Overbought extreme anyone?
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD is not ready to fall off the wave ‘2’ highs just yet.
The price pushed out over last weeks highs by asmall margin today.
And so the previous wave count was invalidated.
We now have a three wave decline into the lows at wave (iv).
and a rally off that low is in wave (v) of [c] of ‘2’.
Tomorrow;
The price must hold below 1.1492 now.
And we must see an impulsive decline begin soon.
Watch for a top to form again in wave (v),
and the initial decline into wave (i) down.
1.1240 is the initial level to watch from here.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable made it out to a new high in wave (v) of [c] today also.
The rally is now stalling just off the highs of the session.
We may still see a new high tomorrow to complete wave (v),
but I think it will be short lived.
After that final high in wave (v),
any decline back below the 1.2600 handle again will be the first indication that the top is in for wave ‘C’.
And then I will begin to concentrate on the next leg of the triangle,
that will be a three wave decline in wave ‘D’ of (4).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) to top out in the area of the upper trend channel line at about 1.2850 again.
there is a cluster of support in the area of the previous fourth wave.
A break of those level will signal the top is in for wave ‘C’.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
It is time to embrace the alternate count with open arms now.
USDJPY fell again today without much of an answer from the upside.
The move off the high is all but complete as a five wave decline.
This suggests wave ‘C’ is going to extend lower over the coming week
and create a larger five wave pattern as shown.
The minimum target for wave ‘C’ lies at 105.98.
This is the low of the previous wave ‘A’.
But if you look at the 4hr chart,
wave ‘C’ could make it down as far as 104.50,
this is where wave ‘C’ will hit the lower trend channel line again.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a correction in wave [ii] to begin.
Ideally wave [ii] should retrace back above 108.00 again in three waves.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
Its been a pretty interesting trade today,
the market is whipsawing around like a madman all day.
There is definitely a knock to the confidence,
and maybe some cracks are starting to appear in the bullish narrative.
The market opened lower and then rallied following the fed minutes,
the market is again selling off this evening and has wiped out any gains again.
It is early days yet to call the top in place,
but I am at least looking lower again which is a change from the last two weeks.
Tomorrow;
So far the price has created a three wave decline pattern off the high.
This can be interpreted as a correction lower,
but this evenings selloff is leaning towards the idea of a third wave beginning.
Watch for wave (iii) down to continue lower and accelerate into a third wave down.
I would like to see wave (iii) push down below 26500 again before any correction higher begins.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold has spiked higher this evening pushing back above 1730 again this evening.
This action does favor the idea that wave ‘iii’ of (i) is in force,
but ideally,
I am looking for a break above 1745 again to complete wave ‘iii’ of (i).
A break of that level will be the first confirming signal that wave [iv] is done and wave (i) has taken over.
Tomorrow;
Todays action was step in the right direction for the larger bullish count.
But I need to see more to be sure of the turn higher into wave [v] of ‘3’.
Watch for that initial resistance level at 1745 in wave (b) to break.
That will confirm wave (i).
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
It was a close call this evening for crude!
The price spiked higher but then retraced the move in quick succession.
The action has not invalidated the short term count yet though.
The price has traced out a three wave correction higher in wave (ii).
And we have a lower high now in place below 40.44 at the recent high.
It is now time for a decline in wave (iii) to begin.
If the price takes out the wave (i) low at 37.07 again,
that will signal wave (iii) is underway.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (iii) down to begin.
A break of the interim low at 37.73 cash will favor the idea that wave (iii) is underway.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P is not quite so willing to give up the rally today.
The action off the high has created a three wave decline so far.
But this can develop into a five wave decline very easily,
given how brittle and over-extended this rally has become.
The 4hr momentum indicators are again flashing warning signs.
With a turn lower from the extremes in RSI earlier this week,
now followed by MACD today.
Tomorrow;
The market has to shed the corrective look to the action by accelerating lower for the rest of the week.
If we see that action develop,
then we can build a scenario for an impulsive signal to the downside.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is again higher today which is a little surprising to be honest.
Overall I am a bull on the metals,
but I would like to see a larger correction complete in wave ‘2’ before considering wave ‘3’ underway.
The action to the upside is still best described as a three wave pattern in wave [b].
so I am looking for wave [b] to complete a lower high now,
and wave [c] to fall back towards the lower trend channel line to complete wave ‘2’ over the coming days.
The minimum target for wave [c] lies at 17.17 at the wave [a] low.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave [c] to take over tomorrow.
A break of 17.50 again will confirm wave [c] has begun.