Good evening folks.
Its been a pretty interesting week for sure, lets round it up.
So where do we stand???
Lets take a look:
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD has a little more upside ahead of it if this short term count is correct.
The rally has extended in a third of a third wave this week.
Wave (iii) of [v] has now completed a clear five wave internal pattern.
I suspect that we will see a corrective selloff begin early next week in wave (iv).
And then wave (v) later next week to finish this whole pattern.
Monday;
watch for wave ‘v’ of (iii) to top out soon.
Wave (iv) will fall back into 1.1500 in three waves.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable is very close to invalidating the short term count for wave ‘E’ this evening.
A break of 1.2811 will do that,
and if that happens,
I will switch to the alternate view for wave ‘C’ as shown.
Both counts are calling for a decline to begin next week,
either in wave ‘1’ of (5),
or wave ‘D’ of (4) as per the alternate count.
Monday;
watch for 1.2811 to hold and wave ‘1’ of (5) to begin.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is falling in a wave [iii] of ‘C’ today and has broken the below support at 105.98.
This new count is now confirmed,
and wave ‘C’ is free to fall into the 105.00 handle to complete the larger wave (E) and the triangle wave [B].
Monday;
This count is getting close to a very attractive long term buying opportunity for the USD.
Onc e wave ‘C’ completes,
then we should look for a bullish setup off that low.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW has traced out a five wave pattern lower off this weeks high.
The price is sitting just above support this evening at the previous fourth wave.
I am looking for a decisive break of this support level to rule out the alternate interpretation for wave (iv).
This involves a flat correction completing at todays lows.
But a sharp move lower from these levels next week will suggest wave (iii) has begun.
Monday;
Watch for wave (ii) to complete a small lower high.
Any break below 26000 from here will signal wave (iii) has begun.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is sitting just below the 1900 level this evening and drawing close to that wave (3) top.
As per the 4hr chart,
I would still like to see wave (3) top out in the region of 1960 area.
That will touch the upper trend channel line,
and when that happens I will begin to look lower again in wave (4) as shown.
It is still possible that wave (3) will create a clear throw-over above the upper channel line.
This would be a fitting end to wave (3),
and then the way will be clear for a decline into the 1670 area again in wave (4) over the coming months.
That wave (4) low will offer a very attractive buying opportunity again.
As the following wave (5) has the potential to carry up as far as 2600 again.
But I am getting ahead of myself now!
There is another alternate count shown on the daily chart that is even more bullish in the short term.
I will revisit that count next week.
Monday;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ of (v) to cool off over the coming few days.
this correction will likely hold above 1860 again.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Although crude is falling over the last few sessions,
the action has only created a three wave decline off the high so far.
This leaves open the possibility that we are only falling collectively at the moment.
I will stick with the bearish outlook for the moment,
but any rally off this low on Monday will rule out the bearish count in the short term.
Monday;
Watch for wave (iii) to accelerate lower and confirm the bearish outlook for wave [i] down.
A break of 38.60 again will confirm the bearish count.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
It looks like we have five waves down nearing completion this evening in the S&P.
There is no break of support yet in this decline,
but I suspect we will not see that until wave (iii) down gets underway next week.
We should see a lower high in wave (ii) complete below 3280 again early next week.
And then wave (iii) should take us back below 3100.
I am looking for a break below the 3000 level again in the larger wave [i] down.
Monday;
watch for wave (ii) to complete on Monday,
wave (iii) down is expected to begin by late Tuesday at a minimum.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
The action in Silver off the high this week is looking more like a triangle correction in wave (iv) of [v] after todays action.
The triangle should be complete at this evenings low of 22.43.
And if this is correct,
wave (v) should continue higher off this point and target the 24.00 area before completing next week.
Monday;
A break above 23.27 again at the upper extent of the triangle will confirm that wave (v) is underway.
Once wave ‘3’ completes next week,
I expect we will see another fall back towards the 19.00 area where a cluster of support lies.
That is it for another week.
As I mentioned earlier,
I will be introducing new charts later next week.
So far I am thinking of adding the nasdaq, Ftse, the DAX and the hangseng at the moment.
I’m sure there is demand for other markets also,
so let me know what you think.
As a result, the nightly update will change with less writing and more charts.
To compensate for this,
I am thinking about a second video on Wednesday morning.
I am curious to know your thoughts so be sure to email me over the coming days.
I pray you all have a blessed weekend.
This world is moving fast and loose into a new downward spiral,
so I also pray that we can avoid the worst of the destruction that will follow.
enda.
“The Lord bless you and keep you;
The Lord make His face shine upon you,
And be gracious to you;
The Lord lift up His countenance upon you,
And give you peace.”
Numbers 6:24-26