Hi there everyone.
That was a hell of a day.
The highest TICK reading EVER was recorded today.
What does this change you ask?
Nothing is the answer!
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/millennials-manic-robinhood-down
The fact that the trading apps robinhood and etrade crashed today most likely on extreme volume, says all I need to know about where we are in the cycle.
Extreme optimism at the end of a wave (B) rally, that is it!
And the retail trader has grabbed the bag with both hands now.
On with the show.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
That sharp rally in EURUSD today has opened up another possibility for the wave [b] correction.
And I have switched to that wave count no on the short term chart.
This involves a triangle wave [b] which grinded sideways over the last few weeks.
And now today we saw a spike higher out of that triangle which broke above the wave (d) high.
This is a good sign that the correction in wave [b] is now over,
and the rally into wave [c] is now underway.
Tomorrow;
We should get a five wave rally in wave (i) of [c] by tomorrow evening.
And then a small correction in wave (ii) will lead the way higher into wave [c] for the rest of the week.
The initial target for wave [c] remains at 1.1150.
If wave [c] hits the upper trend channel line,
that gives us a target at about 1.1300 to complete wave [c] and wave ‘2’.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
A sharp rise off Fridays lows has ruled out the previous wave count for wave (iii) down.
Todays rally was simply too large to account for within a third of a third decline.
So I am looking at the possibility that this rally is only wave ‘ii’ of (iii) now underway.
If so,
we should see a clear three wave correction into the 1.2300 area over the next few sessions.
And then wave ‘iii’ down will begin to accelerate lower again.
I do have one eye on the alternate count on the daily chart for sure.
Todays rally is nowhere near big enough to trigger that count.
Only a break of 1.2460 will favor that alternate count.
But it is worth keeping it in mind.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to correct higher in three waves.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY continues to grind sideways today in what could be a developing triangle.
The sideways trade will have to continue for a few more days t confirm this view.
But a triangle pattern is the best fit for the price action at the moment.
This count suggests that USDJPY will spike above 108.00 again in wave (v) of [i] later in the week.
Tomorrow;
watch for a drop into the rising trend line at about 107.00 overnight.
The price range should continue to contract tomorrow in this triangle wave (iv) scenario.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
I waited until the close to write this evening.
After that rally today,
I wanted to see the price action up around the previous high.
Its a very close call I will admit,
but that high at 24764 has held tonight.
So that level is acting as resistance this evening.
I am very aware that this count can be blown out of the water with another rally tomorrow.
But there is a chance that todays high is the top tick of wave [ii].
Where wave [ii] is an expanded flat correction.
If we break above 24764 again then the alternate count takes center stage.
This involves the recent action off the high as a correction in wave [iv] of ‘C’.
And then todays rally is wave [v] of ‘C’.
Tomorrow;
Todays rally was over 1000 points!
So I don’t expect that rally to be completely retraced by tomorrow evening.
But If wave [iii] dow is getting going now,
then we should take out the lows of wave [i] by the end of the week.
The action at the open tomorrow is crucial.
watch for a drop to a lower high tomorrow and solid reversal over the coming days.
A push below 24000 again will be a good start.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold took a beating today and I think this action is enough to switch wave counts.
The recent action was viewed as a series of 1,2 waves,
building higher in a wave [iii] rally.
With todays selloff,
I think we can switch to the idea that the recent action was a triangle within wave [iii] green.
I have labelled this triangle as wave (iv) of [iii],
and the rally out of that triangle is wave ‘i’ of (v) of [iii].
Wave (v) [iii] should continue higher over the coming weeks.
But we got to get wave ‘ii’ out of the way first.
Tomorrow;
watch for a three wave pattern to develop in wave ‘ii’.
This pattern should complete above 1691.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
The HOPE rally is bleeding into everything today!
Crude actually broke above the 32 handle today.
This rally in wave ‘C’ has been immense,
and now it has broken the most optimistic projection I had for it.
that was a retracement into the high of the previous fourth wave at one lesser degree.
That target is has now been hit,
and I think it is now high time that we saw a reversal.
And that is what I am looking for this week in crude.
Tomorrow;
The market hit the top tick and sold off pretty sharply this evening.
I will have to wait and see if this develops into a new decline to begin wave (5).
Watch for wave [i] down to push lower tomorrow.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
It looks like this week will be a wait and see moment again.
Much like the top of the market was back in February.
It was inevitable back then that the rally would go on forever,
and then out of nowhere,
the bottom completely fell out of everything!
I sense the very same stupid optimism in the last few weeks of trading.
And I can see the very same thing happen this time too.
As I watched the rally rip higher this evening,
I fully expected the high at 2972.4 to be taken out.
That did not happen.
In fact the price has retreated off the session high along with the DOW.
I have not switched to the alternate count in the S&P,
And if we see a sharp drop early tomorrow,
then we could be reverting to that decline in wave [iii] all over again.
The alternate count will allow for wave ‘C’ to extend to complete five waves off last weeks lows.
If we get a break of 2972.4,
that alternate will be triggered and we will have to wait again for another shot at the downside.
Tomorrow;
2972 must hold.
Watch for an impulsive reversal tomorrow to push back below 2900 again.
A clear break of 2868 again will signal wave [iii] has begun.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver rallied early this morning in an almost vertical fashion.
This action really stretched the previous count,
and so this evening I have altered the wave count.
the rally into todays high is now viewed as wave (iii) of [v] of ‘1’.
This count suggests that we have another high in wave (v) of [v] ahead of us,
but that high will likely give way to a sharp selloff in wave ‘2’ over the coming weeks.
Tomorrow;
I am still tracking a five wave rally for the rest of the week.
Wave (iv) blue should correct a little further tomorrow,
but it should complete above 16.50 on the low end.
A break of 15.82 again will signal wave ‘1’ is complete.
And then we can prepare for a longer correction in wave ‘2’.