Good evening folks!
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD continued higher this evening with a pretty vertical spike to the upside.
The price stopped short of hitting the 1.0990 level so far.
But maybe we get there overnight and at leat make the minimum target level.
The action in wave ‘c’ is still in three waves overall.
As it stands tonight,
wave (b) is a complex upside correction with three waves in each leg of the pattern.
This also leaves wave (b) open to a triangle pattern overall.
But I will have to wait and see on that front.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (b) to complete soon with a break of 1.0990.
A move back below 1.0800 will signal wave (c) is underway.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable is higher today also which fits well with the short term count so far.
The price has rallied sharply today out of the wave (b) triangle correction.
So It is safe to say that wave (c) is well underway now.
Tomorrow;
So far the pattern in wave (c) seems to have created three waves.
I would like to see another high to break above 1.2648 tomorrow,
to complete five waves in wave (c).
And then I will begin to look lower into wave (i) of [v] again.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
We have see a sharp reversal higher this evening which is suggesting that the declines in wave [v] of ‘C’ are over.
This may prove premature if the market falls to a new low again,
but for the moment,
I think it is worth looking to the possibility that wave ‘C’ of (E) is done now.
And if that is correct,
we may be about to embark on a solid rally ahead in USDJPY.
There are a couple of things that need to happen to confirm this longer term forecast.
The first thing is we need to see a five wave rally out of this low.
I have shown wave [i] green as the initial wave up.
Wave [i] should push above the recent wave [iv] high at 108.03 again at a minimum.
Tomorrow;
This is a speculative short term count,
because the larger move up that I am expecting is at least four degrees higher than
than the labeling that I was working with this week.
So there is still some doubt here.
Lets see if the low at 106.36 can hold and then if wave [i] can track higher in a five wave pattern next week.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
At least today we get a move back in the right direction for a change!
This drop has a reasonably impulsive form to it right now.
I am labeling this drop as wave (i) down,
but I will need to see much more downside to follow in order to confirm this bearish count.
I general I am looking for five waves down in wave [i] green and a break below 2300 again to call the top in place for wave (B).
So that action will have to wait until next week again!
My patience is being pushed on this one,
but I have to remember that the market is moving to its own tune rather than at my beck and call!
So patience is the key here again.
Tomorrow;
The high for wave (B) now stands at 24764.
This level must hold and wave (ii) should create a lower high below 24764,
before wave (iii) of [i] accelerates lower again.
Watch for wave (ii) to complete by tomorrow evening.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold finally fell in a more impulsive fashion today in wave ‘c’ of (c).
Wave ‘c’ is expected to continue lower towards 1657 to complete.
This should be achieved by Monday evening I think.
I will admit,
this decline is just as easy to explain with the slightly more bullish alternate count now.
If we see a rally again tomorrow which moves back above 1723 again,
that will be enough to trigger the alternate count.
Tomorrow;
This weeks action has seen the price bounce back and forth between two competing bullish counts.
And that battle has not been decided yet.
1722 seems to be the key level in choosing between those two interpretations.
Watch for wave ‘c’ to complete at the lower trend channel line with a beak of 1657.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude oil pushed to a high at 16.78 today.
This action is in line with the idea that wave [iii] of ‘C’ is now underway.
But I want to see price hold above the wave [i] low at 12.65 cash now.
A break of that level will cast doubt on any further rally.
And I may have to look lower into wave (5) again.
Tomorrow;
This evenings drop off the high can be viewed as a correction within wave [iii].
in that case we should see a further rally above 16.78 again tomorrow.
I would like to see wave [iii] break above the 18.00 handle before wave [iv] begins.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P is lower today with a possible impulsive decline off the high.
While this is very welcome,
there is still a ways to go before breaking the previous fourth wave low at 2727,
which would confirm the top of wave (B) is in place.
So I am approaching this with a measure of caution now.
The smaller fourth wave low lies at 2860,
A break of this level will be a nice boost to the short term count.
And that will suggest wave (iii) down has begun.
I want to see wave (iii) of [i] break below the 2800 level early next week.
Tomorrow;
All of my focus now is on wave [i] down.
Five waves lower with a break of 2727 is the action to watch for over the coming days.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver made a new weekly high and a new weekly low today!
And again we are closing above the lows of the session.
So;
Today action has not helped one bit
in clarifying which of the wave counts is the better fit right now.
On the bearish side,
It is possible that wave [c] is now underway,
and we will see a new low to complete wave ‘2’ near to 14.00 again.
But we have not broken that short term support at 14.49 yet!
14.49 is now the key level to decide which of these counts is correct.
A break of that level will confirm wave [c] of ‘2’ is underway.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave [c] to break 14.49 in order to rule out the alternate count.