Good evening folks.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

After breaching the recent high overnight at 1.1965 it was time to look again at the pattern into that high.
I still think this is a top formation for sure.
But If we take todays high as the top of wave (v),
then we have a triangle wave (iv) into that high and then a five wave rally into this mornings top.

The market has given up some of that rally this evening,
and so far that decline looks impulsive.

Tomorrow;
watch for at least a three wave decline into wave [a].
A break of 1.1753 will signal wave [a] is underway.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable did rally into the upper trend channel line today at the high,
and so far this evening the price has returned lower again.

The decline must extend lower in a five wave form and break the 1.3052 low in order to confirm the trend has changed.
Before that,
if we see an impulsive lower high in a ‘i’ ‘ii’ pattern by tomorrow evening,
that will signal a turn into wave (a) has begun.

Tomorrow;
Watch for that small impulse wave to build off the high tomorrow.
A break of 1.3283 will strengthen the case for a turn also.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY daily.

Still no acceleration higher in USDJPY today.
The price did rise off the lows at wave ‘ii’ pink,
but the rise is very soft so far.
We need an explosive move higher to confirm wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
Ideally a break of 107.05 will signal the bottom is in place.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold at 105.58.
A rally in wave ‘iii’ must accelerate overnight.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The Dow is holding at a lower high this evening but the price has not moved below the elliott channel yet.
It is interesting that the relentless rally in stocks is now confined to the nasdaq.
As the S&P and Dow seem to have run out of steam.
We will see if this translates into a larger non-confirmation later in the week.

if this is an impulsive decline off the top in a ‘i’ ‘ii’ pattern,
then we must see a follow through to the downside begin soon.
The initial level of interest lies at the low of wave ‘iv’ pink at 28090.
But a sharp move below 28000 again will favor the bearish side in the short term at least.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a bearish follow through to begin this week.
If we see a break of 27450 this week I will then start to look firmly lower again.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold is falling this evening after making a slight new high in wave ‘c’ of (ii) early on.
This action completed a five wave rally in wave ‘c’,
and if wave (ii) is now complete,
then we must see a reversal into wave (iii) for the rest of the week.

The alternate count allows for a continued consolidation sideways in a triangle wave [b].

Tomorrow;
1902 remains the key level in the short term.
A break of that low will signal wave (iii) is underway.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude has created a narrowing range of action over the last few sessions.
This action is best viewed as a triangle in wave ‘b’ of (c) so far.
And this does suggest a rally in wave ‘c’ is left to complete wave (c) over the coming days.

Tomorrow;

The price must remain above 41.45 for this short term count to remain valid.
If we see a break of that low,
that will signal the tide is finally turning lower in crude.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

I can see a series of three wave moves over the last few days action.
So far this can be viewed as a contracting triangle wave ‘iv’.
with one more rally in wave ‘v’ left to come to complete the three wave pattern in wave (c) of [v].

Tomorrow;
This top is a throw-over in wave (c) of [v] as part of an ending diagonal.
The first sign of a reversal will come with a drop back below the wedge shown in blue trend lines.

We are almost at the end of this pattern,
and the turn off the high will likely come with a really sharp move lower to begin a first wave down.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver is moving sharply off the top this evening is a possible wave [i] down.
This pattern suggests we will see a lower high in wave [ii] over the next day or so.
Which should be followed by a larger move lower in wave [iii] by the end of the week.
The price must now hold below the session high at 28.88.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave [i] to continue lower.
A break of the 26.00 handle this week will confirm wave ‘C’ is in force.