Good evening to one and all and I pray you had a Blessed day!
Things got wild in the metals today, but I think we can make some sense of this action within the current wave count. And also the USD is approaching a very significant low, which will likely coincide with a drop in the metals over the next few months.
So there is a convergence emerging between these markets that is valuable to keep an eye on now!
On with the show.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
The rally has cooled off today after a rapid rise over the last week.
As you know I am looking for a pretty significant turning point in the USDX markets over the next few weeks.
EURUSD is facing a decline in wave (D) of a triangle.
This wave has the potential to carry us back down to the 1.06 handle again before turning up again in wave (E).
This can be seen best on the daily chart.
Tomorrow;
On the 4hr chart you can see the price has now filled the channel in wave ‘C’ of (C).
So now we need to be looking for an impulsive move lower.
Watch for wave (i) of [i] to complete five waves down by tomorrow evening.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
If cable has not already completed this rally in wave (c) of [c], then it is very close!
The price has now filled the trend channel in wave (c).
We have three waves up in wave (c) also,
and I can see flat lining momentum on the 4hr chart.
At the very least we are going to see a correction in the next few days.
If the next drop breaks below the wave ‘a’ high at 1.2671,
that will rule out the alternate count,
and then We can concentrate on building a bearish impulse wave off the high to begin wave ‘D’.
Wave ‘D’ should find support at the 1.20 area again as seen on the 4hr chart.
Tomorrow;
watch for any weakness to develop off the two trend channels that are above right now.
A spike below 1.2811 will be the first sign that this pair is turning.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is very close to completing a five wave decline in wave ‘C’ of (E).
I am allowing for wave [v] of ‘C’ to fall a little more over the next day or two,
The price will touch the lower trend channel line at about 104.00.
but we are very close to a bottom now I think.
The first sign that the low is in for wave [v] of ‘C’ will be when we see a rally back above 106.00 again.
That might happen before the end of this week,
so lets wait and see.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [v] of ‘C’ to find a low in the 104.00 area.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
It is possible that wave (i) and (ii) of [i] are now complete off the recent highs.
The price is a little lower today but the price action is not convincing just yet.
Todays drop could also be viewed as an internal wave ‘b’ of (ii).
This would allow for a larger wave (ii) to trace out by tomorrow evening.
And then we should see a further decline into wave (iii) as shown.
Both interpretations are equally likely right now.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) to gain strength by pushing lower in a more impulsive fashion.
A break of 26000 again will signal that wave (iii) down has begun.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Its been a pretty wild trade in Gold today with the overnight trade pushing up to 1981.
The 261.8% extension of wave (i) lies at 1985,
this level repelled the price today.
But I am expecting another push above that level to complete wave (v).
The decline today is now labelled wave ‘iv’ of (v),
and now wave ‘v’ is underway.
Tomorrow;
Another break above 1985 again will complete a clear five wave pattern higher and close out wave (v) of [v] of ‘5’ of (£).
I am preparing now for a larger decline phase to begin in wave (4).
But lets see if we can complete wave (3) this week.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude has only drifted lower today off Mondays highs.
This action does favor the alternate short term count at the moment.
If the market fails to break 40.00 tomorrow but instead runs above 42.00,
that will trigger the alternate count for wave (v) of [v].
Tomorrow;
An acceleration lower in wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is now essential to confirm a top in place for crude.
Watch for a break below Mondays lows and a drop out of that rising trend channel to confirm wave (iii) down.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P is falling this evening off a three wave recovery to a lower high.
This action is beginning to get very interesting now
in terms of a possible impulsive structure to the downside.
Wave (ii) did trace out three waves up,
but the decline off that lower high is only in three waves so far.
So the possibility remains that wave (ii) can create a larger second wave before turning into the acceleration down in wave (iii).
this is the same alternate scenario as I mentioned for the DOW.
Tomorrow;
The low of wave (i) is set at 3200,
if wee see an acceleration lower to break that level,
that will be the first sign that wave (iii) has begun.
As I mentioned yesterday,
a break below 3128 will confirm wave (iii) is underway.
At that point the current support levels should act as resistance.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
I have been looking at the 4hr chart today to see if there is something that I am missing.
And there is an alternate view on the action that has just dawned on me.
I have marked it circled in red this evening.
There is a chance that we are now moving at one degree higher than previously expected.
In that scenario,
this rally is occurring in wave (3) of [1],
rather than wave ‘3’ of (1).
The alternate count will allow for a correction in wave ‘4’ of (3) and then a rally in wave ‘5’ of (3).
While the main count calls for a waves ‘4’ and ‘5’ to complete wave (1) over the coming weeks.
Tomorrow;
Todays rapid decline is viewed as wave (a) and (b) of [a],
Wave (b) can extend higher in a larger three wave pattern
so it might take a few days to complete.
Wave (c) will then drop back below 22.00 to complete wave [a].