Good evening folks.
I hope you are well.
I mentioned in the video earlier that I will be taking a few days off next week.
We will be heading up north to a little cottage in the middle of nowhere for a bit of an adventure with the kids.
And we will be back home again on Thursday.
So normal service resumes on Thursday night.
We did have a nice 2 week holiday in France booked and payed for last February,
And we were supposed to head off on that trip on Monday!
But the Chinese communist party decided it would be better to throw the world into complete disarray instead.
So that ruined my holiday plans!
Anyway,
on with the show!
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD did complete a three wave correction in wave (iv) blue at last nights lows.
Wave (iv) lies at 1.1369 now,
and the rally off that low is now viewed as wave (v) of [v] now underway.
Monday;
I would like to see wave (v) break out above 1.1494 which would break the march highs.
A rally up to the upper trend channel line will hit 1.1550.
Watch for wave (v) to complete in that range and then turn lower into wave (D) of the triangle.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable has pretty much been asleep this week,
where the price is clearly range bound and contracting also.
This action is beginning to fit a triangle now after todays further higher low.
And so far I am viewing the triangle as wave (b) within wave [c] green.
This suggests a further decline in wave (c) of [c] next week to complete the larger wave ‘D’ of the triangle.
Monday;
Watch for wave (b) to continue to hold below 1.2648 at the higher extent of the triangle.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is also spinning between a few different interpretations this week.
The main two I have shown on the hourly chart.
The main count involves a rally in wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [iii] to begin next week.
The low at 106.63 must hold for this to remain valid.
And wave (iii) blue should take the price out above 109.00 over the next week or so.
The alternate views the price range contraction over the last two weeks as an internal wave (b) triangle within wave [b] green.
This count will be triggered if the price falls below 106.63 again.
Monday;
watch for that initial support to hold
and a rally above 108.17 to begin early next week.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW is holding below the highs of the week as we come into the close tonight.
The action is very hard to call impulsive to the downside yet.
It can always develop impulsively next week to kick off the next leg down,
but I will hold off judgement on that one until we actually see that happen.
For the moment it is still worth repeating that we have a three wave correction in place right now.
Obviously we need that June high to hold and more impulsive action to the downside to confirm this outlook.
Monday;
You can call me stubborn and inflexible!
But I have not changed my outlook for the overall market.
If we have an bearish impulse wave now in place off the high,
then we should see wave ‘3’ down begin early next week.
watch for a break of 26000 again to signal that wave [i] has begun.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
I have outlined my overall take on the gold market in some depth in tonight’s video,
so have a look at that and you can partake in my musings!
The price has rallied again today and we are sitting at a further lower high below wave ‘i’ this evening.
This rally has occurred off a three wave correction in wave ‘ii’ pink.
So I am calling this rally the beginning of wave ‘iii’ of (v).
This count will be confirmed with a break of 1818 again.
Monday;
Watch for wave (v) to continue higher for most of next week.
There is a chance that this final rally in wave (v) of [v] carries us all the way up to a new all time high.
But if the price touches the upper trend line again,
that should at least carry us up towards 1850.
If we see a break of 1789, that will trigger the alternate count.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude oil is completely stagnant today as we approach the end of this final rally within wave ‘C’.
The rise off wave [iv] has been very uninspiring with countless overlaps as the price drifted into resistance.
We have not see a break of the late June high yet,
so this action into this weeks high can still be called a correction higher in wave [ii],
although I do realize that this is a very low probability interpretation now.
Monday;
Watch for a final pop above resistance at 41.47 to signal wave (v) is done.
I am watching for the next leg down to begin over the coming days.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
Today was options expiry for July contracts.
So that might explain the absolute non action today.
If we are to roll over off this high,
then we better get moving early next week and begin to make some inroads into the the initial support levels.
Monday;
I have mentioned 3115 as my initial signal level for wave (i) of [i].
A break of that level will increase the confidence for a turn lower.
The real decision time comes when we make it towards 3000 again.
We have a cluster of supports at 2995 and 2936 again.
Wave [i] down should break those levels before correcting higher again in wave [ii].
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver dropped in three waves into the wave (iv) low at 18.91,
and off that low we have seen a pretty impulsive looking spike higher today.
This rally is viewed as wave ‘i’ of (v) of [i].
The price must hold above 18.91 now as wave (v) develops.
Wave ‘ii’ is expected to form a higher low on Monday,
and then wave ‘iii’ of (v) should continue up towards the upper trend line again.
Monday;
watch for 18.91 to hold and wave (v) to continue for most of next week.
Thanks you all again for hanging in there with me this week.
As I mentioned earlier,
I will be back to normal service on Thursday.
So I pray the Lord will keep you safe and sound until then.
God’s Blessings to you.
Bon chance me amis!
enda.