Good evening folks.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD is moving lower in line with wave ‘iii’ of (c) today.
The price seems to be consolidating tonight in the 1.0800 area,
but this is likely just a small correction within wave ‘iii’.
I would like to see wave ‘iii’ make it as far as support at 1.0725,
and after another correction in wave ‘iv’,
then another drop in wave ‘v’ will hit that lower target at 1.0630.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iii’ to continue lower.
The price must hold below 1.0897 at wave ‘i’ pink.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable is dropping in wave ‘iii’ also today.
This decline is also viewed as a third wave down in wave ‘iii’ of (i).
The big difference between cable and EURUSD now
is that cable should now begin a larger wave [v] down.
And this decline has the potential to be in the 1000 point range.
But we have some hurdles to get over first.
Tomorrow;
Wave ‘iii’ of (i) should break below initial support at 1.2245 before correcting in wave ‘iv’.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
I have switched to the alternate count today in USDJPY.
The price fell below the trigger level at 1.0636 and seems to be gaining momentum again.
I have now switched wave ‘B’ to that triangle idea as mentioned over the last week.
And wave ‘C’ of (E) is moving lower in five waves now.
Wave [iii] of ‘C’ is expected to carry on lower towards the 105.00 handle over the next few days.
WAve [iii] will reach 162% of wave [i] at 104.80,
so that level becomes the main target now.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) of [iii] to continue lower and trace out a clear five wave pattern.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The stock market is absolutely surreal these days!
Given the completely abysmal data that keeps pouring out from both the govt agencies and companies alike,
it is absolutely amazing that anyone wants to own stocks these days!
But I suppose the delusion is almost always higher at at the wave (B) peak,
than at the actual bull market peak!
We are just sailing blindfolded,
in a trance,
straight into the main event of the bear market – Wave (C) down here we come.
The trade was uneventful today as wave (b) is making the turn lower.
the move off the high so far is not enough to call wave (b) complete.
I would expect a drop into the 23500 level at least to call wave (b) complete.
And then we will work on that bearish lower high in wave (c) of [ii] on Friday.
So that is what I will look for tomorrow;
Watch for wave (b) to continue lower to form a slight higher low above the wave [i] low.
If the price accelerates below that wave [i] level and picks up momentum,
then I think we can call wave [iii] underway.
We are at a pretty crucial point in the wave structure,
So things could get really wild quickly.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
It looks like gold has extended the correction in wave ‘ii’ pink today.
So with todays decline into 1681 I think we now have a more complete form in wave ‘ii’.
and I can begin to look higher in wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [iii].
With a bit of luck,
this one should be a real exciting ride.
Tomorrow;
The price has lifted slightly off the lows this evening.
But we need to see that rally continue above 1721 to signal that wave ‘iii’ has begun.
the low at 1668 must hold at wave (ii) blue.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude oil had a nice pump and dump into todays highs just above $26.
The pattern off the high so far is in three waves,
This could be a series of 1,2 waves building into a larger five wave pattern as shown.
ideally I would like to see a five wave decline off that 26.08 high,
to indicate that wave [i] down has begun.
And once we have a bearish signal in place at wave [ii],
then crude will likely take another nose dive in wave [iii]back below the 20 handle again.
Tomorrow;
One step at a time.
Watch for wave ‘C’ to hold at 26.08.
Wave (iii) of [i] should continue lower.
And wave [i] itself should find a low near the previous fourth wave low in a few days time.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
Despite a good early decline this morning,
the S&P rebounded to a small lower high and has drifted to the downside for most of the session.
This action is hard to nail down right now as the pattern seems incomplete yet.
I am still allowing for a corrective decline in wave (b) of [ii] at the moment.
But there is a niggling thought in the back of my head
that is pointing at the more bearish alternate count.
If wave [ii] is already complete at Tuesdays high,
then we will know tomorrow as wave [iii] down will simply accelerate back below 2800 with ease.
At that point we can switch into full bearish mode!
Tomorrow;
for the moment I will stick with the main wave count for wave [ii] ad let the action speak for itself.
Watch for wave (b) to continue lower to form a higher low above 2800,
and then turn higher in wave (c).
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
The triangle in wave [b] is holding on with a death grip to the price action this week.
The price is continuing to drift sideways and become more compressed as it does.
The main wave count calls for another drop into the 13.80 level to complete a three wave correction in wave ‘2’ red.
After that,
I expect to see another rally begin in wave ‘3’.
The alternate count is still viable also as that triangle formation continues sideways.
The range between 15.51 and 14.59 must be broken first,
in order to decide between the counts.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [b] to complete,
and then drop off into wave [c] by Fridays trade.