Good evening one and all.
I hope you enjoyed your break away from the markets.
I just watched Jeff Gundalach’s latest webcast and it is well worth a listen, you can check that out here https://doubleline.com/latest-webcasts/
Down to it.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD is expected to fall into a new low over the coming weeks or so in wave (c) of [b].
And so far today that seems to be happening.
The price has dropped sharply off Fridays highs at 1.1018.
And I am viewing this as an impulsive wave ‘i’ of (c) of [b].
Wave (c) should drop in a five wave pattern,
and the initial target for wave (c) lies at 1.0725.
The price could get as low 1.0630 if we reach the lower trend channel line,
but we will have to wait and see on that front.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to continue lower for the rest of the week.
Wave ‘ii’ of (c) should make a lower high below 1.1018 if it is not done already.
Wave ‘iii’ will make most of the progress towards the target.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable is moving lower also today keeping the selloff that started on Friday going.
The lows of the previous fourth wave at 1.2387 seem to be offering some support now in wave ‘i’ down,
and I suspect that this will lead to a small rebound in wave ‘ii’ starting tomorrow.
I want to see wave ‘ii’ hold below that 1.2500 handle at the previous wave ‘iii’ high also.
and then wave ‘iii’ of (i) is expected to fall back towards 1.2245 later this week.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘i’ to find a low soon and then wave ‘ii’ to rebound to a lower high at about 1.2500.
This should take most of tomorrow to complete.
USDJPY.
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USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is pretty stable today after falling sharply off last Thursdays highs.
the price has not accelerated into a third wave up yet,
so this is a little worrying in terms of the count.
The low at 106.36 must hold from here,
but if that level breaks it will suggest wave ‘C’ is still underway.
I have shown a possible alternate count that will allow for an extended wave ‘C’.
Tomorrow;
If the price breaks above 107.50 again,
then the main count is safe.
Watch for 106.36 to hold.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW gaped lower at the open again today as it did on Friday last.
That makes a total of three gaps within the structure of this initial move lower off the high.
The market has hit a temporary low this afternoon,
but I can’t tell if this is this low of wave (i) or just a correction within wave (i).
A further decline tomorrow will decide that.
For the moment I think it is worth looking at the correction to come in wave (ii).
I do expect a bounce in wave (ii) as shown.
Ideally that correction will fill the gap left this morning.
So that gives us an initial target at about 23645.
Wave (ii) could also push up to Fridays flat trade at about 23800.
And above that level,
we have Fridays gap beginning at about 24030.
When wave (ii) does complete,
then we can prepare for another sharp drop into wave (iii) of [i].
And wave (iii) should bring the price down into the 22000 handle again.
If we get a sharp move lower without any correction in wave (ii),
that will suggest wave [i] is progressing much faster than I have just laid out.
In general this week I am looking at that wave [ii] level as the most interesting tradable high.
The move into wave [iii] off that level should be far more vigorous and sustained and therefore that wave [ii] high
will offer the best risk reward to the downside.
Tomorrow;
Lets keep on tracking wave [i] down with the minimum target set at the previous wave [iv] low at 22942.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold moved higher into 1712 today, continuing Fridays spike up off the wave (ii) low.
This move favors the bullish count as it stands,
but a break above 1722 at that wave ‘b’ high will be a solid signal that wave (iii) is underway.
It looks like todays high may have completed wave ‘i’ of (iii),
I want to see a very shallow correction in wave ‘ii’ of (iii) by tomorrow evening,
and then wave ‘iii’ of (iii) should push out to a new high by the end of the week.
wave (iii) of [iii] has the potential t push to a new all time high this month,
so I am watching this setup closely.
In the short term the price must hold above 1668 at wave (ii) for this to happen.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to correct back below 1700 again.
But I would prefer to see a very short and shallow correction in wave ‘ii’.
Wave (iii) will be confirmed with a break of 1746.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude is following the short term script to a tee these days!
The price completed a fourth wave correction today.
Wave [iv] green looks like a contracting triangle,
and this triangle completed above the previous wave ‘A’ high as I was suggesting.
Wave [v] of ‘C’ is now likely underway off todays lows.
This rally in wave [v] can push up as high as the 24.00 handle again if we reach the upper rend channel line.
That is very achievable by tomorrow evening,
depending on how the wave [v] structure plays out.
In general I think we are closer to a top now in crude rather than any major break out.
But lets just see how wave ‘C’ tops out over the coming days.
Tomorrow;
Wave [v] is now underway and so the price should hold above todays low at 19.48.
Once the price breaks below that level again,
that will signal wave ‘C’ and wave (4) are coming to an end.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P made a new low this morning also,
and I have labelled this as wave (i) down now complete.
The price has recovered throughout the day,
but that price action has been very weak and corrective looking.
I can see a three wave pattern now in place into this evenings highs.
This may be wave ‘a’ of (ii),
or all of wave (ii) now done.
At the moment it is impossible to know which.
Either way, I would to see wave (ii) hold below that 2860 level formed by the previous fourth wave.
Tomorrow;
If the price moves lower impulsively and breaks the cash low at 2797,
then we know we have wave (ii) in-place and wave (iii) down underway.
the larger wave [i] should break the 2727 low,
so this is he key level in the short term.
Watch for wave (iii) down to begin tomorrow.
SILVER.
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SILVER daily.
After todays action I think I can rule out the alternate count,
and just concentrate on wave ‘2’ completing this week.
Wave [c] of ‘2’ is moving in a three wave pattern so far.
So wave ‘2’ is tracing out a combination wave.
The trend channels all seem to be pointing at the low 14’s for wave [c] to complete.
The previous fourth wave lies at 13.79.
These two levels offer a good initial target for wave ‘2’ to complete.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (b) of [c] to complete early tomorrow.
Wave (c) down will break 14.49 at a minimum.