Good evening to one and all.

I did not get a chance to do the weekend video this time around!

My wife was on night duty, and still is for that matter, so that fact really reduces the alone time around here!

Three small kids do not lend them selves to productivity!

Down to tonights intro.

Here is a few charts I found today from Yardini research which reveal just how stupidly overextended we really are int he stock-market.

Of course this one is not a bubble either!

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

It looks like we have an impulsive decline in the making after todays trade.
The decline off the top should fall some more before making a low.
Ideally I want to see a break of the 1.1694 low at wave (iv),
and then a lower high in a second wave.
Then we can get constructive to the downside.

Tomorrow;
This initial drop should break 1.1694 at a minimum.
If we cant take out that level then I will be suspicious!

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable has not taken out the previous fourth wave low at 1.2891 yet.
But the price has traced out a small three wave correction to a lower high labelled wave (ii).
As long as the recent high at 1.3184 holds,
then we can look to the next leg down into wave ‘D’ over the coming weeks.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a drop into wave (iii) of [a] to begin.
A break of 1.2891 again will signal that wave (iii) has begun.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY daily.

I am looking for a three wave drop into wave (ii) to complete overnight.
If the price holds above 105.29 at wave [ii]
then we should see a turn higher this week into wave (iii) of [iii].
Wave [iii] should involve an acceleration phase.
In that case we should see wave (iii) of [iii] rally above 107.52 at a minimum.
This is where wave [iii] will reach 100% of wave [i].

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) to push higher.
A break of 106.46 will signal wave (iii) is underway.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The DOW has added insult to injury today and broken above the June highs.
this is a bitter disappointment for me,
but the market does not care about my thoughts, or anyone else’s for that matter!
It is hell bent on pursuing extreme optimism to the inevitable end.
So be it.

4hr chart.
I have introduced the next most likely count for wave (B) or [B] tonight.
The action since the June high is labelled as a triangle in wave [b] of ‘C’.
The whole rally off the March lows is a triple combination correction.
With the final wave [c] of ‘C’ now completing a three wave move itself.

1hr chart;
The last leg higher in wave (c) of [c] has now very close to completing a five wave wave rally.
That classifies wave [c] as a 3,3,5 flat correction higher.

Tomorrow;
As always I am looking for a top in wave (B).
The most significant level under us right now lies at 25426.
I can only await an impulsive decline to raise the probability for a wave (B) to be done.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold has not fallen enough to get overly excited about the downside just yet.
But I can see a five wave decline off the high.
The action into todays high can also be viewed as a three wave correction higher.
So we may have a bearish impulsive wave now in place.

It certainly fits with the sentiment picture in the metals these days.
The extreme optimism is definitely indicative of at least an interim top in wave (3).
And I do feel like we need a reasonable selloff to shake out this over optimism.
Wave (4) should accomplish that for sure.

Tomorrow;
watch for a continued decline in wave (iii) down to break at least 1980 again.
I want to see a larger five waves down to trace out this week.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

The short term pattern in crude is very messy at the moment
I cant commit to any real impulsive move off the high at the moment.
The price can certainly develop into a five wave pattern over the next few days,
but I am going to wait and see first off all.
There is plenty of time to get constructive to the downside once we have an impulse wave down in place.

Tomorrow;
So far the decline is in three waves off the high.
Lets see if the action can build a larger five waves down over the coming week.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

There is an inevitability about a new all time high now in the S&P,
even though this market has never been so obviously stupendously overbought and sickeningly overoptimistic!
It seems like an atom bomb set off on wall street would even be taken as bullish at this point.
Think of all the reconstruction investment!

So far the ending diagonal wave [v] is still in play,
the market has crept to the upside with incredible low breadth over the last few weeks.
With the top 5 companies now accounting for 25% of the index,
Put differently,
1% of the index participants accounts for 25% of the price!
Now that is a leveraged extreme if there ever was one!

Tomorrow;
Whether we reach a new all time high or not does not matter at this point.
The market is in the most dangerous position in history.
The next impulsive decline is within reach for sure.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver has clawed back some of its losses from late last week.
But the price is still in a very precarious position right now.

A month ago I was looking for an explosive move to the upside to finish five waves up.
and there was no external ‘reason’ to expect it to happen, but it did!

Now I am looking for a serious decline to occur in wave [2].
And the general consensus seems to be that there no reason why that would happen either!
So be ready for it!

Tomorrow;
A further decline back below 26.00 again will signal wave (A) has begun.
Lets see if the top at wave [i] can hold.