Good evening folks,
This weekend marks the memorial day in the U.S, the markets are closed on Monday so the next update will be on Tuesday night.
I have recorded the video and its ready to binge watch if you wish!
I have to say, todays economic news made for really interesting reading.
There was story after story of business failure and economic malaise.
The likes that I have not seen since 2009.
It is getting very real for the real economy right now and it is only going to get worse.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nyc-hotels-next-domino-drop-commercial-real-estate-implodes
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-comes-wave-loan-defaults-hit-6-years-high
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/japanic-tokyo-tourism-tumbles-999-april
These are the headlines that are going to dominate over the coming years as this depression rolls along.
The dominoes are only beginning to fall now, and this world is about to get scary again.
On with the show.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
The drop in EURUSD continued today but I still view this current decline as corrective within the larger wave [iii] of ‘2’.
Wave (ii) is tracing out a possible expanded flat correction.
And todays lows have retraced just over 50% of the rally earlier this week.
The price must now begin the turn higher into wave (iii).
And I expect wave ‘i’ of (iii) to spike higher on Monday.
A break above the 1.100 handle should confirm wave (iii) has begun.
Tuesday;
Watch for wave (ii) to complete very soon.
Lets see if we get a higher low in wave ‘ii’ pink by Tuesday evening.
The target for wave [c] lies at 1.1300.
1.0747 must hold.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable faltered today also,
but the price action does still look corrective to the downside at the moment.
So the price is tracing out a complex correction within wave ‘ii’ now,
and we should see another leg higher to complete a three wave correction in wave ‘ii’ by the middle of next week.
The I will begin to look lower again in wave ‘iii’ down.
Tuesday;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete with one
more rally into the upper trend line at about 1.2350.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY has dropped off the midweek highs as expected.
But so far that initial decline looks more corrective than impulsive
as you might expect within wave (c).
I am now looking at a larger three wave move in wave (b) of [ii] as the most likely pattern.
The action fits a flat correction 3,3,5 pattern so far.
WAve ‘c’ of (b) should push up to the wave ‘a’ high again at 107.84.
And then we can expect a decline into wave (c) again.
Tuesday;
Watch for wave (b) to complete in the overnight session.
Wave (c) should complete by Tuesday evening.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW has flat-lined below the recent highs again today.
The price is generally moving lower but the action is not impulsive to the downside at all yet.
It looks like the holiday weekend has taken over early and there was very little money on the table today.
Volume so far today has reached 150m shares as I write,
and this is the lowest volume day since Christmas eve last.
The low volume session is in keeping with the trend as this (B) wave rally has gone on.
And it would be quite fitting for wave (B) to end on a sleepy day like this!
So it is again imperative to remain vigilant here.
Because even in the case of the alternate count,
Wave (B) has very little upside left.
My focus in firmly to the downside again next week.
Tuesday;
A serious down day next week can break the back of this rally.
So watch for an impulsive move below 23755
which is the first signal point to indicate a turn lower is in play.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
After falling off this weeks high in a corrective three wave pattern.
Gold is now up off the lows again this evening.
The price did not quite reach the lower trend channel line in wave ‘ii’ pink.
But that low at 1716 is looking promising as the final low for wave ‘ii’ pink.
If we see a rally back above 1754 again,
that will favor the idea that wave ‘iii’ has begun.
Tuesday;
watch for wave ‘iii’ up to begin with a break of 1754 and a small higher low above 1716.
If next week marks the beginning of the next leg down in stocks,
then next week could also mark the beginning of the next leg up in gold.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude fell in a promising fashion this morning
and this is pretty much in line with the the idea that a top is now forming again in crude
It is possible that we have a five wave decline in place at the session lows,
but it is hard to pick it out on the hourly chart.
The market has snapped back this evening,
so we will have to wait and see if this forms a second wave lower high below 34.66,
this level marks the top of wave (4) at the moment.
Crude oil should fall hard in the next leg down along with the stock market.
And I am looking for a five wave decline develop in wave [i] next week.
Up until this point crude has always led the way into the declines.
It seems that both markets are levitating on optimism now,
so they will likely both fall in unison the next time.
Tuesday;
watch for a five wave decline to develop in wave [i] down as shown.
If this evenings rally stops short of the 34.66 high and then declines in early trading next week,
that will create a bearish signal that wave [i] is in play.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The decline today is hard to call right now.
The low of the session today did break Tuesdays lows.
But the market is pushing higher into the clsoe again this evening.
The action off the high looks too choppy to regard as an impulse wave lower now.
But if we get a sharp move below 2852 early next week,
that will be a signal to pay attention to.
A break of 2852 will take out the high of wave (i).
And that will switch the focus to the downside again.
The topping pricess that we are going through is proving very testing.
But I am reminded again and again of the principle of a ‘B’ wave.
That is – to draw in as many people as possible into the myth of the renewed trend.
And then once the buy-in has happened,
the rally will break and we head lower into the next leg.
I fear this next leg down,
because it is going to ruin many livelyhoods for years to come.
I hope I can manage to stay out of the way of the carnage at least!
Monday;
Lets see of we get a turn lower into wave [i] again.
2980.9 must hold.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is pushing higher this evening
after completing a three wave correction at todays lows.
I have labelled todays lows as wave ‘c’ of (iv).
and this should lead to a further rally in wave (v) of [v].
The price has bounced off the lows this evening.
So wave (v) may have begun already.
If the price fills the trend channel in wave (v),
that should see a top form up at the next resistance level at 18.93.
A break of that level in wave ‘1’ will really add weight to the idea that silver is now in a ne bull market.
That does not exclude the fact that we will likely see another correction coming our way soon in wave ‘2’.
But we will concentrate on that when we get wave [v] out of the way.
Tuesday;
Watch for wave [v] green to complete with one more run higher in wave (v) blue.
A break of 17.57 again will signal wave [v] is underway.
That does it for another week my friends.
I pray you all have an enjoyable weekend.
God’s Blessings to you and yours.
bon chance mes amis,
enda.