show.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

Ideally wave (a) down will push below support at 1.1753 to complete.
A break of that previous fourth wave will rule out any further extension in wave (C) red.

So far we have three waves down into the session low.
I am counting this as an ongoing impuslive move in wave (a) of [a].
And one move drop should complete a five wave move lower in wave (a).

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (a) to drop into 1.1753 to complete.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable is lower again today but the move has not completed five waves down as expected yet.
It is possible that wave (a) will be a three wave initial drop.
In that case we have wave ‘a’ of (a) already complete.
And wave ‘b’ of (a) will now retrace some of the decline tomorrow to create a lower high.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ pink to rise into 1.3350 and then price should fall again to begin wave ‘c’.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

The long awaited rally in USDJPY has flat out refused to come to reality yet.
I am now faced with looking into alternatives for this price action.
If the price does not begin to accelerate higher by tomorrow evening.
Then I will look at the alternate count on the 4hr chart in more depth come Monday.

I will also go into that count in the video tomorrow,
suffice to say it is a rethink of the structure of wave ‘C’ of (E) to complete the larger triangle in wave [B].

Tomorrow;
If we see a break of 105.58 again that will strongly favor the alternate count.
Wave ‘iii’ must rally soon.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

Well, its a start at least!

The Dow turned solidly lower today in a nice impulsive move.
The price broke out below the small red trend channel for wave (v) grey,
and is now threatening to break below the larger blue channel for wave [c].

Todays decline is the first proper selloff with the ‘right look’ since the June decline.
So as you can expect I am hopeful it will develop into something more substantial over the coming weeks.

Tomorrow;
If this is wave ‘i’ down as shown,
then we can expect a corrective lower high over the coming days.

A the moment we don’t yet have a break of support or any follow through to the downside after a correction higher.
So we need some confirming price action to back up any claim of a top in place.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

You can see that gold has consolidated sideways over the last few weeks.
There is a way to count this sideways move as a corrective triangle within a larger move higher.
If that is the case,
then the high of this week at 1990 will become crucial for any rally over the coming week.
As a break of that level could signal a rally beginning again.
I will be keeping an eye on that idea over the coming days.

Tomorrow;
So far we have five waves down in place off the wave (ii) high,
this signals wave ‘i’ of (iii) is now done and wave ‘ii’ should again correct to a further lower high tomorrow.

Watch for a three wave recovery in wave ‘ii’ and then a decline into wave ‘iii’ to begin next week.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude has recovered off the session low at wave ‘iii’ and is back above 41.00 again this evening.
This action is now viewed as wave ‘iv’ of (iii) nearing completion.
This should lead to a decline again in wave ‘v’ again to complete wave (iii).
Any move back above 42.40 again will rule out this short term count.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) to complete with one more drop below 40.40.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P has taken a nose dive today to wipe out two weeks of gains.
The action is certainly very impulsive looking,
and I have labelled this as wave (i) down.
This count suggests a corrective lower high will form in wave (ii) over the coming days once wave (i) completes.

As with the Dow,
This decline must be taken with a pinch of salt until we get a clear bearish impulse wave lower,
and a break of support after a follow through to the downside.

Tomorrow;
Initial support lies at 3320 at the lower extent of wave (b),
and below that we have the larger wave [iv] at 3200.
So we have some work to do yet to confirm the top is in.
But I am hopeful!

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver is fast approaching that 26.00 level where we can confirm that wave (C) is underway.
At the moment we have a five wave move lower in place.
If wave [i] is complete,
then wave [ii] should correct up to about 27.50 before falling in wave [iii] as shown.
The key to this wave count lies at 26.00 though.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [ii] to correct higher in three waves to about 27.50.
A break of 26.00 will confirm wave [iii] of (C) is underway.