Gutten nacht everyone!
I have created a survey for everyone to have your say on which markets you want me to include in the new shake-up.
you will find that here: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/V3XGXQ9
AS for that negative sentiment against the USD, the latest COT data on the USDX shows a pretty clear picture.
Here we go.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
Wave (iv) completed as a running flat last night
and the market then turned higher off that higher low of wave ‘c’ of (iv) today.
The elliott channel connecting waves (ii) and (iv) now project a high up at about 1.1900 in wave [v].
Tomorrow;
EURUSD is about as over-extended as the Nasdaq right now, and I suspect both markets will fall together also!
Watch for a touch of that upper trend channel line in wave (v) of [v] to complete wave ‘C’.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
We now have a throw over in place above the larger trend channel line for wave [c] of ‘C’.
I have discarded the alternate count this evening
for the simple reason that the rally has extended close to that upper target at 1.3200 now,
It is interesting also that wave ‘c’ of (c) will reach 162% of wave ‘a’ at 1.3163,
that level should mark the upper extent of wave [c] of ‘C’.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is cycling through a series of fourth and fifth waves over the last few sessions.
This has caused a marked reversal of downside momentum on the hourly and 4hr charts.
Wave [v] of ‘C’ may well reach that 104.50 target area in the next few hours,
but I don’t see much more downside after that low.
This means I am looking for a real reversal to the upside to begin next week.
Tomorrow;
Lets see if the overnight trade falls into that target area around 104.50.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The Dow briefly broke below the 26000 level earlier today only to retrace a good portion of that decline later.
The pattern this week seems to favor a running flat wave (ii) as shown,
and then a decline into wave (iii) beginning today.
The high at wave (ii) at 26600 should hold from here on out.
And if wave (iii) is now underway,
then the market must return lower again tomorrow.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘ii’ of (iii) to top at a lower high and wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to begin.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
This weeks action has really put a halt to the acceleration phase for gold.
The decision we face now is this.
Did wave ‘v’ complete at Wednesdays high?
Or is todays higher low simply marking a the first moves higher in wave ‘v’.
That second option will allow for wave ‘v’ to extend in a five wave pattern itself.
Tomorrow;
Todays drop does look corrective so far.
So, if wave ‘v’ is going to extend,
then we should see another rally back above 2000 and a clear five wave pattern to a final high.
The low at wave ‘iv’ must hold at 1906.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
The action in crude over the last few months has been anything but ideal from a pattern point of view.
And todays action is nothing different!
The price did fall back below the 40 handle again in wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
but the market then rebounded quite sharply into this evenings high.
This can be viewed as wave ‘iv’ of (iii),
but we will have to see a reversal lower in wave ‘v’ of (iii) soon.
Tomorrow;
Watch for the price to hold below the wave ‘i’ low at 40.87.
A break of that level will force a rethink of this short term count.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P did create a larger three wave pattern into a lower high in wave (ii).
This was followed by a sharp move lower early this morning.
And now this evening we have another lower high being created again.
I have labelled this drop and recovery as waves ‘i’ and ‘ii’ of (iii) now underway.
This requires a serious acceleration lower over the next few days to confirm wave (iii).
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iii’ down to begin with a break of 3200 again.
Wave (ii) must hold at 3264.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is heading lower again today,
but the decline is not as clear cut as I expected it would be in a (c) wave.
The price has come to a dead stop this evening for example,
and I would expect wave (c) of [a] to be moving in a five wave decline to a new low.
This action has opened up the possibility that we are in fact now moving within wave [b] already.
And that is what I have shown as the main count now.
Tomorrow;
Wave [b] will create a larger three wave correction completing above 25.00 again over teh next few days.
then wave [c] down will return lower into the lower trend channel line.
Wave [c] will not begin until late next week in this scenario.