Here we are on Friday night with nothing to do other than look at the market action of the day!
I remember when I would be suited and booted by now and heading out on the town!
But the one constant in life is that things always change!
So here we are sliding into this depression with our eyes closed and our hands tied behind our backs.
There is a measure of fear in people that I have never before seen.
Even during the great recession,
we still had upbeat hearts,
but now,
we got a virus and the fear factor has been programmed into us.
It is sad to see.
No matter what comes,
Lord let me never fear the future!
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD continues to step lower day by day.
The wave count is calling for an acceleration lower much like in GBPUSD,
but that has not happened yet at least.
I have shown a leading diagonal as wave ‘i’ of three this evening.
The move higher off that low was in three waves,
that takes the wave ‘ii’ label.
And today we saw another spike to the downside.
If this interpretation is correct,
then wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is now underway.
And the price should continue lower for the next few days as wave (iii) traces out a five wave drop.
Monday;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold at 1.1255.
Wave ‘iii’ down needs to push into the lower trend channel line at a minimum at about 1.1070.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable has indeed moved into the lower trend channel line again
and has just broke below the 1.2360 level suggested by the channel.
It seems that wave ‘iii’ of (c) has completed a five wave pattern now,
and we can expect some relief in wave ‘iv’ on Monday.
Wave ‘iv’ should hold below 1.2454 at the wave (a) low.
And then one last dip into wave ‘v’ to complete wave (c) by Tuesday evening at the latest.
We are nearing three waves down in wave [a] now.
So next week we will should see another three wave correction higher begin in wave [b].
Monday;
Watch for wave (c) of [a] to complete and then a reversal higher in wave [b] to begin.
Wave [b] should complete below 1.2686.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is the least active of the markets tonight.
The price has flat-lined throughout the day
and is holdig a slight higher low above the recent low at 106.56.
I have altered the wave count slightly this evening.
Instead of looking for a five wave decline into wave [c],
I have switched to a three wave pattern instead.
This changes only the classification of wave (E) to a combination wave.
nothing else changes.
Monday;
Watch for wave [b] to top out at about 107.70 and then turn lower into wave [c].
The target for wave [c] lies at about 104.50.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The early rise this morning filled the small trend channel shown on the hourly chart.
And once the market achieved that point,
we turned lower again with a nice sharp spike back below the 26000 level.
If the short term count is correct here,
then we are now beginning wave (iii) down and this should carry the price back towards the 25000 level again.
The high of the session registered 26451 at the top of the trend channel.
So that level now becomes the critical resistance for this wave (iii) decline.
That level must hold in order for this count to remain valid.
Monday;
If in fact we have turned lower into wave (C) now,
and if todays decline is part of wave [i] of ‘3’ of (C).
Then we have a lot more downside ahead of us in the short term.
24500 offers the most support in the short term.
So I expect wave [i] should find support there.
Watch for wave (iii) down to accelerate on Monday to get this next leg down underway.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is slowly gaining some upside traction today, finally!
The price is now sitting just underneath the 1745 level at wave (i) blue.
This level marks initial resistance for gold in the short term.
If we can push above that level with an impulsive move to the upside.
Then 1764 will be in sights.
And wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [v] should easily push above that point and continue higher.
A third of a third wave should generally accelerate,
and especially in gold!
So next week is looking like a pivotal week.
If wave (iii) accelerates higher, then we should leave behind this corrective grind once more.
Monday;
Watch for a break above 1745 at a minimum.
That level is expected to act as support as we move higher into wave (iii) of [v].
Watch for the low at 1717 to hold now as wave ‘iii’ develops.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
As frustrating as it is crude oil made a slight new high this evening,
and with that the short term count was invalidated.
so back to the drawing board for me!
The price made a new high by 16 points today,
and then rapidly fell 200 points off that high.
So we are still very much up against a psychological barrier now at the 40 handle.
In the video earlier,
I spoke about the gap created on March the 6th which is now filled at these highs.
This gap has attracted the price in the correction higher into this point.
But it should now repel the price as we begin wave (5) down.
And I will now have to wait for another five wave pattern to build to the downside in wave ‘1’ again.
Monday;
Watch for the highs at 40.60 to hold and wave [i] to head lower again.
Lets see if we can build a right shoulder next week in waves [i] and [ii].
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
I think we could have a running flat complete at todays early high.
The move sideways over the last few sessions is explained by this pattern quite well.
And now we have a nice spike lower off the highs in place this evening.
The price has not broken the lows of wave (i) at 3074 yet,
but wave (iii) down should achieve that soon.
Obviously we need to see a sharp move lower in wave [i] take hold next week.
Wave (iii) of [i] should drop into the 3000 level with ease,
and all going well,
the larger wave [i] will drop into the 2936 level in five waves by the end of next week.
Monday;
Watch for wave [i] down to gain control of the price action.
I am looking for another five waves down to build from this point.
A break of 3074 will signal wave (iii) down is underway.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is moving higher today and so far the action has been pretty impulsive looking.
I have moved up the wave count by one degree today,
this does not change the general outlook though.
The move off the wave (ii) low at 17.30 in now labelled as wave ‘i’ of (iii).
Wave (iii) is expected to extend higher next week and bring us back out above 18.37 again.
So far the price has traced out a three wave move off the low of wave ‘2’.
So this rally need to continue higher in five waves next week to rule out a larger wave ‘2’ scenario forming.
Monday;
Watch for wave (iii) up to continue higher.
Wave ‘iii’ of (iii) should carry out above 18.18.
The low at wave (ii) must hold at 17.30.
That is it for another week my friends.
We may be stepping out of the frying pan now,
so the fire is waiting!
May God’s Blessing shower upon you all.
Have a great weekend.
Shalom,
enda.