Hi there all.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD has completed five waves up in wave (iii) today,
after a thrust higher our of that triangle we were looking at last night.
The pattern completed at todays highs at 1.1195.
I did expect a little more upside in wave (iii) to be honest,
but the minimum target has been broken by 45 pips now,
and a clear five wave pattern seems complete,
so I think it is worth looking for a consolidation now in wave (iv) as shown.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iv) to begin a three wave correction.
The initial target lies at 1.1114 where the previous fourth wave sits.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable continued the rally today to really affirm the validity of the new wave count.
The price rallied in wave ‘iii’ of (iii),
and reached up above the 162% extension of wave ‘i’ at 1.2540.
The high of the session hit 1.2573 and then cooled off again.
The price should now correct in wave ‘iv’ pink over the next day or two.
Then we should see the rally resume again in wave ‘v’ of (iii).
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iii’ to complete and then correct in wave ‘iv’.
The low of wave ‘iv’ must hold above 1.2363.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
It is interesting to see all three pairs rally today!
The lower high at 107.38 of wave (ii) held over night and then wave ‘iii’ began to rise out of that level overnight.
The price went vertical today and easily broke above the initial target level at 108.09.
The pattern in wave ‘iii’ does not look like a complete five wave structure just yet.
So I am looking for a little more upside over night to complete that wave ‘iii’ rally.
Then we will likely see a correction in wave ‘iv’ begin tomorrow.
The next major resistance lies at 108.09,
and that is the level I have suggested for the larger wave (iii) to complete.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iii’ to complete with a push towards 109.00.
Wave ‘iv’ must not break back below 108.09 again.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
I know that it is a real close call now,
but I am going to hang onto the idea of a (i), (ii) decline now complete at todays highs.
The price is holding below the recent cash high at 25758 as I write.
But there is only 150 points in it right now.
And we still have the damn after market to navigate.
So I am on the edge of my seat here!
The price must make a real concerted effort to decline in an impulsive manner tomorrow.
Wave (iii) can only be confirmed if we break back below 25031 cash.
So tomorrow action is critical in terms of getting wave [i] underway.
There is one overarching reason apart from the wave count that keeps me resolutely in the bear camp now.
And that is,
all the major forward looking indicators that I pay attention to
are either equal too the extremes of February last,
or registering new etremes above those Feb highs.
So you could say that right now is even worse than February.
And that is saying a lot in terms of what to expect next!
Tomorrow;
25758 must hold and the price must turn back below 25031 again.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is moving back lower today after eking out a very small new high in wave (b) this afternoon.
The price spiked lower off 1745 this evening,
and this decline should begin wave (c) down.
Wave (c) should fall in five waves from here,
and hit the minimum target at 1693 at the wave ‘a’ high over the next few sessions.
wave (c) will be confirmed with a break of 1710 again.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (c) to continue lower for the rest of the week and break 1693 at a minimum.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
36.64 was hit today as the market rallies higher blissfully unaware of the crumbling ground underneath!
Wave (v) is now approaching a complete five wave pattern.
And we are now back trading in the price gap created on March 6th.
So we are all but done in wave (4) now.
The 4hr momentum indicators have been diverging bearishly for the last few weeks.
And daily momentum registered the most extreme MACD level in five years last month.
Much like the stock market,
this market is running higher on wishes and dreams of a resurrecting economy.
And that aint gonna happen my friends!
Tomorrow;
I am looking for wave [i] of ‘1’ of (5) to begin this week.
And a drop back below 31.00 again will signal that the top is in for wave (4) and wave (5) has begun.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P is crawling higher today and this action is much like the days leading up the February highs.
Each new high is getting harder and harder to reach as wave ‘C’ grinds to a halt across the board on the momentum side of things.
On the 4hr chart I have shown two levels that lie above us now which are within reach now.
We could call them stretch targets at this point,
but I am more inclined to say we drop from here rather than rally!
3137 marks the high of wave ‘2’ within wave (A) down.
And 3175 marks the level where wave ‘C’ reaches 162% of wave ‘A’.
I do not want to see these levels reached,
but that does not mean this madness can’t continue for another few days to hit these levels.
Tomorrow;
There is a possibility that wave (v) of [v] is tracing out an ending diagonal now.
That goes a long way to explaining the overlap in the structure last week.
I have adopted this interpretation as the main wave count now.
Watch for any decline back below 3000 again to call the top in place and wave (i) of [i] underway.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver dropped in a sharp move this afternoon but the recovery came in nicely this evening.
The short term count call for one more push higher in wave ‘v’ of (v) to complete wave ‘1’ this week.
So far the drop off Fridays highs looks corrective into 17.77,
that should complete wave ‘iv’ of (v).
I expect this evenings move higher to be the beginning of wave ‘v’ of (v).
And the final target level for wave (v) lies up at the 18.90 level.
A break above 19.00 again will be very positive in terms of the daily count.
As this action would confirm the longer term up trend that I expect.
Tomorrow;
Watch for 17.77 to hold and wave ‘v’ to continue higher.