Good night to you all, its late here, so lets get into it shall we.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD is rapidly approaching the overall price target for wave [c] now.
This is way ahead of time in terms of what I was expecting,
so I have updated the short term count to reflect this action.
Nothing major has changed,
only todays rally is wave (v) of [c] now,
rather than wave ‘v’ of (iii) of [c].
The main target for wave [c] was set at about 1.1300 with the minimum target at 1.1150.
We are right about in the middle now as I write.
So I think it is time to begin looking for a top in wave [c] of ‘2’.
And the start of a turn lower into wave ‘3’.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) to close out soon enough.
Any decline back below 1.1112 again will signal that the top for wave ‘2’ has completed.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
GBPUSD is faltering today after a good rally over the last few sessions.
The price is drawing to a close in wave (iii) of [c],
with wave ‘iv’ of (iii) likely underway now.
This does suggest one more rally in wave ‘v’ after a correction in wave ‘iv’ is complete.
Tomorrow;
wave ‘iv’ could be tracing out a flat correcting now,
so watch for that wave to complete tomorrow.
In this case we should see another drop tomorrow to complete a three wave correction.
I would like to see wave ‘iv’ hold above 1.2500.
The first support level below the price now lies at 1.2468.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is holding onto the recent rally quite well today.
The price may already have complete wave ‘iii’ and ‘iv’ with that choppy overnight trade last night.
In that case todays rally is wave ‘v’ of (iii) now underway.
I am looking for a break of the previous wave ‘B’ high at 109.39 in wave (iii),
That would take out another obstacle to the developing uptrend.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ to continue higher overnight and for a break above 109.39 to complete wave (iii).
A correction in wave (iv) should then begin off the high.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
On days like today I look like a complete fool!
Traders are jumping on the bandwagon today with reckless abandon.
And this has pushed the short term count out of bounds.
I have updated the wave count this evening to show a larger wave ‘A’ up off the March lows.
Then a simple three wave zigzag correction in wave ‘B’,
which caused some headaches for me in early may.
And now a five wave rally off that low in wave ‘C’ of (B).
In the bigger picture 4hr chart,
the price is now approaching the previous wave ‘B’ high and the 78.6% retracement level at the 27000 area.
This is a level of madness that I never expected the market to pull off in wave (B).
and that does lead me to think again,
maybe we are actually moving now at one degree higher than I previously thought?
If that is the case,
then the decline to come is going to be even greater still that I currently have accounted for.
This is going to take some thinking about over the next few days.
And I will dive into it in the weekend video in more depth I think.
Tomorrow;
In a strange twisted way,
the more inevitable that this rally becomes in the minds of the speculator,
the more likely that the bearish outcome I have outlined becomes!
Lets see if the vertical move can come to a halt tomorrow and we can get working on the downside again.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold has dropped back below the 1700 level again today in a counter move against the stock market!
The price action is following the three wave correction form quite well so far.
And todays low did hit the minimum target level at 1693 at the lows.
There is a small bounce underway now, I am labeling this as wave ‘iv’ of (c).
Wave ‘iv’ should trace out a small three wave correction higher.
And then we should drop again in wave ‘v’ of (c).
Tomorrow;
1675 is the level where wave (c) will reach the lower trend channel line.
Watch for any bounce that might occur off that area.
I think we are very close to a good medium term buying opportunity now,
if the action proceeds like I have suggested.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude is beginning to look a little better now after a falling sharply off the highs early this morning.
the action throughout the day looks corrective to the upside.
And the market is falling again this evening off a lower high.
So we may be seeing the early hints of a top in place now for wave (4) again.
Tomorrow;
the job now is easy!
We need to see some follow through on the downside again and a clear five wave pattern in wave [i] as shown.
The critical level is still at the 30.00 handle,
if we can break the previous fourth wave with an impulsive decline,
then we are on for a larger decline in wave (5).
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
Well we did it folks,
we managed to reach the 78.6% retracement level of the previous decline in wave (A).
This level also marks exactly, the wave ‘2’ high within wave (A) as shown on the 4hr chart.
And again we sit at a point where a serious reversal can take place.
But after a rally like todays,
it is hard to believe how the market can ever turn lower at all eh?
On the short term count I am looking at a larger version of the ending diagonal pattern in wave [v] green.
This involves a five wave move into todays highs tracing out a wedge type pattern overall.
Wave (i) is the longest.
Wave (iii) is not the shortest.
each internal wave is broken down into a three wave pattern.
The preceding move has gone too far way too fast!
But,
the only glitch is that wave (i) and (iv) have not overlapped.
An ending diagonal is a terminal pattern either in a fifth wave of an impulse,
or wave ‘C’ of a correction – and we are in wave ‘C’ of a correction!
Tomorrow;
The price has already hit the upper trend line of the diagonal.
And we are right below the wave ‘2’ high at 3138.
I am as certain now as I have ever been that the next move down will be violent and surprising.
So wave [i] is what I am waiting for.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
After consolidating yesterday the price took another hit today,
and it looks like that was enough to tilt the wave count in favor of the idea that wave ‘1’ is now complete.
I wanted to see wave ‘1’ break above the 18.93 level to confirm a long term uptrend,
but we will have to wait a little longer for that now.
If wave ‘2’ is now underway,
then I will be looking for more downside over the coming week,
with the initial target at about 16.69 for wave [a] of ‘2’.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a three wave decline to develop in wave [a].
Wave (b) should create a lower high before falling in wave (c) again.