Hello everyone!
Here is the weekend video for you, I recorded a longer version but the video kept stalling and it is unwatchable!
Here we go.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD hit the upper trend channel line in wave (v) this morning and topped out at 1.1907.
The market turned immediately lower off that high.
The decline is looking impulsive so far,
and now we are in line for a reversal into wave ‘A’ of (D).
Monday;
The initial support I am watching lies at 1.1697.
This is the low of the previous wave ‘a’ of (iv).
Watch for wave [i] of ‘A’ to break that low and then form a lower high in wave [ii].
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable is posting the first reasonable decline for over a week today.
It is too early to tell if this drop will continue and trace out an impulse wave lower.
But that is where I am looking now after the rally has become well over extended of late.
Monday;
watch for wave [a] of ‘D’ to gain strength with a five wave decline off the high.
I would like to see wave [a] fall below 1.2670 over the coming week.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY made a final low in wave ‘C’ at 104.19 overnight.
The rally off the low today is clear evidence that the USD is now turning positive again.
The move higher looks impulsive and the high so far today has hit the 106.00 level again.
This market has now posted a major reversal warning signal.
If we have a long term triangle now complete in wave [B],
then the next move is a long term rally in wave [C] to play out over the coming few years.
The USD is not dead yet!
Monday;
There my be some more upside in wave [i],
but watch for a clear higher low to form over the next few days in wave [ii] as shown.
I want to see wave [ii] complete above 105.00.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
Despite a late comeback last night,
the DOW has reversed tracks again today and pretty much wiped out the rally.
This action has opened up the possibility for a running flat wave (ii) now formed at todays highs.
And if this is correct, wave (iii) down is now underway.
Next week should be dominated by the downside in wave (iii).
And the low of wave (iii) should threaten the 25000 level again.
Monday;
Watch for a small lower high in wave ‘ii’ of (iii),
followed by further selling in wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold has two options in the short term as far as I can see.
Option 1;
The main count calls for an ending diagonal in wave ‘v’ to complete very soon
with a run into the 2000 level to complete five waves in that wedge formation.
Option 2;
The action off the wave ‘iv’ low has created a series of 1,2, waves higher.
This would allow for an extension to form in wave ‘v’ much like wave ‘iii’.
in this scenario we could see a run up to 2100 before turning lower again.
Monday;
In the short term the key level lies at 1939.
If that level breaks it will favor the main count,
And if 1906 breaks,
then we can prepare for a larger downside move in wave (4) to get underway.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
I have shown an alternate count for wave ‘C’ on the short term chart.
Even though the action this week favors the downside,
the pattern so far can be viewed as a three wave decline.
With that in mind,
we can view all of wave ‘C’ as an ending diagonal.
And this weeks decline as wave [iv] of ‘C’.
This alternate count will allow for a break of 42.50 again in wave [v] green.
Monday;
This alternate count can be ruled out completely if we see a further drop below 34.60.
Although a break of 37.00 again will favor wave (iii) down.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
Most of the overnight spike higher has been retraced this evening.
Its a case of sell the fact on this one!
It is funny to think that the five stocks that have carried this market higher over the last few months get a further boost today,
even though they are about the most expensive over bought and ridiculously valued stocks in the history of any index.
But thats a bubble for you!
Even after this frantic rally overnight,
the market did put in a lower high at wave (ii) this week.
The prospect now is for wave (iii) down to come on strong next week.
Monday;
Watch for a break of that key 3200 level to break as wave (iii) picks up steam.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is moving towards a lower high in wave [b] after todays reversal higher.
Wave (c) of [b] will push up to the 25.00 handle again
if we continue to follow the flat correction pattern.
Wave [b] could also morph into a contracting triangle,
in that case we will see a quiet trade on Monday and a continuation sideways to complete wave [b] at about 24.00.
Monday;
watch for a clear lower high to finish by Tuesday at the latest.
Wave [c] down will be confirmed with a break of 22.25 again.
Thanks for hanging out with me again this week.
Some time next week will see the introduction of 4 new markets to the nightly update,
the style will change slightly,
but the format will remain the same.
Anyway,
Here’s to an enjoyable weekend.
I pray God’s Blessing over you all.
Until Monday,
enda.
over and out!