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Good evening folks.

This one is a doosey!

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EURUSD.

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EURUSD 1hr.

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EURUSD is now leaning in favor of the alternate count for wave (C).
And with that I wanted to concentrate a little more on that count this evening.

If wave [c] of (C) is now completing as shown.
Then we can expect a five wave rally into 1.1490 again to complete three waves up in wave (C) of a triangle wave [B].
This is best viewed on the daily chart.

Wave (v) of [c] of (C) will trace out a five wave move up into that target area.
And that suggests wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ of (v) are onw complete at Fridays highs.

Tomorrow;
If the price moves higher again to break 1.1420,
that will confirm this new count.

Wave ‘iii’ of (v) will break that level at a minimum.

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GBPUSD

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GBPUSD 1hr.

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Cable is still holding below Fridays high at 1.2668.
The short term pattern has now made any impulsive move to the downside yet.
Although if we see a drop back below 1.2438 again,
that will confirm wave (D) is underway.

In the short term both counts are calling for more downside,
but the alternate count is a little more bearish with a new long term trend decline to begin out of the end of wave (E) of (4).
And wave (5) left to pull GBPUSD back below 1.1300 at a minimum.
The potential for a long extended decline into parity is very mush a possibility.
But back to the short term.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [c] of ‘D’ to continue lower for the next few days with the initial target at 1.2250 to complete wave ‘D’.

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USDJPY.

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USDJPY 1hr.

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I am going to focus on the alternate count for USDJPY again tonight.

This count views the recent three wave move lower off 108.17 as a correction in wave [ii] green.
Wave (c) of [ii] completed at todays lows.

And now wave (i) of [iii] is getting going with todays move back above 107.24 at the wave (a) low.

Tomorrow;
If the price rallies back above 107.78 at the wave (b) high,
that will heavily favor this new count.

A break below 106.07 again will tip the balance back in favor of the larger wave (E) count.

This pair is on the verge of a much larger move higher over the coming months,
and right now we are just deciding how this larger triangle wave [B].
Once that is done,
we should move higher in a sustained trend.

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DOW JONES.

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DOW 1hr.

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The market finally decided to break the wave [a] high today.
This has taken a month to achieve,
and in the meantime all we have down is grind sideways completely range bound,
with a series of overlapping rallies and declines.

In the end the market has traced out a possible triple combination wave ‘2’.
With three waves of ‘3’ completing the correction at todays highs.
Wave [c] also filled a trend channel before falling again.

The high of wave [c] today reached above wave [a] by a whole 28 points.
And already this evening the price has fallen by over 350 points off that wave [c] high.

This sure looks like a complete rejection at that double top.
And this new decline has the potential to extend back below 25000 again in wave [i] of ‘3’.

Tomorrow;
25400 marks the low of wave (b).
Watch for a break of this low at a minimum in wave [i] down.
Although wave [i] does have the potential to carry back below 24500 at the wave ‘1’ low.

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GOLD

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GOLD 1hr.

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Gold is correcting off the high of the session in three waves this evening.
The price did break back above the 1810 level this afternoon before this decline began.
So right now we are looking at a new rally phase now beginning,
with a small higher low in place.

If the current short term count is correct,
then we have now completed wave (iv) blue at 1793,
and wave (v) blue is underway with a target at the upper trend channel line of about 1845.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iii’ of (v) to continue higher over the coming week.
Wave ‘iii’ of (v) should break above 1817 to confirm the count.

A break of 1793 again will trigger the alternate count.

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CRUDE OIL.

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CRUDE OIL 1hr.

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So far todays decline off the high at 40.82 is in three waves,
so it is viewed as corrective within the larger wave [v] up.
In this scenario wave (iii) of [v] will push above 41.50 again.
And the larger wave [v] will complete in the area of 43.00.

There is also that ever present alternate count which class the recent high as the top of the range for wave ‘C’ of (4).
And in that case we are already declining into wave (5).

It is too early to look too seriously at that alternate count,
but if the market keeps dropping and takes out 38.00 again at the wave [iv] low,
then we can consider that alternate.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave [v] to hold above 38.70 at the wave [iv] low.

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S&P 500.

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S&P 500 1hr

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The S&P did move above the June high by a whopping 3 points today.
and that has ruled out the 1,2 scenario that I was working on.

However,
The market has been struck by lightening this evening,
and has completely rejected the new high by falling 80 points into the close this evening.
And this has again opened up the possibility that wave (B) is complete at todays high.
I will have to wait and see how this new decline plays out over the coming days tough.

I have been looking at the market action over the last few months.
And given this evenings dramatic decline,
I think it is reasonable to view the rally off the June lows as an ending diagonal wave [v] of ‘C’.

And this count should lead to a decline in wave ‘1’ again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for this drop to break back below the 3115 low at wave (iv) to tilt the balance in favor of the downside again.
2995 marks the next interesting low at wave (ii).

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SILVER.

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SILVER 1hr

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Silver rallied into the high at 19.37 today.
This high has completed a five wave rally in wave (iii) blue.
The decline this evening is now viewed as the beginning of wave (iv) blue.

The decline in wave (iv) should trace out three waves and complete above 18.07 at the wave (i) high.
There is a significant amount of support at the 18.40 level though.
So I would like to see wave (iv) complete above that level ideally.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave (iv) to trace out three wave correction lower over the next few days.

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