Hi everyone.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
There is a chance that the decline in wave (ii) is now complete at todays lows.
That is only if we consider wave (ii) as an expanded flat.
If we get a rally back above 1.1010 tomorrow,
that should be confirmation that wave (iii) of [c] has now begun.
It remains to be seen if wave (ii) develops into a larger structure as is always the case with corrections.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to complete and wave (iii) to begin.
Todays low came in at 1.0938.
If that level holds and we get a break of 1.1010 tomorrow,
that should lead to a nice rally in wave (iii).
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
The call for a correction higher in wave ‘ii’ is still in play today.
The drop into the session low at 1.2185 is viewed as an internal ‘b’ wave within wave ‘ii’.
This should give way to a rally to complete wave ‘ii’ up around 1.2350.
Once wave ‘ii’ completes,
I will be looking lower again in wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [v].
All the while I have one eye on the larger alternate count in the daily chart.
And a break of 1.2460 will push me to switch to that count.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘ii’ to run higher to complete a three wave correction.
I do not want to see price break above the 1.2400 handle in wave ‘ii’.
That will be a bit too close for comfort.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY has completed a lower high below the wave [i] high at 108.09.
This lower high is marked as wave (b) of [ii],
and wave (c) down should now push lower again in five waves
towards the lower trend channel line at about 107.00 again.
This pattern that I am describing is a bullish setup for USDJPY,
and wave [ii] should be followed by a rally in wave [iii].
And wave [iii] should carry back above the 109.00 level at least.
Tomorrow;
Watch for price to fall overnight again in wave (c) of [ii].
It looks like we should be complete wave [ii] by tomorrow evening.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The high of 24764.77 on April 29th remains the high of wave (B) so far.
The market has tried to make a run at that level twice now in May.
But to no avail yet.
This is a picture of the death of upside momentum.
When you consider all the ‘good news’ that has been thrown at the market.
You might ask why arent we blasting higher for new all time highs now?
I dont think so!
The volume numbers over the lat week have been falling precipitously also.
Todays number so far on the DOW is 222m shares.
This is lower than the number shares traded on the days around the all time high in February.
That ranged between 230 – 300m daily.
Again, a sign of complete passive complacency in the market.
Even if the alternate count gets triggered tomorrow,
seen as it is a holiday weekend in the U.S,
this really does look and feel like a top to me.
And just like February,
the last thing anyone seems to expect is another scary drop.
Which only serves to raise the probability of wave (C) even higher.
Tomorrow;
The price is so close to triggering that alternate count now that it would be foolish of me to rule it out.
But the setup right now is clear to me.
And the downside risks are overwhelming.
So do not be surprised to see a sharp move into wave (i) tomorrow out of the blue.
As ever I am waiting patiently!
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold has hit the minimum target for wave ‘ii’ today by breaking 1725 again.
This action has traced out a three wave decline off the high at wave ‘i’.
So now it is time to look for a bottom to form in wave ‘ii’ in the coming days.
and when that is in place,
then next week we can look for wave ‘iii’ up to begin.
Tomorrow;
Wave ‘ii’ would hit the trendline at about 1708.
but I would like the rally to start even before that level.
1691 must hold from here.
And wave ‘iii’ will be confirmed with a rally above 1764 again.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude is giving the first signs that it is coming off the boil now.
Wave ‘C’ of (4) started in an environment of extreme fear,
and now is now ending in an environment of extreme optimism again.
So much so that the president is happy to tweet glowingly about it!
The price has created an extended five wave structure in wave ‘C’.
And has carried up to the previous fourth wave highs again.
And now we are at a point where a major turn lower should begin to form in wave (5).
Tomorrow;
31.50 marks the low of the recent triangle fourth wave.
Wave (i) of [i] should break down below that level again to signal that the top is in for wave ‘c’ and wave (4).
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
Wave ‘C’ has pushed the envelope of this correction this last few weeks,
Much like crude oil,
this rally began from a base of absolute fear,
and has ended bathing in the glow of invincibility.
That is exactly what (B) waves are supposed to do – match the euphoria of the previous highs.
And boy have we managed that in spades.
But a correction it remains none the less!
There is not much change in terms of the short term action.
The momentum divergence is still in place.
The wave structure in wave ‘C’ is all but complete.
All we actually need is a definitive turn lower in five waves to put an end to the rally.
And that is what I am still waiting for.
Tomorrow;
Wave [i] down should break through 2852 with ease.
This is the first level of interest to signal a turn off the high has begun.
So I will wait for that move to begin soon.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver fell today off yesterdays highs and this has changed the structure of the recent action.
Todays decline can be viewed as wave ‘c’ of (iv),
and the pattern is either a running flat complete at todays lows,
or an expanded flat if the price breaks the wave ‘a’ low again.
This pattern suggests that wave (v) is still left ahead of us.
And a break above 1760 again will signal that wave (v) is underway.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a rebound off 16.80 and a rally in wave (v) to begin.