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hi everyone.

Stocks and crude oil and currencies seems to be doing just fine these days,

the skies are blue and my what a lovely safe and perfectly normal world we live in.

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EURUSD.

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EURUSD 1hr.

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Another day, another sideways grind in the trading range.
This market is saving up for a sharp move one way or another,
and my gut instinct is still staring down into wave ‘iii’ of (iii).

Wave ‘ii’ made a new low initially,
and then the price pushed up towards the upper channel line this afternoon in what should be a final minor ‘c’ wave to complete wave ‘ii’ pink.
If wave ‘ii’ is now an expanded flat,
the pattern should complete with a break of 1.1287 again.
And then wave ‘iii’ will be ready to go.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete again.
A drop back below 1.1184 will signal wave ‘iii’ has begun.

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GBPUSD

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GBPUSD 1hr.

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Cable continues to confound after another spike to the upside again today.

I am now back with the original pattern again and looking for a larger wave [b] to complete three a three wave correction.

Wave (c) of [b] could complete a running flat at this evenings highs,
and then turn lower into wave [c].
A break of 1.2541 will complete an expanded flat,
either way I think we go down into wave [c] towards the 1.2100 level.

Tomorrow;
Watch for this final wave (c) of [b] to top out and then turn back down into wave [c].
The initial target for wave [c] lies at 1.2252 again.

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USDJPY.

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USDJPY 1hr.

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After making it to within a few pips of the 50% retracement level of wave [a],
USDJPY finally completed the long suffering wave [b] at 108.17 last night.

The move off the high is modest so far,
but I suspect this drop is only wave (i) of [c] still developing.
Wave (ii) should create the lower high below 108.17
And then I expect wave (iii) of [c] to do most of the work in getting us back down to the lows at 106.07.

Tomorrow;
106.07 marks the minimum target for wave [c].
But the lower target at about 105.00 is still very likely.

Watch for wave (ii) to hold below 108.17.

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DOW JONES.

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DOW 1hr.

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I have to admit,
the pattern in operation off the high labelled wave ‘2’ blue is very unorthodox indeed.
And it may well be that wave ‘2’ will simplify and create that larger pattern as per the alternate count.

There is small matter of terrible internal action within the market,
stratospheric optimism,
and the glaring bearish wave setup that keeps me hunkered down in the bearish wave count in the short term.
This market could break big at any second.
And I think that possibility is worth planning for.

Tomorrow;
I have updated the short term count now to show a larger degree pattern off the high.
And now an expanded flat wave (ii) into the session highs today.

A decline into wave (iii) needs to begin this week.
So I am watching for weakness tomorrow.
Any drop below the 25000 level again should be enough to signal wave (iii) has begun.

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GOLD

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GOLD 1hr.

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Gold took a beating in the premarket today,
and that sharp move lower has dented the otherwise well functioning wave pattern in wave [v].

I am again drawn to the three wave move to a new high earlier in the week,
This can be viewed as an internal ‘b’ wave high,
within a running flat wave ‘iv’ pink.
Today spike lower completed wave ‘c’ of that pattern.

If this running flat is correct,
then wave ‘v’ is now underway, starting with the rebound this evening.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (iii) to continue higher into the end of the week.
1732 is key support within wave (iii).
Any break of that level will force a rethink of the short term pattern.

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CRUDE OIL.

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CRUDE OIL 1hr.

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Wave [ii] does not want to let go of the price just yet.
The action was again very choppy with a small rally into the 78.6% retracement level very early this morning,
and then another dump back below the 40 handle again.
The action to the downside today is still very impulsive looking.
And that favors the bearish outlook in the short term count.

I need to see some follow through on the downside now to confirm the move into wave [iii],
but the general setup favors the bearish count for sure.

Tomorrow;
the internal wave (b) of [ii] lies at 37.56.
If we break that level it will be confirmation that wave [iii] has begun.
Watch for more impulsive downside action to begin wave [iii] tomorrow.

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S&P 500.

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S&P 500 1hr

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With each step higher we are pushing the wave count towards the alternate for wave ‘2’.
That pattern will be triggered with a break of 3155 cash.

For the moment I am sticking with the idea of a series of 1,2 patterns off the high.
The market is now topping in wave (ii) of [iii].
Where wave (ii) is tracing out an expanded flat correction higher.

The market can always get more feverish and reach that alternate wave ‘2’ count with a speculative blow out in the coming days.
But I would question who is left to buy now?
We will see.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) to begin off this high.
Any significant sharp move lower now should signal that wave (iii) has begun.

3155 must hold.

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SILVER.

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SILVER 1hr

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The recent high at 18.37 is proving a difficult nut to crack right now.
The price took a hit after just cracking above that level This afternoon.

I do have to take this action seriously as it was not just a casual corrective decline.
It was like a complete refusal of that high.
So there is still a chance that we are looking at the larger wave ‘2’ scenario circled in red.

The main count will still allow for a rally into wave (iii) to begin soon.

Wave (ii) can be viewed as a running flat pattern.
And then wave ‘i’ of (iii) created a five wave pattern higher off that low at 17.48.
Wave ‘ii’ neds to find a low now,
and the rally into wave (iii) must begin.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to push higher and final break above 18.37 in a significant manner.
17.48 must now hold.

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