Hello to all,
Its been a funny and frustrating day to say the least.
so I will cut the chat and get straight into it tonight!
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
Another day another count in EURUSD!
I am looking towards the alternate count in EURUSD tonight for one reason,
we saw a small spike higher to break 1.0860 again.
This has caused too much overlap in the pattern to the downside now.
And this action really does not fit with a declining five wave pattern in wave (c) of [b].
So now I will concentrate on a larger flat correction within wave (b) of [b].
With a short term target for wave ‘c’ of (b) at 1.0990.
At that point I will look lower again into wave (c) of [b].
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (b) to continue higher towards the target at 1.0990 in five waves.
The low at 1.0725 must hold for this short term pattern to remain valid.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
The action in cable has not yet triggered the alternate count,
but it is not far off thats for sure.
Todays spike high at wave ‘ii’ came within pips of invalidating the (i) (ii), ‘i’ ‘ii’ wave count.
The high at wave ‘ii’ pink is only only 4 pips below the previous wave (ii) high.
This count can still be viewed as valid for the moment,
And we can allow for a reversal lower into wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to begin tomorrow.
But tonight is is worth considering the short term alternate count.
This calls for a larger triangle wave (b) to continue sideways for another few sessions.
That wave (b) low will probably be hit in the area 1.2300.
And then wave (c) would rally in five waves off that point.
Tomorrow;
The price must accelerate lower immediately for the main wave count to remain valid.
A break of 1.2245 will signal wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is underway.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is moving lower in keeping with the short term count now.
Wave [v] seems to be underway now,
and wave (iii) of [v] has created a five wave pattern into this afternoons lows at 106.56.
Wave (iv) should now correct sideways and hold below 107.40 at wave (i).
Wave (v) of [v] should then fall again into the lower trend line at 105.50 region to complete the pattern in wave [v] of ‘C’ of (E).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iv) to complete below 107.40 overnight.
A break of 106.56 will signal wave (v) has begun.
I will note also that the minimum target for wave [v] has already been met
by breaking the 106.90 level.
So a sharp move higher from here will signal that wave ‘1’ is underway.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
We saw a spike higher in the futures early on this morning,
and this translated into a break above 24264 at the previous high at the open.
This rally triggered the alternate count for wave [v] of ‘C’.
And the new high for wave (B) lies at 24512 cash.
I am now beginning the hunt for a five wave decline off that high this evening,
to signal that the bear market rally is over.
Wave [i] down should again reach into the lows of wave [iv] with a break of the 23000 handle again.
And then we look for a corrective lower high in wave [ii]
before the market begins a long slide in wave [iii] of ‘1’.
I know that alot of people are scratching their heads looking at me thinking,
is this guy mad or just plain dumb?
Well I may be those things,
but that does not take away from the fact that wave (B) was always going to poke the animal spirit back into action,
I knew that wave (B) could rally into these levels when complete.
And I knew that the fear present at the lows of wave (A) would be disipated at that point.
The general consensus now is that we have a standard V recovery underway in the market,
and we should all just dive in with our eyes closed!
Of course that is exactly what people will say when they are confident the worst is over.
And of course people will turn bullish at the exact wrong time,
AGAIN!
Tomorrow;
I remain firmly bearish now.
And the hunt for a signal off the high is on.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold seems to have halted its decline in wave (c) today,
and instead of accelerating in a normal five wave pattern towards the target at 1657,
we now have a spike to the upside with an internal overlap in in the pattern.
This means one of two things,
wave (c) is getting very complex and will create a three wave drop into the target.
Or,
The alternate count is now underway.
I am willing to remain cautious at this point as wave (c) could take over again tomorrow.
But any move higher above 1738 again will trigger that bullish alternate.
Tomorrow;
Lets allow the action a chance to invalidate the main wave count.
Otherwise,
if the market falls below 1691 again that will favor wave (c) of [ii].
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude dropped again into 10.07 early this morning.
That action ruled out last nights count,
but this mornings decline seems to have completed a five wave drop in wave [c].
The market has pushed higher off that low and broke above 13.50 again this afternoon.
If we see a further rally again tomorrow which break above 15.64 again at the previous wave [a] low.
That will signal wave ‘C’ is underway and we can expect wave ‘C’ to push above the 20.00 handle again at a minimum.
Tomorrow;
The market is so volatile these days that patterns are compressed and the action is furious.
That being said,
I still favor the idea of a larger three wave corrective pattern to complete wave (4) red.
If todays low holds and we rally again,
then the odds favor a larger rally in wave ‘C’.
If 10.07 breaks,
then all bets are off!
And we may be heading lower into wave (5) sooner than I thought.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P spiked higher at the open also today which has completed a possible five wave rally in wave [v] green.
The high of the session reached 2921,
This happens to be about 10 points shy of the 62% retracement level.
I did not think we would see that level give the recent action,
but it was always a possibility in a this bearmarket rally in wave (B).
This evening we see another sharp reversal lower off the high of the session.
And again we have hit another major mile marker in the wave structure.
Three waves complete in wave (B).
A five wave rally complete in wave ‘C’ of (B).
Collapsing momentum and leadership in the final leg of the rally.
Hitting resistance at a common Fib retracemnt level.
At this point I am firmly looking lower again.
Tomorrow;
Wave [i] down has a glaring target ahead of it.
the low at wave [iv] lies at 2727.
A break of that level in five waves will signal the reversal into wave (C) has begun.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
The action in silver has not added anything significant to the wave count today.
The trade was completely flat,
which might now begin to favor the alternate count slightly.
But I am still wary of this rally give the main wave count.
Tomorrow;
I am willing to hold off again before pulling the trigger on that alternate count.
If the price breaks above 15.44 tomorrow,
then I will switch over.
for now,s
watch for another possible fall in wave [c] to break 14.49 and complete wave ‘2’.