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Good evening folks,

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EURUSD.

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EURUSD 1hr.

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The rally in EURUSD today has again taken another bite out of the main wave count.
The possibility still remains that this is a large complex correction in wave (ii).
But the price must return lower tomorrow with a large impulsive move in wave (iii) in order to stay with this interpretation.

Tomorrow;
If we see a break of 1.1423 tomorrow.
That will trigger the alternate count which I wrote about recently.
A break of 1.1168 will confirm the main count.

So I think tomorrow is a make or break day for this pair.

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GBPUSD

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GBPUSD 1hr.

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Cable has rallied too far in wave [b] to continue with the previous wave count.

I have switched this evening to a leading diagonal down in wave [a],
Followed by a zigzag higher in wave [b].
And this is still expected to be followed by a further decline in wave [c] below 1.2250 again,
to complete the larger wave ‘D’ of the triangle.

Tomorrow;
Wave (c) of [b] seems to have completed an ending diagonal at todays highs.
The price is now approaching the previous wave (ii) lower high.
And this should act as resistance to repel the price lower into wave [c].

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USDJPY.

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USDJPY 1hr.

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USDJPY is still refusing to give up the plan for the next move.
The price fell slightly today,
but this move has not confirmed the main wave count or ruled out the alternate.

Tomorrow;
If the price holds below 107.33 at the wave (i) low,
that will strengthen the main count and we can expect wave (iii) down to continue towards 106.07.

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DOW JONES.

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DOW 1hr.

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There is a chance that we have another small impulse wave to the downside complete this evening
labelled waves (i) and (ii) of [i].

The price has formed a three wave pattern sideways today labelled wave (ii) grey.
This action is corrective in nature and should be followed by a further decline in wave (iii) beginning tomorrow.
The price must hold below 26297 cash at the wave ‘2’ high.
And if the price falls below the 25500 level again that will signal wave (iii) of [i] is underway.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold below the recent high.

Wave ‘2’ is labelled as a running flat correction so far.
IF the high at wave ‘2’ breaks,
it simply means that we are shifting to a move conventional flat pattern for wave ‘2’.

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GOLD

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GOLD 1hr.

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Gold reached a high at 1817 today and made a run for the upper trend channel line again.
Although it may be true that wave ‘v’ of (iii) is now complete,
I still favor a little move upside to complete a clear five wave pattern in wave ‘v’ pink.
I think todays rally is part of an extension higher within wave ‘v’.
So a small correction here,
followed by a further rally up to the target at 1824 will complete wave ‘v’ of (iii).

Tomorrow;
I am not ruling out a fall into wave (iv) beginning now,
but merely allowing for a more complete pattern in wave (iii).

Watch for wave ‘v’ to correct and then rally again into the target at 1824.
A break below 1790 again will signal wave (iv) has begun.

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CRUDE OIL.

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CRUDE OIL 1hr.

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Crude is refusing to top out in wave [ii] just yet.
The action remains very corrective in nature into todays highs.
And because of this I am still leaning in favor of the downside in wave [iii].
If we see a break of 41.47 again,
that will serve to postpone the larger wave (5) for a while,
but not for too long I suspect.

Tomorrow;
the main wave count calls for wave [iii] to begin immediately.
Any break below 39.00 again will be confirmation that wave [iii] down has begun.

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S&P 500.

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S&P 500 1hr

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The pattern in the short term chart is a little unclear over the last few days.
The price action today does look like an upside correction in three waves.
But I will need to see a sharp move lower tomorrow to confirm that.

It is possible to label the move off the wave ‘2’ high as a leading diagonal wave (i),
and todays action as a flat correction wave (ii).
This would suggest wave (iii) down is yet to come.

IF we see a drop back below 3100 again that should confirm wave (iii) is underway.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold below 3184 at wave ‘2’ and then reverse lower into wave (iii) down.

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SILVER.

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SILVER 1hr

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Silver is looking much more like a market that is moving into an acceleration phase to the upside now after todays trade.
The price rallied back into the upper trend channel line again today and reached a high at 18.76.
Wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is expected to move higher again over the coming days.
But this is a good start for sure.

If this is wave ‘iii’ of (iii) now in play,
then we should see a push above 19.00 in short order.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the high at 18.43 to hold as the price develops in this wave (iii).
If that level breaks,
That will cast some doubt over the short term bullish interpretation.

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