Good evening folks!
Here is the weekend video if you have time to kill!
Which we all have given we are locked in and the economy has been dealt a death blow……..
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD hit the target at 1.0990 today in wave ‘c’ of (b).
So far wave ‘c’ has traced out three waves up into this evenings highs.
With that pattern in mind,
there may still be some more upside in wave ‘c’ if it develops into a five wave pattern.
That upside is likely limited though,
So, for the moment,
I think it is worth considering the downside potential in wave (c) of [b].
Monday;
IF we see a lower high off todays high at 1.1018,
that will signal wave (c) is getting started.
Watch for 1.1018 to hold now and wave (c) to fall towards the 1.0600 level at the lower trend channel line.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Todays action did not push above the 1.2648 level as expected,
so I have shown a slightly different interpretation this evening for wave (c) of [iv].
This new count involves a running flat correction in wave (b),
and then a five wave rally off the low at 1.2246 to complete wave (c) at this weeks highs.
In this pattern it is not imperative that the recent high at 1.2648 be broken by wave (c).
So for the moment,
I am happy to consider the downside potential again in wave [v].
Monday;
watch for wave (i) down to continue to below 1.2245 again.
The high at 1.2646 must now hold.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
I am now beginning to look to the upside again in USDJPY after the spike higher off the recent lows.
So It is possible that wave ‘C’ of (E) is now complete at the recent lows of 106.36.
This evenings higher low can be viewed as wave (ii) of [i] as shown.
And wave [i] should continue higher over the next week.
The low at wave (E) must hold on Monday for this short term count to remain valid.
Monday;
Watch for wave [i] to push higher and break above 108.03 at a minimum in the first half of the week.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
We now have a solid down day under out belts after enduring the relentless rally over the last week.
And with this decline I can begin to build towards a larger bearish signal off that high.
I have labelled that bearish signal as an impulse wave lower in waves [i] and [ii].
You can view the pattern as a simple head and shoulders pattern.
Wave [ii] should create a lower high and right side shoulder over the coming days,
to counter act the left shoulder created by waves [iii] and [iv] last week.
I would like to see wave [i] fall in five waves and break the neck line at 22940 next week.
In my book,
that will be a serious blow to any bullish case here.
Monday;
Now we have some action that we can work with.
The action might develop a whole lot quicker and less orderly than I have described,
so I will try to be as flexible as possible here.
The main aim next week is to create a five wave decline in wave [i].
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold has not given up the ghost completely this week,
and in fact the price is still holding a higher low above 1657 now.
Todays rally has opened up another possibility for the pattern now,
and I have switched to that pattern this evening.
The recent rally and higher low is now viewed as waves (i) and (ii) of [iii].
And the spike higher this afternoon,
is viewed as the beginning of wave (iii) of [iii].
If this count is correct,
then wave [iii] is about to embark on a long and powerful move higher over the coming month or so.
And wave [iii] has the potential to push to a new all time high again before it is finished.
So the stakes are high now, and it is time to prepare!
Monday;
First things first,
the low at 1657 must now hold.
If that level breaks then it is back to the drawing board in the short term.
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (iii) of [iii] to push above 1722 again to signal the rally has begun in wave (iii).
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude is holding onto the gains of the week this evening.
This is a good sign that wave ‘C’ is not yet complete at todays highs.
I have shown a correction underway today in wave [iv] of ‘C’.
Where wave [iv] is tracing out a possible flat correction.
It is likely this correction wave [iv] will remain in force for another day at least which the pattern takes shape.
Although I would like to see wave [iv] complete at or near the wave ‘A’ high.
Wave [v] of ‘C’ will then be set to rally again up towards the 24.50 area,
where the price will hit the upper trend channel line again.
Monday;
Watch for wave [iv] to complete a three wave correction near the wave ‘A’ high at 18.84.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
After putting in a solid rally this week into the recent high at 2954,
the S&P fell sharply today in a nice five wave pattern.
This is the action I was waiting for all week!
And at least now I have a reasonable first step to work with from here.
The decline today is viewed as wave (i) of [i] of ‘1’ of (C).
That will give an idea of how far we have left to go If I am correct!
In general next week I am looking for a clear five wave decline,
and a break initial support at 2727 in wave [i] green.
Wave [ii] should create a bearish lower high later next week or even the following week.
And once that pattern is complete,
we will be set to move rapidly lower again in wave [iii] of ‘1’.
Monday;
Watch for the high at 2954 to hold and wave (ii) to create a lower
high below that level.
Wave [i] down should only take a few days to complete.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
The short term pattern in silver is still as confusing as ever this evening!
I am still expecting wave [c] of ‘2’ to complete soon with one more drop into 13.79.
But for the moment the low at 14.49 is still holding.
And the longer this level holds,
the more likely that some other corrective pattern is operating here.
I have allowed for an alternate count to play out here for wave [iv] and [v],
but that pattern is a not moving convincingly towards that idea either!
For the moment,
I am going to have to let the price action sort this out.
Monday;
Watch for wave [c] to complete with one more break of 13.79.
Then we can setup for a rally into wave ‘3’ again.
That does it for the week,
I hope you all have a glorious weekend ahead!
It’s hard to believe we are in May already,
roll on the summertime,
and some freedom again once we see the back of this evil virus!
God’s Blessings to all of you and your families.
See you back here on Monday.
enda.