Hi there and good evening.
Yes my friends peak social mood brings with it peak stupidity!
Another headline which really goes to show the quality of the ‘investment’ that is going on these days.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-investors-continue-pile-bankrupt-hertz
BTFD – even if the company is bankrupt!
Here is another article that shows the power that hold FANGS in the market.
I found this one pretty interesting indeed.
https://www.thegreyfirehorse.com/post/spx500-rsi-divergence
here we go.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
After completing five waves up last Friday EURUSD has gone into sleep mode today!
I was looking for wave ‘iv’ to coming last Friday so todays action fits.
The pattern has drifted sideways in a consolidation all day,
and the range is contracting.
This action suggests a triangle is in play for wave ‘iv’ pink.
The session high today reached 1.1151 which marks the initial target for the larger rally to complete.
But I think we have more to go yet in wave [c].
Tomorrow;
this triangle should complete early in the session.
Watch for a rally out above 1.1151 again to signal wave ‘v’ of (iii) has begun.
I would like to see a break above 1.1200 to complete wave ‘v’ and wave (iii).
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
I think today rally has pushed far enough away from the bearish interpretation to concentrate solely on the alternate count.
The price broke above the previous wave (ii) high and that has really stretched the main wave count to its breaking point.
Overall I am now looking at a rally in wave [c] of ‘C’.
Where wave ‘C’ is part of an ongoing triangle wave [4].
this is best viewed on the daily chart.
The rally today can be viewed as wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [c].
Wave ‘iii’ will ideally push higher tomorrow and create a good clearance above wave ‘i’ at 1.2367.
This will allow wave ‘iv’ of (iii) to correct and not break the high of wave ‘i’.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to continue higher.
Wave ‘iii’ will reach 162% of wave ‘i’ pink at 1.2540.
A correction after that target will be in wave ‘iv’ of (iii).
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
The action in USDJPY is not ideal really,
but the main wave count has not been violated yet.
I am still looking for a rally in wave [iii] green as shown.
but the correction today pushed much lower than expected.
The price has still corrected to a higher low above the wave [ii] low at 107.06.
Wave (ii) blue may still be underway this evening.
A rally back above 107.89 will signal that wave (ii) is complete.
And a break above 108.09 will confirm wave (iii) has begun.
This short term count will be invalidated if we see a break below 107.06 again.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to complete a further higher low above 107.06.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
So far the lower high in the DOW is holding.
The question is – have we completed a second wave correction today.
That remains to be seen this week.
Surely if we see an impulsive decline back below the previous wave (iv) low at 24290 again,
that will definitely favor my bearish bias!
Short term momentum on both the 1hr and 4hr charts is heading lower again after creating a bearish divergence.
And every indicator that I view as important is already pointing much lower now.
And this general setup mirrors the February setup identically.
The only difference is now the economy has fallen apart!
Tomorrow;
the extended wait and see period carries over to another week!
However frustrating this is for us all,
I do feel we are close to a breaking point now.
So,
lets see if the price can carry lower tomorrow to begin wave (iii) down.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Today high has completed wave ‘c’ of (b) at 1744.50.
There is a clear three wave pattern into todays high,
and the price just broke above the previous wave ‘b’ level which is a typical target in a correction.
The price then turned lower again after breaking that level.
Wave (c) down should get going now,
and a break of 1710 again will confirm the count.
The minimum target for wave (c) lies at 1691,
and the price will hit the lower trend channel line again at 1645.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to continue lower and break 1710 to confirm the larger count.
I will most likely be looking higher again in wave [v] before the end of the week.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
The attraction of that gap low at 36.65 seems irresistible now!
The price has shifted away from the triangle scenario that I showed on Friday.
So I have altered the short term count this evening.
I think wave (iv) completed a running flat correction at 31.26.
And now the price is tracing out a typical five wave move higher off that low.
It looks like wave ‘iv’ of (v) completed this morning,
and wave ‘v’ of (v) is now underway.
Tomorrow;
The minimum target for wave ‘v’ to complete lies at the wave ‘iii’ high at 35.90 cash.
but there is room to the upside for a fifth wave extension.
The critical level for this rally still lies at 31.26 now at the wave (iv) low.
If we break that level this week,
then I think we can look lower in a big way again.
Lets just wait for this final stretch higher to clear out of the way first.
It looks like wave [i] down is coming this week.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The price action over the last few sessions has traced out a contracting triangle,
and it seems that triangle is complete at todays lows.
This would suggest another high is in store for the S&P tomorrow.
Although my gut instinct tells me that will be a Pyrrhic victory for those bullish last men standing.
The action is looking pretty weak now in comparison to the last few weeks.
And just like the DOW,
the rally is shedding momentum daily now.
My interpretation calls for a major decline phase to begin imminently,
And I think a drop back below 2900 again in an impulsive form will signal that turn has begun.
Tomorrow;
Looking for a turn back lower into wave (C) has occupied my mind for the last month!
And I still can’t see any other way out of this conundrum we have created.
Lets see if we get any meaningful decline beginning after a thrust from the triangle tomorrow.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
The rally in silver continued today which ruled out the more conservatinve wave count I was working with.
I have altered the short term count to reflect that move today.
It looks like wave (iv) did complete last week with an expanded flat correction at 16.69 last week.
The rally off that low has developed in a nice impulsive looking fashion now.
Todays corrective action is viewed as wave ‘iv’ of (v),
and that correction may not be complete just yet.
But even so,
we should see another run higher in wave ‘v’ of (v) this week to complete the pattern.
the price is heading towards that upper trend line now,
and it should hit that trend channel at about 19.00.
This whole rally of late is compelting a large degree wave ‘1’ up shown in red.
And once complete we should see a reversal lower in wave ‘2’.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iv’ to compelte around 17.96 again.
A rally above 18.37 again will signal wave ‘v’ has begun.