Good night Y’all!
A word on divergences between the indexes.
Here we go.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
It is hard to figure out the correct degree of the recent move off the highs.
I am going with waves [i] and [ii] of ‘A’.
but this could also be a three wave decline in wave ‘A’.
So this recent decline can also be treated as waves (i) and (ii) of [a] of ‘A’.
It all depends on how wave (D) of the triangle shapes up.
Only time will tell on that front.
At the moment it serves perfectly well to allow for a five wave decline in wave ‘A’.
Tomorrow;
We are close to wave [ii] completing.
Watch for wave (c) of [ii] to hit the upper trend channel at about 1.1830,
and then fall again into wave [iii].
A break of 1.1696 will signal wave [iii] has begun.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
The early morning high at 1.3106 is the level where wave ‘v’ will be confirmed now.
As long as price holds below that point,
then we have a chance that wave [a] down is already underway as per the alternate count.
If the price breaks 1.2981 again,
that will favor the alternate count.
Tomorrow;
The final move higher in wave ‘v’ should not take long before topping and then turning down into wave [a].
1.3106 is the key level in the short term.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY seems to have decline in a corrective three wave move today.
This opens up the possibility that wave [ii] is complete and wave [iii] is now underway.
I have shown the decline today as wave (ii) of [iii],
and then wave (iii) of [iii] will begin with a break of 106.46.
If the price breaks 105.57 again that will signal wave wave [ii] is tracing out a larger pattern.
Tomorrow;
watch for 105.57 to hold,
a break above 106.46 will confirm the main wave count.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
I can see five waves up into todays highs at 26814.
This is now labelled as wave ‘c’ of (ii) in place.
The decline off the wave ‘2’ top is now viewed as a leading wedge in wave (i).
And the rally into todays high is in three waves within wave (ii).
If this short term count is correct,
the price should move rapidly lower over the coming few sessions in wave (iii) of [i].
Tomorrow;
Watch for price to fall back below 26000 again to signal wave (iii) is underway.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
The rally in Gold is inching towards the alternate count this evening,
This would allow for a rally into the 2100 area over the next week.
But,
the ending diagonal wave ‘v’ is still in play
so I have not invalidated this count at the moment and it still remains my most likely outcome.
Either way,
I think we are close to a pretty major top in gold now.
So I prefer caution at this time.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘v’ to complete one more decline and rally cycle to finish a five wave ending diagonal pattern.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude is also inching up towards a final high.
Todays rally invalidated last nights short term count.
But the pattern has morphed into a larger ending diagonal wave ‘C’ to complete wave (4).
This final move higher in wave [v] of ‘C’ will trace out a three wave pattern itself.
And at this moment,
it seems that wave (c) of [v] is now in force.
Tomorrow;
Wave (c) of [v] will take us back to about 43.50 again and then I will begin to look lower into wave (5) again.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
I have reviewed the count for wave [v] of ‘C’ tonight.
the pattern is now fitting another ending diagonal as show on the short term count.
The move higher over the last few days is in three waves
and this fits with a final move into wave (v) of [v].
the narrowing range I spoke about last night is also right on point with the ending diagonal pattern.
Then sprinkle on top of that the euphoric over bullish positioning and sentiment.
And we got a recipe for disaster in the making.
Tomorrow;
So right now the S&P is finely balanced with very little upside potential in a fifth wave.
I suspect we will see cracks develop before the end of the week.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Wave [b] of ‘4’ is proving difficult to pin down as every ‘b’ wave is really.
The rally today is now viewed as wave (c) of [b].
Wave (c) shot higher out of a triangle which completed early this morning in wave (b).
Wave (c) of [b] is now pushing towards the upper trend channel line again.
This will create a new high in wave [b],
and that will classify wave ‘4’ as an expanded flat correction.
Tomorrow;
Wave [b] should be nearly done with three waves up now in place.
Wave [c] will begin before the end of this week.
And that will carry the price down into the 20 handle again in five waves.