Good evening y’all!
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
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EURUSD daily.
EURUSD is stuck in such a tight range now that I just can’t see wave ‘iii’ down in place yet.
The price has been wandering sideways between 1.1190 and 1.1240 for two strait days now.
This action suggest that wave ‘ii’ is still in force.
and we will have to wait until early next week for wave ‘iii’ down to come in.
Monday;
wave ‘ii’ should top out with a break of 1.1240 and complete a small flat correction.
the next time we break below 1.1168,
wave ‘iii’ will be confirmed.
GBPUSD
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GBPUSD daily.
Cable fell again today which goes against the short term count,
but the action off the top does read as a three wave decline.
Of course this decline can fit with the alternate count for wave [c],
but I have not switched over to that view yet.
I do think we still need to create a larger three wave correction in wave [b] as shown,
before we fall again into wave [c].
Monday;
Watch for rebound back above 1.2463 again to signal wave (c) is underway.
If we get further selling into the lower trend channel,
that will trigger the alternate count for wave [c].
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
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USDJPY daily.
Wave (c) continues to track higher today and has postponed the decline into wave [c] for today at least.
The price fell overnight and created a three wave pattern.
I have labelled this drop as wave ‘iv’ of (c).
And the rally off that wave ‘iv’ low at 106.79 is now viewed as wave ‘v’.
Wave (c) can complete with a failed fifth wave,
and if we see a rapid move lower on Monday that will favor that idea.
Monday;
Watch for wave (c) to complete the correction in wave [b] at 107.63
and then wave [c] should reverse lower again.
DOW JONES.
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DOW daily.
Well the market is lower again today and so far the price is holding at the lows of the week.
Todays spike lower is a good start to wave ‘iii’,
but we do need more downside in wave (iii) to really give the bearish outlook a boost.
There are a few main positive take-away’s from this weeks action;
1- the market is building a series of lower highs.
2- the downside moves all come in the form of a sharp impulsive looking spikes
3- the upside action is all quite corrective in nature.
All these points favor the bearish outlook.
The alternate count is declining in probability this evening with another step lower in place.
But I cant rule this count out until we get a serious acceleration lower into wave (iii).
Monday;
The price is holding above 25000 as we role into the close this evening.
That level is becoming a psychological line in the sand now.
And I am looking for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to cut down through that level soon.
The larger wave [i] should be confirmed next week once we fall back below the 24500 level again.
GOLD
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Gold took a hit early in the session which ruled out the triangle pattern in wave ‘iv’.
This action has not ruled out the corrective pattern in wave ‘iv’ though.
The pattern merely evolved into a complex correction
with a triangle as the internal ‘b’ wave.
The price touched the lower trend channel line at 1747 this afternoon,
and then rallied strongly off that level.
this is interesting also because the previous wave (i) high lies at 1745.
I am taking this as an affirmation of the continued bullish stance.
Monday;
Wave ‘v’ needs to push ahead now and break initial resistance at 1779 at a minimum.
I favor wave ‘v’ of (iii) making it up to 1810 or so before we can call wave (iii) complete.
Wave (iii) will reach the 162% extension of wave (i) at 1823.
CRUDE OIL.
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Wave [ii] is working through its internal pattern as per the plan so far today!
The high of wave (a) hit the 50% retracement level overnight.
And off that high I am tracking a three wave pattern lower in wave (b).
Wave (b) will complete a higher low above 37.18 again by Monday evening.
And if that happens,
I will be looking for a further rally in wave (c) of [ii] to complete the correction by Wednesday at the latest.
If this pattern is correct,
then we are setting up nicely for another significant selloff in wave [iii] by the end of the week.
Monday;
Watch for wave (b) to complete this three wave decline above 37.11.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
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S&P 500 daily.
The S&P dropped sharply today in line with a possible wave ‘iii’ pink now underway.
The market has halted the declines at the previous lows this evening.
This does not rule out a wave ‘iii’ acceleration lower,
but it does open up the possibility
that wave ‘ii’ could trace out a larger three wave pattern,
this idea now becomes the main alternate count.
And even if this is the correct interpretation,
it does leave the door open for a large down-draft into wave ‘iii’ of (iii) later next week.
Monday;
At the moment,
it is worth considering the potential for a sharp move lower into wave ‘iii’ on Monday.
I expect wave ‘iii’ to reach the lower support at 2936.
the 162% extension of wave ‘i’ gives us a target for wave ‘iii’ closer to 2880.
The alternate wave ‘ii’ should top out just above the recent high at 3093 again.
SILVER.
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SILVER daily.
Silver was hit again today with a sharp drop off yesterdays recovery high.
But that decline was short lived,
as we see that the price has again rebounded back this evening.
I was musing t=in the video earlier that wave (ii) may have been developing into a larger pattern,
but that spike higher has likely ruled out that idea now.
If wave ‘i’ of (iii) is now underway as I suspect,
then we will see a further rally on Monday to take out the high at 18.37.
Monday;
Watch for a clear five wave pattern to develop over the coming days to complete wave ‘i’ of (iii).
Wave ‘ii’ of (iii) will correct again by the middle of next week.
But this next phase of the rally in wave (iii) blue,
will push silver back above the $20 handle again as it accelerates higher.
Shalom to all this weekend,
I pray you have an enjoyable weekend where ever you are on God’s good earth!
Until Monday,
enda.