Good evening folks,
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
It’s time to take the alternate EURUSD count seriously!
I have waited for long enough for a third wave down to appear in this pair,
but all that has happened is the price has chugged along sideways for a month.
I have shown the alternate triangle on all charts tonight.
The current move higher can be viewed as wave [c] of (C).
And the sideways grind over the last while can be labelled wave (iv) of [c] of (C).
If the price breaks above 1.1493,
that will trigger the alternate count
and then we can expect wave (v) of [c] to complete up around the 1.1550 area,
and fall again to begin wave (D) of the larger triangle.
Tomorrow;
If the price breaks above the 1.1350 level it will favor the alternate count.
As for the main wave count,
a sharp move below 1.1200 again will keep us on track for wave (iii) down.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable broke above the 1.2541 target today to complete a five wave move in wave (c) of [b].
The price reached 1.2594 at the top
and is moving lower again this evening off that high.
If wave (c) and wave [b] are complete at todays highs,
that should lead to a return lower in wave [c] over the coming days.
Wave [c] should trace out a five wave decline and hit the lower trend line at about the 1.2100 handle again.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [c] to begin with a drop back below 1.2438, the lowest point within wave ‘iv’.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
107.24 marks the lowest point of the trading range today.
The market then rose off that low in quite an impulsive manner into this evenings highs.
This action has caused me to pause and look again at the alternate for wave (E) of the triangle which is circled in red.
This low comes in at 106.07.
At this point we have a five wave rally in place off that low,
and now a three wave decline into the session lows today.
This price action can be viewed as an bullish impulse wave,
shown as waves [i] and [ii] in green.
If the price pushes back above 108.17 again,
that will favor the bullish alternate count.
Tomorrow;
If we do not see a rapid drop into wave [c],
then the alternate rises in favor.
So the price must fall into wave [c] tomorrow.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW is failing so far to breach the top of wave [a] at 26611.
Of course this can be achieved in the blink of an eye these days
with the level of hysteria that we are living through!
But I do find it interesting that the bullish bid has evaporated just below resistance now.
If the price continues lower tomorrow and breaks the wave (iv) lows at 25568,
that will add some weight to the idea that wave ‘2’ is already complete as a running flat.
And the long awaited wave ‘3’ down is finally coming our way!
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) of [i] to push down through 25568 at the previous wave (iv) low.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold has burst back into life again today with a break above 1788 again.
This puts the rally in wave ‘v’ of (iii) right back front and centre again.
The main target that I have been working with is the 162% extension of wave (i).
This will put wave (iii) up at 1824.
And we should get a nice tag of the upper trend line at that point also.
If this happens I will be happy to call for a correction to begin in wave (iv) as shown.
But all going well,
we should continue higher in wave ‘v’ of (iii) for the rest of the week.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ to push on up in a five wave pattern.
It looks like the internal third wave within wave ‘v’ is now creating an extension.
1787 should now hold as wave ‘v’ develops.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
The short term pattern in crude is not ideal – I will concede that much!
But the bearish count has some elements in its favor again.
Crude oil is obviously overbought now at these highs.
The 4hr momentum indicators are solidly negative,
with a major bearish divergence in place for a while now.
The climb higher over the last few days has been structurally weak
with way too many internal overlaps to count as anything but corrective.
I know the decline has been holding out for now,
but all of the peripheral information is pointing down now.
The price will follow eventually.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) of [iii] to begin with a break back into the 38.00 handle again.
I am looking for a five wave decline in wave (i) to be in place by the end of the week.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P is moving back lower this evening with some better internal action that we have seen of late.
The price has created a small lower high off the wave ‘2’ top now.
And I have labelled this as a small wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ in pink.
This evenings more sustained drop ca be viewed as wave ‘iii’ of (i).
All this points to the idea that we are building a lower degree bearish impulsive wave to the downside again.
I would like to see wave (i) down break below the wave (iv) low at 3115 ata minimum.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to continue lower into that initial support at 3115.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is pushing higher after another drop to a higher low early today.
The price is still holding within the rising trend channel for now.
So the bullish outlook has not changed as long as this channel remains intact.
If this is wave ‘iii’ of (iii) now beginning,
then we will accelerate higher over the coming days and rally above the 19.00 handle again with ease.
Tomorrow;
Watch for price to hold above 18.00 as wave ‘iii’ up begins.