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Hi there everyone,

I hope you had Blessed weekend.

Welcome back to a new week, where we have some promising action to work with in both the metals and in stocks.

So lets get down to it shall we.

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EURUSD.

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EURUSD 1hr.

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We are getting a snap higher this evening after a mostly corrective trade earlier today.
So far this action fits with the idea of an impulsive decline off the highs at 1.1423.
I have labelled this rally as wave (ii) of [i] to the downside.
This is a corrective rally and as such is must complete a lower high below 1.1423 soon
and then return lower tomorrow into wave (iii).
Wave (iii) should accelerate lower and continue down towards the 1.1000 area over the next few sessions.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to complete a lower high and wave (iii) to begin.
A break below 1.1211 will signal wave (iii) is underway.

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GBPUSD

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GBPUSD 1hr.

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The count in cable is similar but different!

The count still shows a series of 1,2 waves to the downside,
with an acceleration into wave (iii) also expected soon.
If wave ‘ii’ of (iii) is completing now,
then we can expect wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to turn lower tomorrow.

The price should be moving down in wave ‘D’ of a triangle now.
And this is best viewed on the 4hr chart.
I have shown wave [a] of ‘D’ as a five wave pattern developing now,
but wave [a] can also trace out a three wave move lower.
We will see soon enough which pattern wave ‘D will take.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘ii’ pink to hold below 1.2652
and then reverse lower tomorrow into wave ‘iii’ of (iii).

A break of 1.2454 will signal wave (iii) is underway.

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USDJPY.

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USDJPY 1hr.

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The overnight session traded sideways and that action continued today.
I have shown this move as wave (b) of [ii],
with wave (c) of [ii] left to complete a three wave correction higher.

Wave (b) is labelled as complete at the early lows today,
but it is also possible that wave (b) will develop into a larger pattern,
such as a triangle or a larger flat.
So just keep and eye on that tomorrow.

Tomorrow;
A break above 107.60 again will signal wave (c) is in force.
108.20 marks the 50% retracement of wave [i],
That level marks the initial target for wave [ii] to complete.

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DOW JONES.

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DOW 1hr.

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Well the futures were lower this morning and that pushed the DOW down below the 25000 level again.
That drop completed five waves down off the high
and that marks the low of wave [i] now.

The inevitable bounce in a second wave came in today at the open.
The pattern off the lows of wave [i] can be viewed as a three wave rally higher.
So you could view that as a completed wave [ii].

I have allowed for a larger pattern to develop in wave [ii] as shown,
because it is possible that this whole move off the high is actually moving at one degree higher.
And I would expect wave ‘2’ blue to take more time to develop.

And this is the view of the alternate count which is shown circled in red.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a three wave decline in wave (b) of [ii].
This should complete a higher low in the area of 24200 again.

Wave (c) of [ii] will follow and push up towards 26000 again.

If this count is correct,
then we will see the end of the raly hype this week.
Wave [iii] down should smash the illusion that all is well in the market.

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GOLD

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GOLD 1hr.

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I did hope that wave (i) blue would push above 1764 again before completing,
but alas that was not to be.

The price fell in three waves overall off the wave (i) high.
And wave ‘c’ of (ii) fell sharply today to hit 1704 at the low of the session.

Off that low we got a nice impulsive looking bounce higher.
I have labelled this as the beginning of wave ‘i’ of (iii) up.
Wave ‘i’ of (iii) should continue higher over the next few days,
and break above 1745 again to signal that the larger wave (iii) has begun.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘i’ to trace out a five wave rally higher and break 1743 again.
17.04 must hold for this short term count to remain valid.

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CRUDE OIL.

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CRUDE OIL 1hr.

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Crude has retraced 50% of the recent decline at todays highs.
This action does satisfy what you might expect from a second wave retracement,
but I am not sure that wave ‘2’ is done yet.

I have allowed for a larger three wave correction to take place as shown,
and in this case, todays rally is only wave [a] of ‘2’.
And we can expect a further sideways move in waves [b] and [c] over the next few days.

I must hesitate though,
a sharp decline back below 34.00 again will signal wave ‘3’ has already begun.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘2’ to continue for the next few sessions,
wave [b] of ‘2’ should fall in three waves again tomorrow.

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S&P 500.

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S&P 500 1hr

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The early morning declines completed a five wave pattern off the highs.
So that action definitely favours the idea that we have turned down into wave (C) now.

There is a reasonable three wave pattern in place now into todays highs off that low also.
And the rally has retraced 50% of the decline in wave ‘1’.
This rally can be explained as wave [a] of ‘2’ for sure,

But the big question is this;
Is wave ‘2’ already complete at these highs?
And are we about to fall off a cliff into wave ‘3’ of (C).

There is only one way to find out though,
if the decline that follows this rally is impulsive,
and drops back below 3000 in short order,
that will favour the idea that wave ‘3’ down has begun.

Tomorrow;
Lets see if we get a corrective or impulsive decline off this evenings highs.
That will decide which wave count is more likely for wave ‘2’.

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SILVER.

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SILVER 1hr

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Silver has hit the target for wave ‘2’ at todays lows.
The price fell sharply today in wave [c],
filled the trend channel and made a low at 16.95 before turning higher again.

The spike off the low looks impulsive also.
So if wave ‘2’ is now done,
then we should see this rally off the low continue and wave (i) should push back above 18.00 again in five waves.

Tomorrow;
The low at 16.95 must now hold and wave (i) higher should continue.
If this count is correct,
then we should see new highs above 18.37 again possible by the end of this weeks trade.

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