Hi there everyone.
I begin tonight with this story which I think encapsulates the whole story of the stockmarket right now.
Tesla’s market cap ($287bn) has grown to over a third of the combined market cap of the US, EU and Japanese auto indices
After I stopped laughing about this situation, the only thought I had was ‘this is LUNACY’.
And then we have the current positioning in the market.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD is starting to lose its mojo this evening!
The price has comer to a halt at the wave [iii] high.
And now we have a sharp step lower this evening off a lower high.
This action is viewed as a correction in wave (iv) so far.
The move is in three waves off the wave (iii) high.
And the pattern seems to be taking the form of a 3,3,5 flat correction.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (iv) to finish above 1.1345.
And then we should see rally back above 1.1494 to complete the whole run higher in wave ‘C’.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
I find it interesting that we have a price range contraction underway off the recent high.
Usually I would jump straight at the triangle scenario here in wave (b),
And that may be the case,
but the rapid move off todays high again does suggest that wave (c) down has already begun.
If we see a break of 1.2518,
that should rule out the triangle idea for wave (b).
A break below 1.2480 again will signal wave (c) is underway.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) down to be confirmed with a break of 1.2480.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
The price is fast approaching the wave ‘i’ high at 107.42 again today.
This action keeps the focus on the main wave count
and allows for wave wave ‘iii’ of (i) to push up towards 108.17 again.
If we break above that high then we are looking good for wave (i) to hit the upper trend line at 108.76.
Tomorrow;
106.63 must hold.
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (i) to continue higher.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
Todays trade looks corrective in nature so far.
If the price picks up momentum to the downside again tomorrow,
then we could be looking at a more interesting scenario building into wave [i] down next week.
We will know more tomorrow on that front.
The 4hr setup is screaming out for a sharper and more sustained decline.
we are again creating a lower high in both price and momentum.
with the MACD line now cresting below the 80 level and RSI turning down again.
Tomorrow;
watch for 27071 to hold again.
Only a break below the 26000 level again will be enough to really kick off the bearish count again.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
An interesting thing is happening in gold these days.
If we take a look at the 4hr chart tonight,
we can see that gold is now riding along the just above the lower trend channel line surrounding the whole of wave ‘5’ up.
This action is not exactly what you might expect from a top in wave ‘5’ of a larger third wave.
In fact,
it is exactly the opposite of what you might expect to see!
A large degree third wave should really be characterised by accelerating prices and extreme momentum readings.
Where as all we really have is a gradual grind higher and lacklustre momentum!
It does beg the question, where is the euphoria?
I would usually expect wave (3) to complete up above the upper trend channel line.
This would give us a target in the region of 1950 to complete this wave.
So at this point the wave count may need a rethink!
Especially if we get another impulsive burst higher soon.
Tomorrow;
1789 should hold at the wave (iv) low.
Wave ‘iii’ of (v) must begin to push back above 1817 again.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude has refused to rally above 41.47 again to confirm wave (v),
and it has so far refused to break a new low to signal the top is in.
We are in crude oil purgatory right now!
Despite all the hullabaloo and whipsaw action,
the price has not made any progress at all since the 8th of June high.
It seems like some limit has been hit in this trend.
So I can only prepare for a counter move against this trend to begin now.
Tomorrow;
I am allowing for wave (v) of [v] to make another move up to complete tomorrow.
And then it will be all eyes on the 39.00 handle again
to see if we can signal the beginning of wave [i] down.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The action over the last few hours has been dead flat.
The overall pattern off yesterdays high is in three waves,
so this does suggest a small correction is underway now.
Maybe we get another pop up to the trend line before any move lower begins.
As you can tell,
I am just waiting for something to work with here!
And the market is holding out on me as it has been for months now!
Tomorrow;
Watch for any weakness off the upper trend line again to begin wave (i) of [i] down.
3115 remains the first level to watch for a signal that wave [i] down has begun.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
The price broke out last night at a new high for the week.
I was viewing the action this week as an expanded flat correction,
but now I have relabelled the previous rally
and the recent high now takes the wave (iii) label.
With wave (iv) now beginning off that high.
Wave (iv) can take so many differing forms that it is impossible to predict.
Wave (ii) completed as a running flat,
so at least we can expected wave (iv) will not do the same.
And the low of wave (iv) must complete above the wave (i) high at 18.07.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iv) to continue for the next few days at least.
initial support lies at 18.86.
So wave ‘a’ of (iv) should complete at that level.